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Travel and Tourism

Travel and Tourism. F. X. Murray Overview of the Travel and Tourism Industry, its importance to the global economy and the significance of civil aviation to that industry. Travel & Tourism Data 1999 and 2010. High Lights Global Data U. S. Data. Travel & Tourism Data

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Travel and Tourism

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  1. Travel and Tourism F. X. Murray Overview of the Travel and Tourism Industry, its importance to the global economy and the significance of civil aviation to that industry.

  2. Travel & Tourism Data1999 and 2010 • High Lights • Global Data • U. S. Data

  3. Travel & Tourism Data and Supporting Reports for the NASA Aeronautics Study Prepared by SAIC

  4. Critique & Technical Discussion of T & T Data • 1993 Data • Criticisms • Revisions • Recent Data System • Cautions

  5. Comparing 1994 & 1999 • No adequate Documentation or Definitions for 1994 Data • Terms not Comparable • Estimating Techniques Different

  6. World Travel & Tourism Council First Estimate of T & T Industry Economic Data--1993 Forecasts for 1994 and 2001 Immediate Objectives Support “Free Trade in the Air” Emphasis on Air transport Show significance of the T & T Industry T & T DATA HISTORY

  7. Industry Generated Data Lacked Documentation & Methodology Not Comparable with Existing Economic Databases Viewed by Others as Self-serving Criticisms of T & T Data

  8. Recommendations of Professionals • Rigorous Methodology • Definitions and Documentation • Links to Existing Official Economic Data Bases • Credible Data Collection Entities

  9. Resulting Data System • Mostother OECD Countries Now Provide Compatible Data • UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs • Collects Data from Most Countries • Uses Methodology & DefinitionsCompatible with OECD Countries

  10. Data for the U. S. • 1995 Whitehouse Conference BEA to Develop Data System • Travel & Tourism Satellite Account Completed 1998 • Methodology and Definitions Rigorously Documented • Integrated into the U. S. Input and Output Accounts • I-O Factors among Industry Groups Developed

  11. United Nations Data Collection • • UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs (Information Office) and UN TourismOrganization • • Now Collecting Data from Most Countries • •Uses Methodology & Definitions Compatible with OECD Countries

  12. Limitations of T & T SA • U. S. Data Based on 1992 Business Census • Assumption--1992 relationships (Input-Output) hold until next Census • I-O Factors revised after 1998 Business Census (Revisions Due Late 1999/Early 2000)

  13. World Travel & Tourism Council • 1999 Forecast Of T & T Economic Impact Derived from 1998 Data • Projection for 2010 is Included • Global and Regional Forecasts for 1999 and Projections for 2010 • General Agreement on Methodology & Terms

  14. Limitations on Newly Released Forecasts & Projections • All OECD Countries Now Report • No Data from Many Smaller Countries • Regional Samples Used for Some (Latin America, Eastern Europe) • E.g., Argentina and Brazil Used to Estimate Latin America • Assumed Growth Rates to 2010

  15. Travel & TourismHigh Lights for 1999 • Travel & Tourism Impact Direct and Indirect upon the Global Economy • 11% of GDP • 200 Million Jobs • 8% of Total Employment • 5.5 Million New Jobs per year until 2010

  16. U. S. Highlights • Data used in WTTC Data System • Importance of US in T & T Industry • Employment • Capital Investment • Government Spending • Federal Agencies • State & Local

  17. Key Points from Global Projection For 2010 For Travel & Tourism • Real Growth 3.3% per year Through 2010 • Economy GDP will be 11% of Global GDP • Employment will be 9% • Tax Revenues at 11.7% of Total

  18. T & T Forecast for 2010 Investment • Government Expenditures to Support T & T Increase at a higher rate than in T & T • Global Capital Investment • $733 B in 1999 and projected to be $1.5 Trillion by 2010. • T & T Capital Investment Grows Faster than Global Investment

  19. United States Data for T & T • Up to 25% of All Direct T & T Expenditures for Airfares • Largest Single Item • T & T GDP $1,067 Billion in 1999 • Japan next highest at $389 B. • T & T GDP Projected at $1.8 Trillion by 2010

  20. U. S. Employment & Government Spending • T & T Economy accounts for 17.5 Million U.S. jobs in 1999 (13.2%) • 20.2 Million U.S. Jobs Expected in 2010 (13.5%) • Governments spent $52.2 Billion for T & T 1999 • By 2010 Projected to reach $85 Billion

  21. Analytical Tools: Direct Economic Factors • Economic Factors for US Transportation Direct Impact per $ of Air Transport $ 1.00 • Primary Ind. (mfg) = .14 • Other Transport = .15 • Services, Misc. = .26 • Value Added = .45 • Primary Industries include Agri., mining, constr., & mfg.; Other Transportation includes pipelines & own transport; Services include finance, insurance, communications, Utilities & Gov’t.

  22. Direct & Indirect Economic Factors • Factors for US Air Transportation Direct & Indirect Requirements: • Per $ of Air Transportation Service • Primary Ind. (mfg) = .35 • Transportation = 1.17 • Services = .47 • Total = 1.99 • The Direct Impact is .99 or approx. $1 to $1: Indirect to Direct

  23. Travel & Tourism Factors • Direct Products & Services Required per $1 expended for Travel & Tourism in the U. S. • Air fares .25 • Lodging .16 • Meals, etc .14 • Shopping .12 • All Other .34 • Total $1.00

  24. Cautionary Notes • Definitions for T & T Economic Measures are cumbersome and difficult to master, e.g. • 1999 the “T & T Industry GDP” is $1,328 Billion, • BUT… “T & T Economy GDP” is $3,549, • AND… “T & T Demand” is $4,475 Billion

  25. Travel & Tourism Industry GDP (Supply) • Includes Direct Value Added Associated with T & T Consumption • Consumer expenditures (durables, nondurables & services) • Travel and Tourism Business Sales (private & public) • Travel and Tourism government expenditures • Travel and Tourism Foreign Trade (visitor exports)

  26. Travel & TourismEconomy GDP • Direct and IndirectValue Added including • T & T Consumption • T & T Capital Investment (Public and Private) • Government Expenditures • T & T foreign Trade

  27. Travel and Tourism Demand Includes • Personal Consumption (Durables, Non-durables, Services) • Business Travel (Corporate & Government) • Visitor Exports Government Expenditures • Capital Investment • Non-visitor Exports (World Tourism)

  28. Industry Perspective of the T & T Satellite Account • Captures all economic activity related to persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment. • For purposes of Satellite Accounting the optimal aggregated measurement is best determined from the demand point of view • Industry prefers the T & T Demand measure (largest measure of activity)

  29. Gross Domestic Product for T & T • GDP of Tourism Industries (Direct and Indirect GDP for Tourism Consumption) • Imports by Tourist Industries • Employment by Tourist Industries

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