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Fusion industry report 2021

With growing concerns about global climate change, business invests more and more money in renewable energy, climate tech companies, carbon capture and storage solutions. However, existing technologies cannot deal with all global challenges. The society needs new radical approaches to decrease greenhouse gases emissions.<br><br>Fusion could be a silver bullet, definitely not now, but in a decade it could be a new reliable source of safe and unlimited energy. This industry overlook gives a snapshot of how does fusion work, its industry drivers, value of investment and global market landscape.

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Fusion industry report 2021

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  1. from dream to reality SLIDESMANIA.COM

  2. Summary 1. Climate urgency is rising: we are in extreme need of clean, reliable, baseload power 2. Fusion science is mature enough, especially the magnet confinement approach. But we’re still facing several technological challenges 3. Public spending is a major driver for Fusion R&D and public projects that are far away from commercialization 4. Fusion start-ups are chasing to bring compact and economically viable Fusion power SLIDESMANIA.COM 5. Fast Fusion deployment track – acceleration integration of public resources with a business attitude

  3. Growing population leads to trouble It requires double energy consumption and significantly increases carbon dioxide emissions World population growth Global energy consumption Global CO2 emissions 35 B t 7 TW 9.1 B 30 B t 3.5 TW 7.5 B ⚡ ⚡ 2020  2040    2020 2040 2040 2020 <1% of annual population growth: +1.6 B for 20 years energy demand is projected to double by 2040 +5 B t of CO2for 20 years SLIDESMANIA.COM Source: Resources for the Future

  4. Growth of CO2 is a game-changing for climate… SLIDESMANIA.COM Source: Ed Hawkins

  5. …and could increase the number of natural disasters SLIDESMANIA.COM Source: France 24

  6. We need urgent action on a global scale To transform the global energy sector from fossil-based to zero-carbon by the 2ndhalf of the century Drop-in emissions by 2030 relative to 2019 Drop-in emissions by 2040 relative to 2019 Rate of emission reduction to 2030 30% 75% 3.2% to reach net-zero in 2050 to reach net-zero in 2050 year over year SLIDESMANIA.COM Source: BNEF

  7. Race to Net-zero is on The majority of the countries committed to achieving carbon- neutrality in 2050 SLIDESMANIA.COM Source: Visual Capitalist

  8. Market signals: half of Fortune 500 companies made CO2 reduction commitments, investors go there too Renewables (RES) funding is catching up with upstream funds, majors have to diversify their asset bases Company 2030 absolute reduction 2050 25% 30% 30-40% Net Zero - - - SLIDESMANIA.COM - Source: IEA

  9. What technologies are the best candidates to reduce CO2 emissions? fossil fuels + CCS nuclear RES + storage SLIDESMANIA.COM

  10. What technologies are the best candidates? fossil fuels + CCS nuclear RES + storage - other than CO2 emissions: NOx, SO2, C2OH12 - possible technological disasters - CO2 capture is energy-intensive - still expensive - demo plants exist - long-lived radioactive waste - possible technological disasters/radioactive contamination - expensive - mature tech - no heat as by-product (except CSP) - recycling of old equipment - need a lot of space - need well-established grid infrastructure - expensive - pre-mature tech SLIDESMANIA.COM

  11. To decarbonize we need to focus on these crucial questions ? Speed - Would it be possible to deploy technology fast enough to resist climate change? ? Scale - To what extent could we implement this or that technology? ? Cost - How much would it cost to use this or that technology? ? Space - Do we have enough land for it? SLIDESMANIA.COM

  12. To charge our smartphones, cook, storage food, pump water we still need abundant baseload power SLIDESMANIA.COM

  13. How long do we know about Fusion? - Fusion is a typical process inside the Sun and other stars, formed of plasma - Small ionized particles of gases (plasma state) join to make larger ones and release a lot of energy - Immense gravity compresses the core of the star to high densities and temperatures - To replicate this process on the Earth, we need to get the fuel (plasma) dense and hot enough and confine it for a long enough period x x SLIDESMANIA.COM density temperature confinement time Source: Picture

