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Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work. Changes in scope and depth in NC3 The projections require: wide range of competences and agencies presently 11 agencies involved directly, agencies responsible sector integration experts from universities and consultants

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Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

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  1. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Changes in scope and depth in NC3 The projections require: • wide range of competences and agencies • presently 11 agencies involved directly, agencies responsible sector integration • experts from universities and consultants • The objective to: • consider all sectors and all gases Means • Separate studies • Workshops • Seminars • Scrutinising by agencies and experts

  2. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work The needs according to the guidelines • Priorities on : • important sectors • policy and market implications • new information on development • integrated evaluation the effect of policies and measures Agriculture Energy Transport 1. Energy (52%) 5. Agriculture (11%) 2. Transport (29%) 6. LULUCF (0) 3.Industry (5%) 7. Waste (3.2%) 4.Solvents (0.1%)

  3. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Basic approach • With measures: • 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 • Without measures: • 1990, 1995, 2000 2005, 2010 • With additional measures • Based on Government Commission for a new climate strategy (2000) or GB • Other Non-GHGs (Sox, NOx, VOCs) • Projections of the EU Acidification and Ozone Strategy

  4. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Emissions of GHG Without measures B a U with sensitivity scenarios With additional measures Aggregated effect of PaMs 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year

  5. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Energy and transport • CO2 (77 % of total GHG effect) • Consistency in GNP growth, population and so forth • A number of scenarios to study effect of energy supply system 2010-2020 • CH4(1 % of total GHG effect) • Some new projection for vehicle emissions • N2O (3% of total GHG effect) • Trend analysis ? Issues • Phase-out of nuclear power • The energy supply system • Impact of emissions trading • Development of transport • Off-road vehicles and machinery

  6. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Industry • CO2 (3 % of total GHG effect) • Trend analysis, expert advice • N2O (1% of total GHG effect) • Trend analysis ? • HFCs, PFCs, SF6 (1 % of total GHG effect) • projections with detailed information on the emission factors Issues • Rapid changes of actual emissions of HFCs, PCFs and SF6

  7. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Agriculture • CH4 (5 % of total GHG effect) • Trend analysis ? • N2O (6 % of total GHG effect) • Trend analysis ? Issues • Impact of CAP and Agenda 2000 • Impact of national actions and markets • Poorly integrated in climate strategy

  8. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry • CO2 (Sink about 33 % of total GHG emission) • Net emissions from agricultural soils - No trends ?? • Net uptake in forest stock (above ground) - Based on models for biomass increment and market demands Issues • Impact of CAP • Impact of national actions and market • Poorly integrated in climate strategy

  9. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Waste • CH4 (4 % of total GHG emission) • Modeling of the impact of future restrictions on depositing organic material • Modeling on the impact of methane gas • Time dependent decay of DOC in land fills Issues • Importance of household waste and industrial waste burning

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