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IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN

IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN By Dr. Amir Muhammed Chairman, Pakistan National IGBP Committee NATIONAL SETTING PAKISTAN GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE Population: 149 million Growth Rate: 2.06% Literacy rate: 51% Male 53% Female 29% GDP (per capita): $492

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IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN

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  1. IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN By Dr. Amir Muhammed Chairman, Pakistan National IGBP Committee

  2. NATIONAL SETTING

  3. PAKISTAN GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION

  4. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE • Population: 149 million Growth Rate: 2.06% • Literacy rate: 51% Male 53% Female 29% • GDP (per capita): $492 • Population below poverty line:32% Urban 22% Rural 39% • Health Expenditure 0.7% of GDP • Rural population access to; Safe drinking water: 48% Sanitation: 23%

  5. CLIMATE Mostly Arid and Semi arid; temperate in the North west • Hot dry summers, • Temperatures upto 530c (1270 F) • Rainfall • Annual average (weighted): 278 mm • South: 80 - 200 mm • North: 250 – 1600 mm • Monsoon Share: 49%

  6. TEMPERATURE

  7. RAINFALL

  8. AGRICULTURE • Largest sector of Economy (24% of GDP) • 68% population rural; directly or indirectly depends on agriculture • Industries almost entirely agro based • >80% exports agro based • Predominantly depends on irrigation

  9. IRRIGATION NETWORK

  10. WATER AVAILABILITY

  11. CLIMATE CHANGE

  12. RECENT TRENDS IN CLIMATE CHANGE • Drought in Pakistan for last three years • Forecast for continued dry weather in arid areas of the sub-continent • Extremes getting severe-intense short duration rains, prolonged dry spells

  13. IMPACT ON RAINFALL & WARMING Historical comparison (1930-60 & 1960-90) • Rise in mean temp. of 0.5-1.00C in arid coastal areas, arid mountains and hyper arid plains • 10-15% decrease in rainfall in above regions • 15-35% increase in rainfall in monsoon zone • 0.5 to 0.75% Increase in solar radiation in Balochistan and Southern Pakistan • 1-2% decrease in cloud cover in central Pakistan with increase in sunshine hours

  14. IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES AND ECONOMY • Less snowfall, slow deposits & glacierization • Reduced river flows • Reduction in storage of water in dams • Less rainfall in arid areas, prolonged droughts

  15. ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS

  16. Air Pollution • Number of vehicles jumped from less than one million to about 4 million during last 20 years • Av. Suspended particulate matter in major cities 6 times higher than WHO standard Water Pollution • Existing water resources under threat due to untreated discharge of municipal and industrial wastes. (Pak-EPA study: Biological Oxygen Demand of river Ravi (Lahore)was 300 mg/litre (9 mg/l is acceptable) • Increasing use of agro-chemicals polluting river and underground water • Drinking water unfit for human consumption in most cities

  17. Industrial Pollution • Imports 525 types of chemicals for processing industries, in addition to locally produced • Processing generates wastes & poses risk to public health, land, water and marine resources • Kasur Tanneries discharging effluent with chrome concn. of > 200 mg/litre (standard 1 mg/l) and COD of >7000/l ( limit 150 mg/l)

  18. Marine Pollution • Karachi generates 280 mn gallons of domestic and industrial waste daily. 80% untreated waste from 6000 industrial units discharged into sea • 8,000T garbage generated daily in Karachi, dumped randomly at various locations. Some finds its way into sea • Karachi harbour area, including marine channel, is one of the most oil-polluted area along the coast of Pakistan • Serious threat to marine environment, fisheries and mangrove resources, affecting poor coastal population. Loss of Biodiversity

  19. SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN

  20. R&D EXPENDITURE Source: PCST Publications, “S&T Potential 1990” & “S&T Indicators of Pakistan, 1999”. UNESCO Year Book 1999

  21. R&D MANPOWER Source: UNESCO Year Book 1999

  22. SCIENCE LEARNED BODIES • Pakistan Academy of Sciences • Pakistan Association for Advancement of Science • Scientific Society of Pakistan

  23. IGBP COMMITTEE OF PAKISTAN • Dr. Amir Muhammed: Agriculture • Dr. M.D. Shami Chemical Technology • Prof. Iftikar Malik Medical (Pathology) • Mr. Tajammal H. Hashmi Engineering • Dr. Iqbal Hussain Quershi Chemistry • Prof. Dr. M.Suhail Zubairy Electronics • Prof. Dr. M.Qasim Jan Geology • Dr. Qamaruzzaman Meteorology

  24. INSTITUTIONS RELEVANT TO GC RESEARCH • Pakistan Council for Scientific & Industrial Research • Pakistan Agriculture Research Council • Pak. Council for Res. in Water Resources • Water and Power Development Authority • National Institute of Oceanography • Pakistan Meteorological Department • Global Change Impact Studies Centre

  25. GC SCIENCE PROJECTS • Water Resources in South Asia – An assessment of Climate Change associated vulnerabilities and coping mechanisms” APN 2003-4(Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal,USA) • Global Change impact assessment for Himalayan Mountain Region for Environmental Management and Sustainable Development” APN #2003-3(Nepal, India, Pakistan) • Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes and the identification of Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) affected by Global Warming in the Mountains APN #2003-5(Nepal, Pakistan, India, China, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea) • An assessment of nutrient, sediment and carbon fluxes to the coastal zone in South Asia and their relationship to human activities-(APN #2001-20) : (Srilanka, Pakistan, India, Nepal, USA, Australia) • Management Responses to Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Mixed Cropping Systems of South Asia's Semi-Arid Tropics (CLIMAG) APN #2000-17(Australia, India, Pakistan, USA) • South Asian Regional Experiment to Characterize and Evaluate Physiological Response of Rice Varieties to CO2 Enrichment. APN #2000-08(India, Bangladesh,, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) • APN Networking & Capacity Building Workshop#2000-NC02(Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka)

  26. PROPOSAL FOR STRENGTHENING IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN • Sensitize policy makers to importance of GC studies • Establish focal point for GC aspects in M/0 Environment • Regional and national capacity building workshops • Establish education programs in environmental science • Incorporate GC concerns in curricula • Graduate course on GC science in region (AIT Bangkok?) • Enhance capacity for science-based GC studies • Support collab. research with developed country scientists • Encourage visiting scientist program for young scientists

  27. THANK YOU

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