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Outer Space Development Trends . . .

Outer Space Development Trends . . . . an outsiders’ perspective Copyright 2004 E.E. Weeks. What Outer Space Development Means. Outer space development means different things to different people, and this changes over time. It can mean:

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Outer Space Development Trends . . .

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  1. Outer Space Development Trends . . . an outsiders’ perspective Copyright 2004 E.E. Weeks

  2. What Outer Space Development Means Outer space development means different things to different people, and this changes over time. It can mean: • space exploration, studying planets, moons and stars, and entering into outer space through either robotic or manned (human) missions • advancements in biological and other sciences and technology, and discoveries and spin off benefits • satellite telecommunications – cell phones, the Internet and cable television • remote sensing, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), visual imagery, mapping or meteorology satellites

  3. space transportation vehicles, spaceports, launch services and old versus new space vehicles • space tourism, adventure travel, joyrides, parabolic flights, suborbital flights, short stays in low earth or geostationary orbit in orbital hotels • space settlement, space colonization, long stays in artificial, closed-ecology human space habitats in free orbit powered by solar power • mining and extracting minerals from asteroids, The Moon and Mars such as gold, platinum, magnesium, calcium, iron and many others • The search, discovery and communication with extraterrestrial intelligence To

  4. SPACE EXPLORATION • Until recently, the U.S. and former Soviet Union were the only two space superpowers. • Today, many countries have activated their own programs of sending spacecraft and satellites into space, to Mars, and to the Moon. • China, Europe (e.g.. France, Germany, Italy, Russia, United Kingdom), India and Japan for example.

  5. Moon Missions Mankind has gone to the Moon more times than people realize.

  6. While Neil Armstrong and Edwin "Buzz" Aldrin were the first humans to land on the Moon on July 16, 1969 (Apollo 11), there were fifty-seven prior missions to the Moon. This included undertakings by both the U.S. and U.S.S.R. There were twenty-two subsequent missions to the Moon. Altogether, mankind has arranged and attempted eighty trips to the moon. Some were successful, others were unsuccessful. Some were manned, others were unmanned - rovers, orbiters and the like[1]. • [1] For a complete list of the various missions to the Moon, including, orbiting, manned landings and unmanned spacecraft see http://www.planetary.org/learn/missions/moonmissions.html.

  7. MISSIONS TO MARS • On January 4 and January 25, 2004 twin robots Spirit and Opportunity landed on Mars. Mars Exploration Rover Spirit, after an interplanetary cruise of almost half a year and 487 million km (303 million miles) touched down softly on red planet Mars, in the intended landing site region, Gusev Crater, 184.8d W, 14.8d S. Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity had a correction maneuver, the first after four months, on January 16, 2004, just little more than a week and 12.5 million km (7.8 million miles) before arriving at Mars. After an interplanetary cruise of more than 6 month, Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity successfully touched down on January 25, 2004, 5:05 UT (January 24, 2004, 9:05 p.m. PST) at its intended landing site Meridiani Terra (2.07 S, 6.08 W).

  8. Spirit Photo of Mars taken January 8, 2004

  9. Opportunity Photo on Mars taken January 25, 2004

  10. Cassini-Huygens' Trip to Saturn and Titan

  11. In July 2004 NASA’s Cassini-Huygens spacecraft arrived at Saturn and its Moon Titan and sent new information regarding the two celestial bodies. Cassini-Huygens mission is a cooperative project of NASA, the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency[1]. • [1] For more information about the Cassini-Huygens mission, visit http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov and the Cassini imaging team home page, http://ciclops.org .

  12. China's Manned Space Program THE SHENZHOU 5 China's first manned spacecraft, is expected to blast into orbit sometime this fall. The nine- meter-long craft, which holds two pairs of solar panels and four main engines, is designed to carry up to three astronauts. If the mission is successful, China was the third nation (after Russia and the U.S.) to send a manned vehicle into space. Scientific American, 10/13/03 In addition, China is “planning to establish a base on the Moon [by 2010] to exploit its mineral resources” for the stated purpose being “Our long-term goal is to set up a base on the Moon and mine its riches for the benefit of humanity.” BBC News, May 20, 2002

  13. Europe’s First Moon Mission The European Space Agency's SMART-1 spacecraft took off this Fall for a trip to the moon -- with an arrival date of December 2004. • The unmanned flight, Europe's first to the moon, was launched on an Ariane 5 rocket from a base in Kourou, French Guiana.

