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Ohridska banka, Societe Generale Group INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC CHALLANGES

30 / 04 /20 10. Ohridska banka, Societe Generale Group INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC CHALLANGES. Jitka P ANT Ů ČKOV Á President of the Board of Directors. Content Outlook for 2010 + EURO Area Société Générale’s challanges Conclusion. Outlook for 2010 +. Outlook for 2010

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Ohridska banka, Societe Generale Group INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC CHALLANGES

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  1. 30/04/2010 Ohridska banka, Societe Generale GroupINTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC CHALLANGES Jitka PANTŮČKOVÁ President of the Board of Directors

  2. Content • Outlook for 2010 + • EURO Area • Société Générale’s challanges • Conclusion MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  3. Outlook for 2010 + MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  4. Outlook for 2010 • Thanks to rapid economic growth in emerging countries, particularly in Asia, the recovery in international trade will continue in 2010. Growth will return in developed countries, but will remain modest at just over: • 2.5% in the USA • close to 1% in the Euro Zone • Monetary policies will remain highly accommodative, with key central bank rates unchanged at: • 0.25% in the USA • 1% in the Euro Zone and • 0.5% in the UK • Concerns are now directed towards the severe deterioration in public finances and the sustainability of government debt. The most vulnerable borrowers – Greece first and foremost, but also Spain, Ireland, Portugal and several Eastern European countries – will have to make drastic budget adjustments spread over several years, and starting in 2010. MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  5. Monetary challenges • Monetary policy dilemma • Advanced economies – easing monetary policy to be used aggressively to counter deflation risk • Emerging economies – easing monetary policy to respond to the deteriorating outlook • The current growth gap between the USA and the Euro Zone, although temporary, has consequences for monetary policy expectations and the euro-dollar exchange rate. MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  6. New trends – looking forward • Markets – renewed momentum • Economy – nascent recovery • Banking sector – G20 reforms • Risk management – new culture MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  7. Severe Risk Management Culture • Long-term approach of customer relations and risk management • Business focus on long term customer relationships • Banking risk approach focusing on economic fundamentals • Committed management • Committees chaired by General Management to set risk policies and limits • Front-line management’s involvement at all levels in risk management • Transparency about the nature and location of risks • Powerful and independent oversight functions • Risk Management, Compliance and Internal audit – key roles Close attention paid to the risk/reward balance MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  8. EURO Area MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  9. EURO Area – small recovery, big challenges • Early 2010: a real-world test of resiliency for the EMU. • Since the start of the year the financial markets have cast a very wary eye at several euro zone countries, and at the single currency • The EU Council and the Eurogroup announced publicly that they would, if necessary, take “determined and coordinated” action to safeguard financial stability in the Euro Zone. • To be expected a soft, anaemic recovery with divergences between countries. • Monetary policy: adjustments and continued flexibility MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  10. EURO Area – banking summary • European banks weighed in the balance • Wide disparity between the various banking institutions: • Some banks emerge from the crisis stronger than ever (Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, Santander, Deutsche Bank & Credit Suisse) • Others still struggling to get back on their feet (UBS, RBS, Commerzbank & Lloyds) • Banking institutions are debatably far from as solid as they might wish to appear (provisions set aside by European banks cover only 40% of the doubtful debts) • Remuneration – Bonuses: bank’s dilemma • On one hand trying to lessen public opinion, which is indignant while trying to pay the staff enough on the other hand • Basel III – bank solvency and liquidity under review • Better systemic liquidity management • Basel Committee to deal with solvency and liquidity issues: • Tier I modification • Introduction of leverage ratio • Two new liquidity ratios – measuring banks’ capacity to withstand liquidity crisis lasting a month & for a year. MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  11. EURO Area – new opportunities • Europe 2020 Strategy • Fundamental long-term strategic economic framework of the EU and new approach: • Crisis is seen as opportunity for new development of the EU based on: • Knowledge • Innovation • Environmental protection • Ecology and • Efficient use of natural resources • Priorities: • Economic growth based on knowledge and innovation factors • CSR • More competitive, interconnected and greener economy MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  12. Société Générale’s challanges MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  13. Société Générale’s after the banking crisis • Société Générale has been acknowledged for its resilience • A universal banking - a good business model • The Group’s strengths to keep the business portfolio viable: • Solid franchises • Commitment and professionalism of the Group’s staff • High solvency ratios • Despite its strengths, the Group must not rest on its laurels – it must emerge from the crisis stronger and better MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  14. Société Générale in the region • Markets with potential despite the crisis: • Despite the crisis that particularly affected small countries, there is still a real development potential • Regulatory constraints strengthened by the crisis, with signs of flexibility in 2010 • A controlled growth: • A strengthened position on markets • A potential for strengthening the position regarding organic growth variable according to markets MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  15. “Ambition SG 2015” project • The initiative aimed at defining the Group that we want to build over the next five years • The ultimate goal of this process is: • to become “THE” reference bank in Europe • to be the one that commands the respect of all, • to remain a bank for which we are all proud to work and which a lot of people would like to join • The initiative is structured around four key themes: • our customers • the men and women who make up our Group • our operating model • our communication and image MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

  16. Conclusion • Prevention against the crisis – changes in the framework: • Macroeconomic • Regulatory • Supervisory • Stabilising the financial system and the real economy by: • Supplementing the institutions and legislation with new initiatives • Creating rules for stabilising the financial markets • International policy coordination based on: • Better early – warning systems and • More open communication of risks MSE, Ohridska banka SGG, Jitka Pantuckova, President of Board of Directors – April 2010

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