1 / 21

Validate - A Nationwide Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Germany

Validate - A Nationwide Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Germany. Peter Vortisch, Volker Waßmuth, PTV AG, Germany. VALIDATE – A Transport Model for Germany. A nationwide model for Germany (82 million residents) Hourly volumes on roads

adriel
Download Presentation

Validate - A Nationwide Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Germany

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Validate - A Nationwide Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Germany Peter Vortisch, Volker Waßmuth, PTV AG, Germany

  2. VALIDATE – A Transport Model for Germany • A nationwide model for Germany(82 million residents) • Hourly volumes on roads • Should use as many public (or commercial) digital data as possible • Should be easy to update • Applications • Regional and nationwide forecasts • Traffic volumes for the set up of billboards • Travel time estimation for navigation systems

  3. VALIDATE at a glance • Representing Germany and the surrounding European countries • 1.4 million links • About 7.000 traffic zones • 9 trip purposes • 21 person groups • auto and truck traffic • quasi-dynamic assignment(time-of-day volumes)

  4. Road Network Processing • Initial German Navteq network consists of ca. 6 million links • Removing minor roads • Generalization: removing two-leg node • Automated, reversible and repeatable process • Mapping of Navteq attributes to assignment relevant attributes • Adding a reduced European network • Finally 1.4 million links

  5. Traffic Zones • ca. 10,000 residents per zone • 5 to 12 connectors per zone • Finally 7,000 zones(refinement to 10,000 ongoing)

  6. Land Use Data • National and regional population statistics • 85,000 market analysis zones • commercially available • Inhabitants • Employment by industry • Buying power • Additionally • schools, universities • special attractors(fun parks etc.)

  7. Survey data • German nationwide travel behavior surveys • MiD 2002 (“Mobility in Germany”) • 62,000 persons • 183,000 trips • SrV (2003) • 34,000 persons

  8. No. of car trips for different purposes • trip generation by the EVA-Model (Prof. Lohse, University of Dresden) • simultaneous destination and mode choice Total: 142.2 million

  9. Regional distribution of trips No of trips / km²

  10. Road Traffic Assignment (24 h, static) RGap = 0.005 after 12 h computing time

  11. Calibration of the model • 2000 permanent counting points from BAST (Federal institute for roads) • additional survey points from different sources • % RMSE = 23%

  12. Validation: Mean Trip distances

  13. Time-of-Day Trip Demand

  14. Time-of-day (quasi-dynamic) assignment • method similar to the Duration based static assignment presented by David Pickworth ADT assignment peak hour (7 a.m. – 8 a.m.)

  15. Result: Time-of-day traffic volumes (video)

  16. Validation: Comparision of volume time profiles (video sequence of 100 count locations)

  17. Application: Traffic volumes in Germany 2020 • ACATECH forecast 2020: • Mileage (private cars) • + 20 % (+30% on highways) • Mileage (HGV) • + 34% (+45% on highways) • Mileage (all vehicles) • + 21% (+33% on highways) • compared to 2002 increasedecrease

  18. Application: Impact Studies • Example:Effect of Toll on the A4 (Eisenach)

  19. Application: Accessibility depending on day and time Access Mon 10 a.m. green: < 1:00 h red: >3:00 h

  20. Validate Network UK 11/2006 Directional Links 630708 Zones 8105 Connectors 29531

  21. WWW.PTV.DE Thank you for your attention ! Contact infomation: peter.vortisch@ptv.de volker.wassmuth@ptv.de PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG, 76131 Karlsruhe

More Related