  14. Plans have been put into place for NASA to use nuclear propulsion, since it is believed that nuclear propulsion Nuclear propulsion is capable (in theory) of achieving much faster speeds than conventional rockets, and that they will use far less fuel. This could cut travel time to Mars[1]. [1] "Plans Put into Place for NASA to go Nuclear", BBC News World Edition, Online Science Editor (January 22, 2003) at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2684329.stm. A New Space Race: Project Prometheus

  15. NASA's New Budget

  16. NASA's New Space Policy Budget Chart

  17. The Significance of SpaceShipOne • October 4, 2004 SpaceShipOne won the X Prize. Mike Melville piloted the spacecraft. Just a few months earlier, in April of 2004 the Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation issued the world’s first license for a private sub-orbital manned rocket flight to Burt Rutan’s Scaled Composites, Mojave, California.

  18. The license issued is for a sequence of sub-orbital flights spanning a one-year period. SpaceShipOne was one of several aircraft in the running for the X-Prize competition, When it reached an altitude above 62.14 miles (100 km) on September 29, 2004, SpaceShipOne became the first private manned spaceflight[1]. Before this all trips into space were undertaken by the government. Paul Allen, the billionaire who co-founder of Microsoft, funded the SpaceShipOne project[2]. • [1] See www.xprize.org. • [2]Business Wire (December 17, 2003).

  19. SPACE INDUSTRIES and COMMERCIALIZATION In the early stages of space activities only a few states engaged in the use of outer space. Today, however, commercial space activities have grown dramatically in recent years. States, state institutions, international governmental organizations and private entities are actively engaged in the commercial use of outer space. Several space industries have gone through the process of commercialization: Launch Services Telecommunications Satellites Remote Sensing Satellites Direct Broadcasting Satellites Space Transportation Space Stations

  20. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Benefits from Space • Spinoff is NASA's annual premiere publication featuring successfully commercialized NASA technology. For more than 40 years, the NASA Commercial Technology Program has facilitated the transfer of NASA technology to the private sectors. The resulting commercialization has contributed to the development of commercial products and services in the fields of health and medicine, industry, consumer goods, computer technology, and environment. • See http://www.sti.nasa.gov/tto/ • spinoff.html

  21. Examples of Spinoff Benefits • Wastewater Purification Systems • Solar Energy Enlightenment • Cordless Products • Heart Rate Monitor • Portable Computer • The Internet • Cell Phones • Cable Television • Laser Technology • Computer Reader for the Blind • Smoke Detectors • Computer Bar Codes • Quartz Timing Crystals • Shock Absorbing Tennis Shoes • Medical Equipment • Pacemakers and Heart Pumps • Sunglasses and Radiation Blocking Lenses • Scratch Resistant Lenses • Advancements in firefighting protective gear • Weather Information AND MANY, MANY MORE

  22. ARTIFICIAL SATELLITES Sputnik was the very first satellite; it was launched by Russia in October of 1957. This was the beginning of the space race for national prestige and scientific achievement. It was also the beginning of a new age of communications.

  23. SATELLITES Today There is a multitude of satellites for: telecommunications, remote sensing, weather reporting & television broadcasting.

