Living with exponential growth and exponential threats

1. Living with exponential growth and exponential threats (A Case for threat prevention as significantly higher priority than fostering growth) Annual Conference of World Future Society, 2014 NeerajMital President, Visions of Future. www.visionsoffuture.com Neeraj-quest.blogspot.com nmital@visionsoffuture.com

2. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, • it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness… • Charles Dickens, “A Tale of Two Cities”, 1859 • While We Are Enjoying • We Are Also Planting Seeds of Our Own Destruction • Longer life and better health • Immediate access to information • Instant connection with family and friends • Endless choices of entertainment • Convenience of ecommerce • Global warming • Increased worldwide destructive power • Cyber threats • Depletion of natural resources • Is today the age of wisdom or foolishness NeerajMital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

3. Not only we have achieved tremendous growth, the growth is exponential. 1000 bc to 9000 bc – practically no change • 3D printing, • Personalized medication • Internet of things • and the list goes on … • Growth of World Population and the History of Technology Starting 1760 (Industrial Revolution) - major changes Last 50 years - significantly faster changes Now, on the verge of many disruptive technologies (source: “Abundance: The future is better than you think”, Peter H. Diamandiss and Steven Kotler.) • Destructive power and availability of threats also growing Exponentially. • If we plotted the time vs “destructive power”, the chances are, it would look similar to the chart above. Neeraj Mital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

4. We are in danger of destroying ourselves by our greed and stupidity. • Dr. Stephen Hawking • And 6th Extinction • There have been 5 major extinctions in Earth’s history • The last one being the extinction of all dinosaurs around 65 million years ago • Currently, species are becoming extinct at a rate far higher than any of the extinction events of the past • This has been categorized as 6th extinction Meteorites NeerajMital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

5. The world belongs to humanity. • The Dalia Lama • We are unique on Earth…and maybe even in the entire universe! • We are the only intelligent species we know of • Earth is a rare planet, to be able to support multi cellular life • Even on earth, our existence is probably a chance – for one, if dinosaurs hadn’t gone extinct, we probably wouldn’t be here • We have the opportunity to become something more • Humanity could be a one-time opportunity…we can’t afford to mess it up. NeerajMital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

6. Where does the responsibility of risk prevention lie? • Government • Corporate Sector • Non Profit Organizations • Academic Institutions • Individuals BASICALLY ON EVERYONE • Will humanity evolve fast enough to fulfill our increasing responsibilities Neeraj Mital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

7. So what can we do… First, truly comprehend the problem. “If I had an hour to solve a problem, I’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and 5 minutes thinking about solutions.” Albert Einstein • In a few centuries, humanity could : • But...we have created a world • Develop near immortality • Reduce our dependence on our physical body • Develop ability to migrate to other planets • Develop capability to engineer our own evolution • AND…develop immunity from all the known threats we face today! • with threats of extreme nature • That is undergoing 6th extinction Most threats are our own creation. Threats are growing exponentially Prevention strategies must also grow Exponentially NeerajMital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

8. So what can we do…Get a better understanding of ourselves • Seeds of self destruction are deeply rooted in our genetic makeup! • Growth is automatic • It is at the core of human nature and can’t be stopped • It is driven by our primal need to survive • We are not programmed for safety • Risk prevention is not automatic • But . . . • We need to . . . • We have the unique gift of selfintrospection and power to chose our action • Rise above our own limitations Neeraj Mital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

9. So what can we do… Increase our Awareness “We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.” • Currently, we aren’t even aware of the risks on a basic level Albert Einstein • Consider a simple example • But ... • Pirated software is more likely to have viruses • It can cause havoc not only on your computer but to the entire network • That makes the practice of using pirated software worse than, say, shoplifting • Shoplifting is prohibited by law as well as is a socially unacceptable practice • Society ismuch more liberal in its perception of using pirated software • Awareness regarding our health, fitness, nutrition growing rapidly. • We need the same level of awareness for growing threats. Neeraj Mital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

10. So what can we do… Take Action Threats are growing exponentially. Prevention strategies need to keep pace. Experts and authorities need to comprehend and internalize this reality and get into a room. The real actions may then emerge. Here are some thoughts to fuel the discussion--- • A lot more safety regulations areneeded before release of dangerous technology. • Put technology and products that could be harmful through rigorous tests and trials just like we do with drugs. • Prevent risky technology from becoming freely available. • Develop response plans (antidotes) for the misuse of technology before it is released. Make it mandatory . • Offer subsidies to companies developing risk prevention technologies. Neeraj Mital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

11. Can we afford that drastic approach? • But do we have a choice? These are tough decisions. They will involve – • Compromise to growth COMPROMISE ON MANY OTHER FRONTS… • Compromise to life style Growth trends lead to unprecedented freedom, power, longevity, and more. Growing threats point to possible self destruction - even leading to extinction. Isn’t keeping threats under control, at all cost Our Only Choice! Neeraj Mital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

12. In conclusionOur destiny will be defined by us With all due credits to Charles Dickens – We ARE living in the age of extreme wisdom We ARE living in the age of extreme foolishness  Let’s do our bit to make sure - We do not join the dinosaurs in extinction. Instead go down in history as being - WISE and IMMORTAL. Neeraj Mital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com

13. References • Exponential Growth - realizing the dream. • “Abundance. The future is better than you think”, Peter H. Diamandis, Steven Kotler. • “Visions”, MichioKaku. • “Threats to Humanity”, Leroy W. Dubeck Ph.D., Suzanne E. Moshier Ph.D. • Dinosaur Extinction. • Global catastrophic risks. • On the exponential curve. • Why I Believe That This Will Be The Most Innovative Decade In History, Peter H. Diamandis. • World On Brink Of Sixth Great Extinction. • Rare Earth hypothesis.

14. Neeraj Mital NeerajMital, President of Visions of Future, is a futurist writer, speaker, and technology consultant. He is also the founder of Sofnet Technologies, Inc., an IT consulting company. Neeraj is passionate about envisioning a better future for mankind. He enjoys Indian classic and folk music, ping pong, bridge, and not the least, brisk walk on trails where he gets inspiration for a lot of his writing ideas. Neeraj Mital, Visions of Future, www.visionsoffuture.com, www.neeraj-quest.blogspot.com, nmital@visionsoffuture.com