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Transformative Scenarios Looking to the future of civil society and philanthropy

Transformative Scenarios Looking to the future of civil society and philanthropy. Mille Bojer, Reos André Degenszajn , GIFE Janaina Jatobá, Instituto C&A . WINGS Forum 2014 Istanbul, Turkey . São Paulo , Brazil. June 27, 2013. Objectives for this session.

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Transformative Scenarios Looking to the future of civil society and philanthropy

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  1. TransformativeScenariosLookingtothe future of civil societyandphilanthropy Mille Bojer, Reos André Degenszajn, GIFE Janaina Jatobá, Instituto C&A WINGS Forum 2014Istanbul, Turkey São Paulo, Brazil June 27, 2013

  2. Objectives for this session Tounderstandhowtransformativescenarioscanbeusedto help articulate paths for civil societyandtoharnessthepowerof networks Tosharetwostoriesand explore whatwecanlearnfromthemaboutthesituationof civil society in South AfricaandBrazil To start a dialogue aboutthevalueofscenariothinking in philanthhropy

  3. Warmup: “If you could speak to a clairvoyant about the future of civil society in your country, what question would you most like to ask them?”

  4. What are transformative scenarios?

  5. Scenarios: “…structured, well considered stories describing a small set of possible future contexts and how they might come about.”

  6. Stories of possible futures that are: • Relevant • IlluminatecurrentcircumstancesandconcernsLink intocurrent mental models • Challenging • Maketheinvisiblevisible • Questioncurrent mental models • Plausible • Fact-basedandlogical • Improve systemicunderstanding • Clear • Distinct • Accessibleandmemorable Predictions Projections Preferences Options

  7. Five steps 1. Convene a teamfromthewhole system 5. Acttotransform the system 2. Observe what is happening 4. Discover what can and must be done 3. Create the stories that need to be told Source: Kahane

  8. How transformative scenarios work Our understanding Our language They transform Our relationships Our intentions Our actions

  9. Dinokeng Scenarios Collectively constructing a sustainable future for South Africa REOS INSTITUTE 2013 SCENARIOS CASE STUDY SERIES

  10. The Context in 2009 • Seismic political shifts, with Jacob Zuma assuming the presidency in 2009. A time marked by uncertainty, power struggle and political reshuffling within the ANC. • World in the midst of economic crisis, sending tremors through the local economy • Large-scale migration from the neighbouring state of Zimbabwe and other countries in the region, and xenophobic attacks across the stressed area. • The effects of climate change and economic crisis placing increasing pressure on agricultural production, rural sustainability, and food security. • Unacceptably high levels of crime. • The realities of constructing a new nation had revealed themselves as an entirely grittier and more complex task than its people had anticipated.

  11. The Scenarios Engaged WALK TOGETHER CHARACTER OF CIVIL SOCIETY 2020 Collaborative and enabling state. Engaged and active citizenry CAPACITY OF THE STATE Innefective Effective Corrupt and inefecttive state. Distrusting and self- protective citizenry Interventionist and directive state. Dependent and compliant citizenry.. 2009 2020 2020 WALK BEHIND WALK APART Disengaged

  12. The Impact • Placed the simple, crucial “Walk Together” insight about citizen re-engagement into the center of South African discourse. Example: The essence of the plan for the country prepared by the National Planning Commission, set up in 2010, focuses on engaging an active citizenry, promoting leadership through every aspect of society, and building a capable state. • Crystallized a core debate among South African leaders about the role that the state should play in national development. • Members of the Dinokeng team expanded their shared understanding of their situation and of their roles in it. They helped their system get unstuck and move forward. • The large-scale dissemination of the Dinokeng scenarios was intended to regenerate active participation by South Africans in their new democracy. Dinokeng contributed to opening up and strengthening the country’s politics and its capacity to deal with its challenges.

  13. Civil Society 2023:  Four futures for Brazilian Civil Society  In 2013, Reos entered into partnership with the D3 Articulation for Democracy, Dialogue and Rights and the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic to co-convene a transformative scenarios process on the future of civil society in Brazil, labeled “Civil Society 2023”.

  14. Context for the Brazilian Civil Society Scenarios Whatisthecurrent reality of Civil Society in Brazil? Whatwerethe big uncertainties in 2013? What big questionswerewe holding aboutthe future?

  15. The Impact so far Individual level: Shift in perspective, new actions Organizationallevel: Incorporationintostrategicplanning processes, impactonleaders, Field level: Placingvalueon civil society, offering a new languageandspecificrisksandopportunities, creationof a network, new partnershipsamongparticipatingorganizations; disseminationnationallyandinternationally

  16. Questions, comments, reflections “How is this all relevant to your context?”

  17. For more information: www.reospartners.com bojer@reospartners.com www.dinokengscenarios.co.za www.sociedadecivil2023.org.br Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future by Adam Kahane (Berrett-Koehler, 2012). Available from Amazon.

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