  24. SATELLITE INDUSTRY STATISTICS • According to "Space News Top 50: 2004" in the Space News Business Report of August 2, 2004, based on company questionnaires, annual reports and interviews with corporate officials and analysts, the top grossing space firms for 2003 include: • Boeing Co. (U.S.) at $9,358,000,000 • Lockheed Martin Corp. (U.S.) at $8,700,000,000 • EADS (Netherlands) at $3,013,000,000 • Raytheon (U.S.) at $2,978,000,000 • Northrop Grumman Corp. (U.S.) at $2,800,000,000 • Science Applications International Corp. (U.S.) at $1,750,000,000 • United Space Alliance (U.S.) at $1,684,000,000 • Alcatel (France) at $1,506,000,000

  25. The DirecTV Group (U.S.) at $1,322,000,000 • ATK (U.S.) at $1,134,000,000 • Mitsubishi Electric Corp. (Japan) at $1,018,000,000 • Honeywell, Inc. (U.S.) at $775,000,000 • Arianespace SA (France) at $1,529,000,000 • Alenia Spazio (Italy) at $637,000,000 • L-3 Communications (U.S.) at $619,000,000 • Orbital Sciences Corp. (U.S.) at $582,000,000

  26. Trimble Navigation Ltd. (U.S.) at $541,000,000 • Computer Sciences Corp. (U.S.) at $500,000,000 • Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. (U.S.) at $476,000,000 • Loral Space & Communications (U.S.) at $474,000,000 • General Dynamics (U.S.) at $474,000,000 • Harris Corp. (U.S.) at $428,000,000 • Snecma (France) at $421,000,000

  27. United Technologies Corp. (U.S.) at $415,000,000 • Eastman Kodak Co. (U.S.) at $383,000,000 • ITT Industries, Inc. (U.S.) at $378,000,000 • EchoStar Communications Corp. (U.S.) at $244,000,000 • ViaSat, Inc. (U.S.) at $239,000,000 • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (Japan) at $216,000,000 • Aerojet (U.S.) at $213,000,000

  28. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (Japan) at $190,000,000 • Gilat Satellite Networks, Ltd. (Israel) at $190,000,000 • MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, Ltd. (Canada) at $190,000,000 • Swales (U.S.) at $162,000,000 • EMS Technologies (U.S.) at $126,000,000 • MAN Technologies AG (Germany) at $121,000,000 • OHB-System AG (Germany) at $121,000,000

  29. Jacobs Sverdrup (U.S.) at $118,000,000 • Goodrich Corp. (U.S.) at $114,000,000 • Spacehab, Inc. (U.S.) at $95,000,000 • ND SatCom AG (Germany) at $92,000,000 • Saab Ericsson Space AB (Sweden) at $86,000,000 • Contraves Space AG (Switzerland) at $83,000,000 • Integral Systems, Inc. (U.S.) at $83,000,000

  30. Dutch Space B.V. (Netherlands) at $82,000,000 • Com Dev International, Ltd. (Canada) at $70,000,000 • PSI Group (U.S.) at $70,000,000 • Qineti (U.K.) at $44,000,000 • Analytical Graphics (U.S.) at $38,000,000 • Vega Group, plc (U.K.) at $36,000,000. For more information see http://dev.space.com/spacenews/top50_2004.html.

  31. Satellites also help to monitor the weather and environmental changes.

  32. US LEGISLATION Over the last four decades, successive US Congresses and Presidential Administrations have sought ways to improve the prospects for successful commercialization in two major ways: transfer of technology developed in government laboratories to private industry; and creation of policies that promoted private financing of commercial opportunities in space. Those efforts have been reflected in a series of legislative initiatives - most notably in satellite communications, remote sensing, and launch services.

  33. US LEGISLATION ENCOURAGING The Shift From Government to Private • Communications Satellite Act of 1962 • Land Remote Sensing Commercialization Act of 1984 • Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984 • Land Remote Sensing Policy Act of 1992 • The Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984 • The National Space Transportation Policy of 1994 • The Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004

  34. Corporate Joint Ventures Within the past ten years there has been an astonishing increase in the quantity and quality of international cooperative activities. Many involve former political adversaries. Aldrin (1998: 115) provides the following examples: • Boeing Sea launch venture a venture b/w Norwegian, American, Russian and Ukrainian firms • Lockheed Martin's joint venture with Russian firms RKK Khrunichev and RKK Energiia Globalstar's venture to jointly produce communications satellites with CAST in China; • TRW's cooperative arrangements with the governments of Korea and Taiwan; • Pratt and Whitney's marketing and co-development venture with Energomash; • The Starstem joint venture with the Progress Rocket and Space Complex and Areospatiale; and • The Celestri broadband communications system involving USA's Motorola and Frances' Matra.

