NASA

1. NASA/Air Force Cost Modelpresented by Keith SmithScience Applications International Corporation2002 SCEA National Conference June 11 -14

2. Contents Introduction Model Evolution Redesign Overview NAFCOM Features NAFCOM Demonstration

4. NAFCOM Database NAFCOM is based on spacecraft data from the Resource Data Storage and Retrieval Database (REDSTAR) REDSTAR is NASA�s major repository of cost, technical, and programmatic information including over 25,000 documents 540 companies, government agencies, universities, and aerospace societies represented Total program to subcomponent cost data Information on spacecraft bus, attached payloads, engines, launch vehicles, upper stages, scientific instruments, aircraft, DoD, cost models and cost estimating, schedules, ground and launch operations, mission operations, Lessons Learned The database currently includes 122 missions including: 76 unmanned earth orbiting, 24 unmanned planetary, 11 launch vehicles, 8 manned, 3 engines

5. NAFCOM Evolution Since 1990, eight versions of NAFCOM have been developed by SAIC with increasing levels of capability.

6. Limitations with existing framework The amount of time it takes to create a NAFCOM estimate Every estimate must be built from scratch � analogous searches, WBS development, technical inputs on many screens, etc. Requires significant training and thorough understanding of mechanics of using the model and of the content and nature of the database Limited interface in a Collaborative Engineering Environment Speed to delivery of new versions Addition of new modules is difficult and requires more programming due to evolved code over the past ten years

7. A new, simplified user interface has been designed using a template-based methodology. The template-based estimating methodology allows users to quickly create a complete estimate. Common spacecraft and launch vehicle configurations have been identified and used to develop baseline WBSs. These WBSs serve as the templates for the development of an estimate within NAFCOM. A graphical wizard guides the user by posing questions that drill down to the most appropriate estimating template.

11. NAFCOM Features Subsystem Level Complexity Generators Innovative application of multiple cost drivers The equations follow the form: Cost = C * Weight ^ W * Inheritance ^ X * Technology ^ Y * Management ^ Z Data driven, statistically based Documents estimating assumptions Minimizes the use of subjective inputs Repeatable and verifiable Nine new complexity generators have been developed including SRM, propulsion (less engines), OMS, TVC, recovery, landing, thermal control, crew accommodations, and ECLS. Complexity Generators represent an innovative approach to estimating cost based on numerous cost driving variables. The large NAFCOM database that includes programs over the past 40 years made this possible. Multiple regression techniques combined with sound engineering judgement are used. This approach eliminates the subjective creation of complexity factors and replaces it with variables that represent technical and performance assumptions. This approach was scrutinized this summer by a summer faculty PhD and a recent graduate in mathematics and statistics. Complexity Generators represent an innovative approach to estimating cost based on numerous cost driving variables. The large NAFCOM database that includes programs over the past 40 years made this possible. Multiple regression techniques combined with sound engineering judgement are used. This approach eliminates the subjective creation of complexity factors and replaces it with variables that represent technical and performance assumptions. This approach was scrutinized this summer by a summer faculty PhD and a recent graduate in mathematics and statistics.

17. NAFCOM Demonstration