  14. To have Fusion on Earth, we need plasma Plasma is the 4thstate of matter – ionized gas, i.e. when the temperature is so hot that electrons of gas atoms rip away and form charged particles Source: UKAEA

  15. What is fusion reaction? 3H Tritium 2H Deuterium reaction starts with + 180 mln F temperature He Helium Δm = E = Δm*c2

  16. Types of confinement SLIDESMANIA.COM Tokamak Mini tokamak Source: Nature

  17. Types of confinement Magneto-inertial confinement Linear (colliding beams) reactor SLIDESMANIA.COM Source: Nature

  18. Types of confinement Stellarator Inertial (Laser) Fusion SLIDESMANIA.COM Source: Nature

  19. What’s the hitch? There are still several challenges to overcome in achieving stable fusion power generation: the ratio of power output and power input, duration of confinement x x density temperature confinement time Q = !!"# !$%> 1 high temperature requires a lot of energy (Pin) plasma is unstable, so still needs to increase the time SLIDESMANIA.COM

  20. Where are we now? - So far the tokamak concept has made the most progress - Every concept tries to achieve “ignition” – the point where fusion reaction becomes self-sustain and generates enough energy (Pin) to heat plasma - We still need to get conditions, when the density, temperature, and confinement time together are high enough for Fusion to occur and keep up themselves Source: Progress toward fusion energy breakeven and gain as measured against the Lawson criterion

  21. How does it work, the most promising approach - magnet confinement? Vacuum vessel Magnetic fields Plasma current Plasma exhaust Plasma is contained in a ring-shaped vessel under a vacuum Magnetic coils – toroidal & poloidal – create 3D magnetic field, keeping hot plasma away from machine walls Puffing gases into vessel & using high voltage to create plasma. Its current induced by a central magnetic coil. The current heats plasma Excess heat from the hot plasma is exhausted through magnetic divertors. Streams of plasma are diverted to resistant plates Source: CCFE

  22. Density matters 1 kg 100 kg of uranium 6 000 000 kg of natural gas 10 000 000 kg of coal ≈ ≈ ≈ SLIDESMANIA.COM of fusion fuel

  23. Deuterium + Tritium (DT) – the best bet for replicating Fusion on Earth Various fuel mixtures involve isotopes of hydrogen with neutron creation or not. By far, the easiest one = deuterium + tritium (DT) Binding energy per nucleon Probability of fusion reaction vs. temperature Source: Sun in a bottle? Pie in the Sky!

  24. Possible fuel mix The threshold temperature for Fusion to occur is around 10 keV or 100,000,000 K 100 million K ≈ 100 million ºC ≈ 180 million ºF Temperature required to initiate fusion reaction, MeV MeV Deuterium + Tritium DT Deuterium + Deuterium DD Deuterium + Helium DHe3 proton + Boron pB11 D + T →4He + n + 17.6MeV D + D → H + T + 4.03MeV or D + D → n + 3He + 3.27MeV D + 3He → H + 4He + 18.35MeV 1p + 11B → 34He + 8.7MeV SLIDESMANIA.COM aneutronic reactions

  25. Where can we excavate those isotopes? Deuterium and tritium are isotopes of hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe Deuterium – deuterium is quite common – about 1 out of every 5,000 hydrogen atoms in seawater is in the form of deuterium. This means our oceans contain many tons of deuterium Tritium – tritium is a radioactive isotope that decays relatively quickly (12,5 years) and is rare in nature – natural way of tritium production – hydrogen interactions with cosmic rays – enriching more abundant element of lithium by energetic neutrons we can generate tritium (breeding) – energy-producing nuclear fission reactors such as the heavy water CANDU is a source of tritium as well

  26. All shades of Fusion Pros Cons - Abundant dispatchable energy source - Need additional time for research and development - Reliable, no dependency on sun, wind, tides, etc. - Extremely high temperature required => development of new materials and technical approaches - High energy density - Plenty of widely spread fuel - Tritium breeding - No CO2 emissions - Radioactive waste - Possible by-products: heat, hydrogen SLIDESMANIA.COM - Much smaller land-use footprint