  35. Evolution in Space Transportation • Ascender is a small sub-orbital spaceplane intended for use as a reusable sounding rocket and for carrying passengers on space experience flights. • Spacecab is an enlarged and refined Ascender air launched from a supersonic carrier aeroplane. It uses proven materials and existing engines. It is designed to launch small satellites, transport supplies and crew to space stations, and to pioneer orbital space tourism. • Spacebus is and enlarged and mature development of Spacecab, which should have a cost per person to orbit of around $10,000. This could be achieved in about fifteen years.

  36. SPACE TRANSPORTATIONLaunch Vehicles, Rockets and Spaceplanes • The X-15 was making regular sub-orbital flights thirty five years ago. It was the first, and still the only, fully reusable space-faring aeroplane. The Technology exists for advanced spaceships. Spaceflight Revolution (2003), a new book from David Ashford, founder and director of Bristol Spaceplanes Limited, discusses this. Ashford was the recipient of the ORBIT award in the "Visionaries" category at the recent Space Tourism Pioneer Awards

  37. "The X PRIZE Competition was created to attract the best and brightest of today's aerospace engineers to develop private spaceships for space tourism," The total number of teams now registered to win the X PRIZE exceeds 20 from six nations: Argentina, Canada, Romania, Russia, UK, and the United States." http://www.xprize.org/press/press_release.html "I think the X PRIZE should be viewed as the beginning of one giant leap..." Tom HanksActor,Director and Producer"The X PRIZE is a masterstroke, a brilliant idea. What the X PRIZE could very well..." THE X PRIZE COMPETION10 Million Dollars

  38. INTRODUCTIONBold New Steps • In January, 2004 President Bush articulated a progressive space initiative for the Moon, Mars & Beyond, to establish a Moon base and regular manned missions to Mars. • Leaders from China and India had expressed similar ambitions for space in 2003. • Public perceptions about space have shifted to space for everyone instead of only for astronauts. • Space tourism companies have begun selling trips to space to the general public. • Political actors are lobbying for relaxation of FAA restrictions for public space travel. • New discourse is calling for full commercialization & free marketization of space. • Community discussion forums have been created to change public perceptions. • Think tanks between space enthusiasts and the entertainment industry are creating themes to get the general public excited about outer space development. • New & proposed domestic laws for new space industries are pending before the US Congress • Conference themes for the International Astronautical Federation, the International Academy of Astronautics, and the International Institute of Space Law are increasingly centering around commercialization themes • Space mining proposals are being seriously considered by key entrepreneurs

  39. SPACE INDUSTRIES NOT YET COMMERICALIZED Since the mid 1990s newer space industries have been discussed within the space development discourse (articles, books, movies, conversations etc.), and as the subject of numerous conferences, symposia and colloquia. These discussions and plans are articulated around the idea of commercializing the following industries: Space Tourism Space Mining Space Settlement

  40. SPACE TOURISM Q: What is Space Tourism? A: The notion that space is a place for laypeople (non astronauts) to visit and enjoy some day. Three Phases: • Suborbital day trips (joyrides) • Short stays in space-based facilities (low Earth orbit) • Longer stays in space – further into space or on other celestial bodies Space tourism is not a new concept, but has been around since the 1950s, or before. It was ignored until recently. Everything you ever wanted to know can be found at http://www.spacefuture.com/tourism/timeline.shtml

  41. SPACE ADVENTURES, LTD. July 22, 2002 XCOR Aerospace and Space Adventures, Ltd., announced a marketing agreement that enables Space Adventures to offer the first 600 flights to 62 miles (100 km) altitude aboard XCOR's Xerus sub-orbital vehicle, designed specifically for space tourist flights. The tickets cost $98,000 per. Space Adventures has already sold over $2 million dollars. http://www.spaceadventures.com/press/072202.html

  42. SPACE TOURISM MARKET • According to a recent study commissioned by Space Adventures, the sub-orbital space tourist market could generate revenues of over $1 billion annually. • Space Adventures has over 100 sub-orbital reservations and is currently accepting bookings for sub-orbital flights at $98,000.

