Advancements to the Operational HWRF Modeling System at EMC

1. Advancements to the Operational HWRF Modeling System at EMC Vijay Tallapragada Hurricane Team Lead Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA/NWS Camp Springs, MD 20746.

2. Overview of the Operational HWRF • HWRF Atmosphere • Movable, two-way nested vortex following grid • 9km inner domian and 27km outer domain), 42 vertical layers • Advanced physics from GFDL/GFS • Advanced vortex initialization with GSI/3DVAR • HWRF Ocean • Coupled to Princeton Ocean Model (POM) in the Atlantic Basin • Feature based initialization of loop current and warm/cold core rings, cold wake specification during spin-up phase • Operational HWRF products • Numerical guidance on 6-hrly hurricane track and intensity for as many as five storms (both Atlantic and Eastern Pacific) • High-resolution swaths (hourly, 10th of a degree) for wind and precipitation along the projected storm path • Simulated GOES synthetic satellite imagery (IR, VIS and WV) and radar reflectivity • Four years into operations, since 2007

3. Performance of the Operational HWRF for 2010 ATL hurricane season HWRF Atlantic Track Forecast Errors (less skillful at all times compared to GFS and GFDL) HWRF Atlantic Intensity Forecast Errors (less skillful at all times) Rapid growth of intensity errors Negative bias for HWRF Atlantic Intensity Forecasts 3

4. Performance of the Operational HWRF for 2010 EPAC hurricane season HWRF E-Pac Track Forecast Errors (better than GFS at all times, worse than GFDL except at 120 hr) HWRF E-Pac Intensity Forecast Errors (less skillful at all times) Rapid growth of intensity errors Negative bias for HWRF E-Pac Intensity Forecasts 4

5. Model Upgrades (Atmosphere) Upgrade dynamical core to NMM community version V3.2 (EMC-DTC Collaboration) New GFS Deep Convection, Improved surface physics, radiation and microphysics parameterizations, and new FY2011 GSI/GFS IC/BC Vortex initialization upgrades Improved storm size correction based on radius of 34 kt winds or ROCI and dynamical mass-wind consistency of the initial vortex (EMC-HRD collaboration) Modification of synthetic storm and its application in the initialization (vortex cycling) Upgrade HWRF GSI to V2.5 (community code) Ocean Upgrades Expanded POM Eastern Atlantic Domain and improved ocean initialization Coupling to HYCOM Ocean Model* *Withdrawn from 2011 implementation plans, will be tested in parallel Operational HWRF product enhancements Satellite angle corrections for simulated GOES WV and IR imagery, additional simulated microwave products New enhanced HWRF website for product display and navigation High-frequency output (3 hourly) and additional derived variables for diagnostics (EMC-NHC-CIRA Collaboration) Planned FY2011 Upgrades (Supported by DTC) Improved storm size correction based on R34/ROCI

6. HWRF T&E plan for 2011 implementation Suggested priority cases: ATL: Fay(33), Ike(51) (2008), Bill(34), Erika(10) (2009), Alex(23), Earl(41), Tomas(35) (2010): total 227 runs; EPAC: Jimena(24), Linda(19) (2009), Celia(37) (2010): total:80 runs All test cases: ~700 runs *If shows positive results, testing will continue for remaining storms of ATL and EPAC from 2009/2010 seasons. *Major landfalling storms from 2008 season (Fay, Hanna, Gustav and Ike) are included in this extended test plan. 1 use higher frequency physics calls for stability issue • T&E for final 2011 configuration (combined upgrades) • Potential upgrades are tested for ~700 cases for each config. • Final configuration with combined upgrades are chosen in concert with NHC. Joint testing of physics/ocean upgrades with GFDL • Final T&E to be completed by March 15th. *Withdrawn from 2011 implementation

7. FY2011 HWRF Pre-Implementation Test Results Reduction of model spin-up/spin-down

8. 3-season HWRF-HYCOM testing • Investigate the cause of negative bias/increased SST cooling and address SST drift issues • Improved RTOFS DA and ocean model physics • Extended diagnostics to evaluate the coupled system • Need to develop a unified coupled system for both Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins (Global HyCOM) to take full advantage Neutral impact on track and intensity errors Increased negative bias

9. Ongoing Model development & collaborative efforts (FY2011) Further advancements to the HWRF modeling system (EMC & HRD) third nest capability, advanced diagnostic capability (diapost), idealized simulations Planned Demo during 2011 hurricane season (HFIP Stream 1.5) Multiple moving nests/improved model dynamics/improved physics suitable for high resolution Code management and community support (EMC, DTC) Setup HWRFV3.2+ and provide support to the community through DTC Development of R2O/O2R infrastructure and testing facility at DTC Data assimilation and vortex initialization (EMC, ESRL, OU, AOML) Real-time test of the P3 TDR data flow from aircraft to NCO/TOC/AOC and assimilation using advanced GSI. Improved vortex initialization (model consistent 3-D balanced vortex) Ensemble data assimilation - hybrid EnKF (ESRL, OU , AOML) Planned Demo during 2011 hurricane season (HFIP Stream 2) 27 km 9 km 3 km HWRF Hybrid DA

10. HWRF Physics (URI, GFDL, ESRL,HRD) • Surface fluxes, sea spray and wave coupling • Physics for high-resolution (convection, micro physics, PBL, LSM ) • HWRF Diagnostics (HFIP, EMC, NHC, FSU, CIRA, HRD, UMBC/UMD) • Identifying forecast errors from different components of model physics and dynamics • Hurricane model diagnostics, evaluation and verification • Develop a common and comprehensive diagnostics framework and tools to integrate model output with available observations for verification • Enhanced real-time product display and navigation • HWRF Ensembles • Large Scale Flow Perturbations; • Initial Storm Structure Perturbations; • Physics-Based Perturbations • High-Resolution HWRF and other parallels • Real-time demo of triple nested (27/9/3) HWRF (HFIP Stream 1.5) • Real-time demo of high-resolution 9:3 HWRF (HFIP Stream 2) • Real-time demo of Doppler Radar DA experiments • Real-time demo of NOAH LSM Coupled HWRF

11. Mapping HWRF development tasks to HFIP efforts and Agency Priorities

12. Advancing the HWRF System FY2011 & Beyond HWRFV3.2+ . *Potential Computer upgrade Ongoing Work 2011 upgrades Planned developments

13. Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled Models NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center Atmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land Land and coastal waters HWRF SYSTEM NMM V2.0 Hurricane atmosphere Upgrade to HWRF V3.2+ in FY2011 NOAH LSM* runoff GFDL Slab Model High resolution Coastal, Bay & Estuarine hydrodynamic model* Surge* Inundation* fluxes Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer radiative fluxes winds air temp. other fluxes elevations currents 3D salinities temperatures SST currents FY2012Upgrade to HYCOM Ocean Model Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for Atlantic Region wave spectra WAVEWATCH III* Spectral wave model wave fluxes *Future developments

14. Thanks for your attention Questions? Real-time and pre-implementation T&E HWRF products: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/index.html Acknowledgements: HWRF team at EMC EMC and HFIP Management Collaborations with NHC, DTC, HRD, GFDL, URI, CIRA and other HFIP partners