Creating a Decision Requirements Table

1. Creating a Decision Requirements Table • Examples • Initiation of convection / Forecasting thunderstorm potential • Forecasting potential for severe convection • Identifying transition to severe convection • Forecasting weather associated with convection • Timing the arrival of a front • Fog prediction at local airport • Rare event • Insufficient data • Inadequate conceptual models • No clear-cut thresholds • Not enough time • Don’t notice LLJ • Ignore hodograph • Assume same as yesterday • Assume NWP is accurate • Ignore water vapour imagery • Don’t think it’s a convection day • Anticipating possibility • Awareness of ingredients • Maintaining radar watch • Early detection of boundaries • Recognition of conceptual models Diagnose reasons for failure, record forecast reasoning, refine conceptual model, ...

3. Making Intuitive Decisions Via Patterns Situation that inform decisions generates Mental models use your Action Scripts Clues to run a Mental simulation to test that activate that let you recognise Patterns

4. Making Intuitive Meteorological Decisions Meteor’lsituation obs, NWP FORECASTS generates Mental models use your Model evolution Clues to run a Mental simulation to test that activate that let you recognise Conceptual models To improve: acquire more patterns and strategies; practise.

5. Is a Storm Becoming Severe? Existing Storm FORECASTS generates Repeat for weather & Issue warning Radar imagery Conceptual models use your Supercell script Clues to run a Mental simulation to test that activate that let you recognise Severe storm features Change of dir’n, Rotation, BWE, Tilted updraft

6. What weather will it have? Existing Storm FORECASTS generates Issue whr. warning Obs, Radar Mental models use your Weather warnings Clues to run a Mental simulation to test that activate that let you recognise Diagnose severe storm weather Hail, downdraft or heavy rain