Amory Lovins: Hard path or soft path?

1. Amory Lovins: Hard path or soft path? • The Hard Path • Maximization of energy use • Primary reliance on hard sources such as petrochemicals • Promotion of continued economic growth and rising material standards • Emphasis on developing technologies • Highly centralized production dominated by huge corporations

2. The Soft Path • Reduction in total energy consumption. • Development of intermediate and appropriate technologies. • Creation of a permanently sustainable economy. • Development of alternatives solar, wind, geothermal, hydrogen.

3. Mining efficiency • “It is cheaper to save energy than to buy it”—Amory Lovins • Adoption of new household appliance efficiency standards would eliminate the need for new power plants • More stringent residential and commercial air conditioner efficiency standards approved by the Clinton Administration do away with the need for another 93 power plants

4. Mining efficiency • Improving energy efficiency of new and existing buildings (more efficient lighting) would save 380 power plants • Compact fluorescent bulbs use ¼ electricity of regular bulbs and last 13 times as long. • CF 3-year cost: $19.06 • Regular bulb: $39.54 • Greater Fuel efficiency

5. Seeking Alternative Sources • There are many advantages to fossil fuels due to large investment in the production we currently have. (75% of energy is oil, gas, & coal) • Little is currently invested in alternative energy.

6. Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Resources • 84% of all commercial energy in US is wasted (2nd Law of Thermodynamics) • Hydrogen power • Hydroelectric power • Solar Energy • Wind energy

7. The Hydrogen Revolution • Water electrolysis: splitting H2O molecules. NOT an energy source, more of a fuel. • Clean-burning fuel: water vapor (locally) • But it takes a lot of energy to produce hydrogen (costly), but where does the energy come from? • On the other hand, costs are coming down. Fuel cell cars on market (2003). However, there is little infrastructure.

8. Hydropower • Prior to the widespread availability of commercial electric power, hydropower was used for irrigation, and operation of various machines, such as watermills, textile machines, and sawmills. • Hydropower is non-polluting It is renewable - water flows are replenished by the hydrologic cycle, which is powered by the sun. • Hydroelectric power now supplies about 19% of world electricity (16% in 2003). Large dams are still being designed. Apart from a few countries with an abundance of it, hydro power is normally applied to peak load demand because it is readily stopped and started. • Most of the Pacific West in the U.S. is powered by hydroelectric power.

9. Some issues… • Hydroelectric power is probably not a major option for future energy production, most major sites are either already being exploited or are unavailable for other reasons, such as environmental considerations. • Building dams can involve diverting rivers, flooding farmland and countryside and displacing local people (i.e.., China) • Wildlife habitats are disrupted and the natural flow of water is altered. Forests are often cut down to build the accompanying infrastructure. • Dams can trap silt which would otherwise enrich soils downstream, creating sediment and pollution problem up and down stream.

10. Wind Energy Wind energy is • abundant • renewable • widely distributed • clean • Mitigates the greenhouse effect if it is used to replace fossil-fuel-derived electricity. • Unlike fossil fuel or nuclear power stations, which circulate or evaporate large amounts of water for cooling, wind turbines do not need water to generate electricity. .

11. Wind Energy • 2000-2006 world wind energy generating capacity more than quadruples. • accounts for 23% of electricity use in Denmark • 4.3% in Germany • around 8% in Spain. • Only 1 % globally. • Less than 1% in US

12. World Wind Energy Generating Capacity, 1980–2002 • Thousand Megawatts

14. Wind Energy • Denmark manufactured 60% of all turbines installed in 2000 • Cost has dropped from 38/kwh cents in 1980 to 4 cents in 2001 • US Great Plains have enough wind to meet all national electricity needs “Saudia Arabia of wind” • One large wind turbine on ¼ acre can yield a farmer or rancher $2,000/year in royalties while generating $100,000/year in electricity.

16. Long Term Potential of Wind Energy? • Wind's long-term theoretical potential is much greater than current world energy consumption. • The most comprehensive study to date found the potential of wind power on land and near-shore to be five times the world's current energy use and 40 times the current electricity use.

17. Any Tradeoffs? Downsides • Aesthetics. Some people think they are ugly. Fight over offshore windmills near Martha’s Vineyard. • Studies show number of birds killed by wind turbines is negligible compared to the amount that die as a result of other human activities such as traffic, hunting, power lines, and high rise buildings, but especially the environmental impacts of using fossil fuels. • Noise • Transferability of wind generated power

18. From Petroleum to Solar • When BP merged with Amoco, it also acquired Solarex, the solar cell arm of Amoco, making BP the world’s third ranking manufacturer of solar cells, after Sharp and Kyocera of Japan. Siemens/Shell in fourth place (No US firms in top 4).

19. Solar Energy • Sunlight strikes silicon-based material electricity-photovoltaic cells • Growth of sales of photovoltaic cells = 20% a year in 1999-2000, jumping to 43% in 2000 • Cost of solar cells fallen from $70/watt of production capacity to $3.50/watt since 1970s

20. Your House as an Energy Source • Development of photovoltaic cells that are also roof shingles. The roof of a building becomes the power plant. • In Germany and Japan, solar-shingled houses have two-way meters-selling electricity to the local utility when the house has an excess-buying it when it doesn’t have enough.

21. Set-backs to Solar • Local ordinances (e.i., Coral Gables) • Cost remains high, and little subsidies are available • Require large amount of space to harness energy • Better for localized efforts

22. Reducing Energy Use: • Voluntary Behavior: • Carpooling • Bicycling • Mass transit * Encouragement of these activities in the U.S. has not succeeded enough to make big difference • Economic incentives for energy conservation • Tax relief for those who conserve • Penalties for those who overuse • Cost-Savings through more efficient use.

23. How quickly will we make the transition? • World energy consumption will continue to grow, projected 50% increase by 2020 under one scenario. • “massive drive to raise energy efficiency” scenario. • Even given clear and widespread public policy support, the new renewables...will take decades to develop and diffuse to the point where they significantly substitute fossil fuels. • Shell Oil study group, on the other hand, says alternative sources competitive with fossil fuel by 2020—with current trends.