  43. SPACE STATIONS The International Space Station Source NASA 1999 • Humans traveling to space will need somewhere to stay. • The International Space Station has established a knowledge base. Research and information from this project will have vast implications for the future space infrastructure.

  44. SPACE HOTELS, ORBITAL HOTELS • The hotels themselves will vary greatly - from being quite spartan in the early days, to huge luxury structures at a later date. • Luckily it's easy to design basic accommodation in orbit - because it was already done in 1973 with the "Skylab" space station. • Minimal living facilities require a cylindrical module with air-conditioning, some windows, and a kitchen and bathroom. But zero gravity allows you to build almost any shape and size, in almost any direction. • http://www.spacefuture.com/tourism/hotels.shtml Shimizu Corporation's popular Space Hotel design

  45. NASA’S SPACE LAUNCH INITIATIVE • NASA is revolutionizing its space transportation system to significantly increase safety and reliability, while reducing cost, through its Space Launch Initiative. • The design and development of a next-generation transport vehicle — an Orbital Space Plane — is one of the objectives of the Space Launch Initiative. • The Orbital Space Plane program will develop the entire space transportation system, including ground operations and all supporting technologies needed to conduct missions to and from the International Space Station.

  46. NASA’S SPACE GRANT PROGRAM • Space Grant supports both graduate and undergraduate students through a network of 52 university-based consortia in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. • In 2001, the network involved 820 affiliates, including 530 academic institutions. Each consortium receives fellowship and scholarship funds* from NASA.

  47. SPACEPORTS • This plan was developed by the University and Community College System of Nevada (UCCSN) NASA Space Grant/EPSCoR program based on that program’s vision for aerospace education and research in Nevada.  Its purpose is to provide guidance for the NASA Space Grant/EPSCoR program, and an aerospace vision for the State of Nevada. • Nevada’s Aerospace Future, A 2025 Perspective In 2025 Nevada will have established itself as the Nation’s Western Gateway to Space through the development of one of 5 new national spaceports serving the needs of the international aerospace community.  The Nevada spaceport will be the gateway for aerospace customers in the Great Basin including, including Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, and will also provide a high-altitude launch site for California.  The Nevada spaceport will provide service facilities for both sub-orbital aerospace planes and re-useable launch vehicles.  It will provide cargo, test and integration facilities for payloads for commercial, scientific and national defense missions as well as re-supply missions to the international space station, to lunar bases, and to Mars. • http://www.nevada.edu/epscor/SpacePlan.html

  48. SPACE MINING Corporations, individuals, nations and institutions are planning to tap into the wealth of space by extracting natural resources from the Moon, asteroids and Mars. For example, a chunk of iron-nickel meteorite could have a value of $80 trillion dollars. Gold concentration “is ten times richer than anything being mined on Earth, and the entire platinum group of minerals in there-metals-is 100 times more concentrated than anything being mined on Earth. We are talking about parts per million, parts per billion. . .” Jim Benson quoted in Making Space Happen: Private Space Ventures and the Visionaries Behind Them (2002).

  49. US Laws Encouraging Commercialization • Communications Satellite Act of 1962 • Land Remote Sensing Commercialization Act of 1984 • Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984 • The Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984 • National Space Policy (1989) • Commercial Space Launch Policy (1990) • Commercial Space Policy Guidelines (1991) • National Launch Strategy (1991). • Land Remote Sensing Policy Act of 1992 • National Competitiveness Act of 1992

  50. Commercial Space Competitiveness Act of 1992 • The National Space Transportation Policy of 1994 • The Hydrogen and Fusion Research Authorization Act of 1994 • International Space Station Authorization Act of 1995 • Space Commercialization Promotion Act of 1996 • Spaceports Equity Bill • Act to Encourage the Development of a Commercial Space Industry in the United States, and for Other Purposes of 1998 • Commercial Space Transportation Competitiveness Act of 2000

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