  27. Fusion could be cost-competitive Although its high CAPEX, Fusion levelized cost of electricity accounting external costs could be a worthy alternative to other power generation approaches Capital investment comparison Total LCOE including external costs Source: Approximation of the economy of fusion energy

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  29. Fusion still mainly funded by public Global energy market vs. estimated upcoming public funding on Fusion energy R&D, $ mln* number of countries with public fusion programs 25 3 451 790 // 1 100 1 000 900 500 universities, labs, and organizations involved 69 250 150 110 5 1 operating fusion reactors 95 SLIDESMANIA.COM NA NA NA *Except spending on ITER project

  30. World’s biggest public Fusion effort – ITER ITER – experimental fusion reactor of magnetic confinement (tokamak) being constructed in southern France and supported by 35 nations - involved countries: China, EU, USA, Russia, South Korea, and Japan - ITER’s capacity = 500 MV (Q=10), - to achieve a deuterium-tritium plasma in which the reaction is sustained through internal heating - to test tritium breeding - to demonstrate safety nature of fusion energy - approximately total price ≈ $22 B (!!!) deuterium- tritium operation begins main assembly phase first plasma SLIDESMANIA.COM 2020 2025 2027 2035 Source: ITER

  31. Map of public Fusion projects 5 1 1 3 1 2 2 3 1 3 1 11 5 - operating tokamak - planned or under construction tokamak - operating stellarator/heliotron - operating laser/inertial 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 5 4 1 1 1 5 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 - operating alternative concepts* 3 SLIDESMANIA.COM Source: FUSDIS * Alternative concepts%* beam-target; dense plasma focus; field reversed configuration; inertial electrostatic fusion; levitated dipole; magnetic mirror machine; magnetized target fusion; pinch; pulsed power generated electron beam; reverse field pinch; simple magnetized torus; space propulsor; spheromak

  32. Main Fusion R&D centres Although plenty of science centres, laboratories and universities are engaged in Fusion research, existing several big scientific clusters – main supporters of fusion energy Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory QST Rokkasho Fusion Energy Research Centre Main project: together with EU created (IFERC) International Fusion Energy Research Centre to develop the design of fusion devices, to study and develop materials for these devices Main project: NIF – large laser-based inertial confinement fusion (ICF) research device Annual funding: $2.5 B Number of employees: 7 900 Hefei Institutes of Physical Science Main project: EAST – Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak Ongoing project – CRAFT (Comprehensive Research Facility for Fusion Technology) is a platform to develop and test fusion technologies Culham Centre for Fusion Energy Main project: JET – is an operational magnetically confined plasma physics experiment collectively used over 30 European laboratories Number of employees: 900 SLIDESMANIA.COM

  33. Government affairs: regulators of the next century Currently UK, USA and Japan lead Fusion regulation development. These countries are eager to deploy it as an energy source and have all chances to be the first to legislate Fusion United Kingdom USA - developed and published Fusion Strategy, aiming to build a world-leading fusion industry which can export fusion technology around the world - most fusion technologies are already regulated by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) under the Atomic Energy Act (AEA), based solely on the fact that they consume or generate tritium – radioactive isotope - the first country creating a detailed plan of legislation for safe and effective rollout of fusion energy: Fusion Green Paper - through special program – The Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) – is going to develop private public partnership and special regulatory regimes - plan to build a prototype fusion power plant, STEP (Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production) by 2040 SLIDESMANIA.COM

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  35. Public projects: too slow and too expensive Inefficiency and extremely high costs of Russian state corporation responsible for space flights give an opportunity for the private sector in aerospace manufacturing SLIDESMANIA.COM

  36. SpaceX moment of fusion industry Climate urgency and tech breakthroughs bring private fusion companies on the stage Number of private fusion companies, # Technical approach taken by fusion companies Funding for fusion companies, $ M ≈.$ 4.2 bn $ 0.5 bn $ 1.8 bn General Fusion $ 0.1 bn Helion Energy CFS Source: FIA

