Maintenance Plan for the Chicago PM2.5 Nonattainment Area

1. Maintenance Plan for the Chicago PM2.5 Nonattainment Area Illinois Environmental Protection Agency July 14, 2010

2. The Maintenance Plan • The maintenance plan provides for continued attainment of the 1997 annual PM2.5 NAAQS for the Chicago nonattainment area for ten years after U.S. EPA formally redesignates the area to attainment. • The plan provides assurances that if a subsequent violation of the NAAQS occurs, contingency measures would be triggered to prevent further violations. • The plan establishes motor vehicle emissions budgets to assure that increases in miles driven do not result in an increase of emissions.

3. Maintenance Plan Requirements • A comprehensive emission inventory of the precursors of PM2.5 completed for the “attainment year”. • A projection of the emission inventory to a year at least ten years following redesignation and a demonstration that the projected level of emissions is sufficient to maintain the PM2.5 NAAQS. • A commitment that, once redesignated, the state will continue to operate an appropriate monitoring network to verify that the area continues to attain.

4. Maintenance Plan Requirements, cont’d. • A demonstration of legal authority to implement and enforce all control measures. • Provisions for future updates of the inventory to enable tracking of the emission levels, including an annual emissions statement from major sources. • A commitment to submit a revised maintenance plan eight years after redesignation.

5. Maintenance Plan Requirements, cont’d. • A commitment to enact and implement additional contingency control measures expeditiously in response to exceeding specified levels (triggers) or in the event that future violations of the NAAQS occur. • A list of potential contingency measures that could be implemented in such an event. • The state must hold a public hearing on the maintenance plan prior to adoption

6. Annual PM2.5 Design Values in the Chicago Area 2000-2002 2007-2009

7. 2008 Base Year Inventory • Point Sources • Annual emission reports, permit data, etc. • Area Sources • Emission factors and activity levels • On-road mobile sources • MOBILE6.2 model • Off-road mobile sources • NONROAD model • Other data (locomotives, commercial marine vessels, aircraft)

8. Future Year Inventories • 2008 Base Year grown to 2015, 2020 and 2025 • Point and area sources • Growth factors • Shutdowns/changes/consent decrees • Illinois Multi-Pollutant Rule for utilities • On-road mobile sources • MOBILE6.2 • Off-road mobile sources • NONROAD • Growth factors • 3rd airport

9. Chicago PM2.5, NOx, and SO2 Emissions 2002 vs. 2008 2002 2008

10. Chicago PM2.5, NOx, and SO2 Emissions 2008 vs. 2025 2008 2025

11. PM2.5 Emissions 2008 (18,517 tons/yr) 2025 (18,312 tons/yr)

12. NOx Emissions 2008 (219,068 tons/yr) 2025 (114,185 tons/yr)

13. SO2 Emissions 2008 (96,169 tons/yr) 2025 (62,666 tons/yr)

14. PM2.5 Emission Trend

15. NOx Emission Trend

16. SO2 Emission Trend

17. Contingency Plan • A commitment to enact and implement additional measures in the event that future violations of the NAAQS occur • Level I and Level II “Triggers” • Control measures to be implemented after States determine appropriate response

18. Level I and Level II Triggers • Level I: Annual PM2.5 > 15 ug/m3 at one location in any one year, or Adverse Emission Trends • Level II: Violation of the NAAQS

19. Analysis to be Conducted in the Event of Future Violations • Number, location, severity of exceedances • Weather patterns / PM2.5 conduciveness • Contributing emission sources • Impacts due to transport • Emission trends • Timeliness of implementation of scheduled control measures • Availability of new control technologies • Geographic applicability of contingency measures

20. Contingency Measures • IL MPS/CPS for utilities • VOC and NOx RACT • Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) • Consent Decrees • Enhanced Vehicle I/M • Federal Off-Road Emissions Standards • Tier 2/Low Sulfur Fuel Standards • Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Emissions Standards • Consumer Products, AIM, Aerosol Coatings, Portable Fuel Containers

21. Commitments • Update Maintenance Plan Within Eight Years • Update Emission Inventory Every Three Years • Continue to Operate Monitoring Network • Enforce all Applicable Requirements in the State Implementation Plan • Contingency Measures

22. Transportation Conformity • A Clean Air Act requirement intended to ensure that the implementation of transportation plans does not: • Cause or contribute to new air quality violations • Worsen existing violations , or • Delay timely attainment of relevant air quality standards • Therefore, total motor vehicle emissions from the implementation of a Transportation Plan are “capped” at specific levels identified as “motor vehicle emissions budgets” within the State Implementation Plan

23. Transportation Conformity Attainment Year motor vehicle emissions budgets based on the actual vehicle miles travelled in 2008 in the Chicago Nonattainment Area • 58.8 billion miles per year Maintenance Plan Year 2025 budgets based on 2008 VMT “grown” by 1.5% per year • 75.7 billion miles per year

24. Transportation Conformity Key emissions control programs assumed and incorporated into the budgets include: • Use of Northern grade Reformulated Gasoline • Continued operation of the Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Program • Implementation of the national Tier 2 light-duty vehicle emissions standards and gasoline sulfur limits • Implementation of the national heavy-duty diesel emissions standards and diesel sulfur limits

25. Transportation Conformity