Article 50: Brexit and Uncertainty

1. Article 50: Brexit and Uncertainty Paul Cadman MD Mentor Political Advisor

2. Article 50: Brexit and uncertainty • Paul Cadman • Why are we here ? • What is Article 50 ? • What does triggering Article 50 mean ? • What could possibly go wrong? • Uncertainty is an opportunity • 2019 • Manufacturing Matters • The 7 Fundamentals of business success

3. Paul Cadman • Born in Birmingham • Undiagnosed dyslexia and school Fighting all the way • Fire Service • Mergers & Acquisitions • Automotive turnaround • Forces Recruitment • Politics and columnist

4. Why are we here ? • Nostalgia in the face of globalised uncertainty • Constraints provided by the EU • Ideology • Immigration

5. What is Article 50 ? Lisbon Treaty 1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

6. What does triggering Article 50 mean? • Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 shortly before 12:30pm on March 29 2017. This means Britain should officially leave the EU no later than April 2019. • For the next two years, Britain will negotiate a deal for leaving the EU, a process that's likely to be lengthy and complicated.  • Any deal must be approved by a “qualified majority” of EU member states and can be vetoed by the European Parliament.

7. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOSp_Xm5zDs

8. What could possibly go wrong?

9. Uncertainty is an opportunity This is how I am responding to the uncertainty created by Brexit • My manifesto for 2019 and onwards • Manufacturing Matters • The 7 Fundamentals of business success

10. 2019 • Get the tax avoiders to pay what they should • By British made/grown products & services • 50 year infrastructure plan • Regionalise health & education • Incentivise local production of clean energy • Pick trade partners carefully • Give power to volunteers and communities • Invest in SME

11. Manufacturing Matters • Manufacturing Matters is located in Snow Hill, Birmingham • The team comprises industry leaders in manufacturing, IT, finance, marketing, education & training and lobbying & representation • Deliver the 10 pillars in the Industrial strategy

12. Manufacturing Matters 2 • Manufacturing Matters is targeted to providing support for business growth to small and medium sized manufacturers in the UK • It uses a mix of industry expertise, industry influence, access to capital and marketing to transform manufacturing businesses

13. Manufacturing Matters 3 • The manufacturing sector has been stagnating since its heyday in the 1950s and 1960s • Poor industrial strategy has left the sector without the leadership, infrastructure and capability that our overseas competitors possess • Combining a range of skills with commercial funding means that our interventions take a strategic rather than short term approach

14. Manufacturing Matters 4 • Leaving the EU provides us with the opportunity to forge new trading partnerships across the world • Manufacturing, once the envy of the globe, can be at the forefront of such trading relationships • A low cost, low tax, low regulation industrial environment will not enhance the UK’s global reputation. A strong manufacturing base underpinned by highly performing small and medium sized manufacturers will

15. Manufacturing Matters 5 • Are we looking for small and medium sized manufacturing companies who are serious about growth and have an appetite for export ? • Are looking for businesses that are prepared to enter into a risk/reward partnership to secure high growth ? • Are we looking for businesses that are failing to deliver their potential with leaders/owners who are perhaps tired or unable to face the requirements of Industry 4.0 ?

16. The 7 Fundamentals of business success • Fire • Earth • Water • Air • Time • Poetry • Vision • By Paul Cadman expected winter 2017

18. Parting shot Unless you are clear about your purpose and your values and are doing something that you really care about, it is difficult to act as a leader: You are unlikely to possess the will and the resilience that are needed to carry you through the inevitable uncertainties and setbacks. Why Should Anyone Be Led by You: Goffee & Jones (2006)