  37. Map of private Fusion 1 2 1 3 1 6 - operating tokamak - planned or under construction tokamak - operating stellarator/heliotron - operating laser/inertial 2 1 1 1 1 2 10 1 1 1 - operating alternative concepts* 1 1 SLIDESMANIA.COM Source: FUSDIS * Alternative concepts%* beam-target; dense plasma focus; field reversed configuration; inertial electrostatic fusion; levitated dipole; magnetic mirror machine; magnetized target fusion; pinch; pulsed power generated electron beam; reverse field pinch; simple magnetized torus; space propulsor; spheromak

  38. Technical approaches and fuel mix Tokamak Spheromak Magneto-inertial Stellarator Inertial Alternatives DT Fuel mixture DD pB11 SLIDESMANIA.COM DHe3 Source: FIA

  39. Unicorn start-up companies Only these three have raised more than $3 B of private funding, all of them are building their generation facilities and actively test technical viability Comnomwealth Fusion Systems Helion Energy General Fusion Year founded: 2002 Approach: magneto-inertial confinement Fuel mix: DT Total Investment: >$300 M CEO: Christofer M. Mowry Year founded: 2013 Approach: magneto- inertial confinement Fuel mix: DHe3 Total Investment: $578 M CEO: David Kirtley Year founded: 2018 Approach: magnetic confinement Fuel mix: DT Total Investment: $2.5 B CEO: Bob Mumgaard

  40. Fusion investor: who, why, how much? Over 100 capitalists have already funded Fusion for more than $4.2 B. 48%1of fusion companies have raised 73% of total industry investment Structure of Fusion investors Who has funded Fusion among the billionaires? Endowment 4% Other 5% Oil&gas majors 4% Funds invested in >1 company - Temasek - Google Ventures - Jameel Investment - LowerCarbon Management 11% Jeff Bezos Bill Gates George Soros PE/VC 62% Net worth 14% Oil and gas majors believing in Fusion Started funds focused on Fusion - Energy Impact Partner - LowerCarbon SLIDESMANIA.COM 1. Estimation based on the list of companies – members of FIA

  41. Announced timelines General Fusion: targets reactors for sale in early 2030s Tokamak Energy: pilot fusion power plant in 2030s ITER: test runs Helion: Net electricity (small amounts) from Polaris reactor TAE: reactors ‘ready for commercializati on’ by late 2020s. ITER: to run fusion with DT fuel 2040 2030 CFS: First fusion machine expected to generate more energy than it uses CFS: aims to have 200 MW plant supplying electricity grid in early 2030s. UKAEA: STEP fusion power plant can supply energy to national grid 2025 2035 General Fusion: operate UK demonstration plant. China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor might complete construction in 2030s First Light Fusion: anticipates its first power plant in 2030s SLIDESMANIA.COM Source: Nature

  42. Global Fusion landscape

  43. Challenges to deal with 1. Structural materials 8. Investment 2. Heating and current drive systems 9. Resource availability 10. Supply chains 3. Corrosion and radiolysis 11. Workforce 4. Regulation 12. Siting 5. Waste 13. Markets 6. Proliferation 14. Social acceptance 7. Export controls SLIDESMANIA.COM

  44. Market perspectives & possible synergy - hydrogen, ammonia and methanol production - heat for industry: f.e. oil refining, steel refining - complement RES - magnets - medical isotopes SLIDESMANIA.COM

  45. It’s time for public-private collaboration Until now, Fusion was focused on technological innovations and not on commercialization Private sector: don’t have financial resources, capabilities, and equipment to do it alone Public sector: provide world-class scientific R&D Private Can provide technical support and expertise private- public partnership Led by entrepreneurs, who can focus on developing technologies within limited capacities Public SLIDESMANIA.COM

  46. Contacts Twitter: @bananelectrons SLIDESMANIA.COM

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