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Downscaling the Effects of Global Change on the Coastal Transition Zone of Western Iberian Peninsula

This study aims to understand the variability of the Iberian Upwelling Ecosystem (IUE) under future scenarios of global change. The research compares present conditions with predicted changes to the coastal transition zone of the Western Iberian Peninsula. The study utilizes climate models and ocean modeling systems to analyze temperature, salinity, and velocity profiles.

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Downscaling the Effects of Global Change on the Coastal Transition Zone of Western Iberian Peninsula

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  1. Downscaling the Effects of Global Change on the Coastal Transition Zone of Western Iberian Peninsula Jesús Dubert, Ana Pires, Rita Nolasco, Alfredo Rocha CESAM – Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar Universidade de Aveiro

  2. Main Goal: Contribute for understanding the variability of the IUE (Iberian Upwelling Ecosystem) for future scenarios of Global change, comparing with present state. • Main features: • North boundary of the Iberian-Canary Upwelling System • Summer: Açores anticyclone -> Northerly winds-> upwelling • - Winter: Poleward current

  3. Ocean Model: • ROMS – Regional Ocean Modeling System • Large domain - 1/5º resolutiom, 30 vertical levels - Intermediate domain -1/10º resolution, 30 vertical levels Small domain, Western Iberian Margin - 1/27º resolution, 60 vertical levels Initial and boundary conditions: Climatology WOA (World Ocean Atlas, Levitus 2001) Surface Forcing for Present: COADS (Comprehensive ocean atmosphere data set), http://icoads.noaa.gov/

  4. Present: COADS (Comprehensive ocean atmosphere data set), http://icoads.noaa.gov/ Levitus, World Ocean Atlas (WOA) • Climate models IPCC for future - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model version 3 (CGCM3) spatial resolution 3.75º for atmosphere and 1.85º for ocean - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model version 3 (CNRM-CM3); spatial resolution 2.8º for atmosphere and 2º for ocean - Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC), Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo (CCSR), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) et le Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC). spatial resolution 2.8º for atmosphere and 1.4º for ocean Scenario IPCC: A2 Future Climatology? Future Climatology= COADS present + (MIROC future – MIROC présent) Advantage: avoid systematic bias of the model.

  5. Surface: Temperature and Velocity– Smal Domaine - General inclrease of temperture field - Upwelling along the (four) seasons - No Poleward flow! - Increase of equatorward coastal flow. january april august november january august Future Présent

  6. Surface: Salinité – Small Domain • -strong decrease in salinity field (~ 1 unit) - Disparison of Poleward flow along the western margin. janvier avril août novembre Future Présent

  7. Salinity anomaly : Future – Present. AUGUST MIROC MODEL BLUE= FRESHER WATER IN THE FUTURE RED = SALTIER WATER IN THE FUTURE

  8. -A FUTURE SCENARIO OF OCEAN CIRCULATION AND WATER MASSES FOR THE IBERIAN MARGIN : • - Surface increase of temperature in the surface layer, and decrease of salinity (~1 unit ) • - Upwelling along the seasons, and increase equatorward flow. • Vanishement of Poleward flow.

  9. Upwelling/Poleward Current System – Small Domain - Decrease of salinity for central waters (Surface-700m) - Permanent Upwelling in the future - Disparison of Poleward flow during winter. Present, 38ºN, Aug Future, 38ºN, Aug Present, 42ºN, Jan Future, 42ºN, Jan Upwelling Increased Upwelling Poleward No Poleward Winter Upwelling!

  10. Salinity anomaly : Future – Present. AUGUST CGCM3 MODEL (CANADA) BLUE= FRESHER WATER IN THE FUTURE RED = SALTIER WATER IN THE FUTURE

  11. Salinity anomaly : Future – Present. AUGUST CNRM-CM3 MODEL BLUE= FRESHER WATER IN THE FUTURE RED = SALTIER WATER IN THE FUTURE

  12. “run”s of 10 years -> mean montly or last 5 years Small domain: Comparison present/future Poleward flow / Upwelling Vertical and Horizontal profiles of: . Temperature . Salinity . Velocity

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