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Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse Effect. Greenhouse Effect • U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse gas emissions By Reuters; story last modified Fri Jun 02 17:28:42 PDT 2006

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Greenhouse Effect

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  1. Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse Effect • U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse gas emissions By Reuters; story last modified Fri Jun 02 17:28:42 PDT 2006 Many rich nations' emissions of greenhouse gases rose in 2004, led by a U.S. rebound to record highs after a dip since President George W. Bush took office in 2001, according to data released on Friday. The figures, submitted by 33 governments to the U.N. Climate Secretariat in Bonn, Germany, showed that emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, widely blamed for global warming, rose to 15.1 billion tons in 2004 from 14.5 billion in 1990. Several nations, especially Russia, where smokestack emissions have plunged since the collapse of the Soviet Union, have yet to submit figures for 2004 so a full overview of industrial nations' emissions is not yet possible. Still, the data indicate that many nations will struggle to meet goals set by the United Nations' Kyoto Protocol to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases--mainly from power plants, factories and cars--by 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12. Emissions by the United States, the world's main source of greenhouse gases but which did not agree to the Kyoto Protocol, rose by 1.7 percent in 2004 from 2003 to 7.07 billion tons and eclipsed a previous peak of 6.98 billion in 2000. http://news.com.com/U.S.+tops+in+2004+greenhouse+gas+emissions/2100-11395_3-6079611.html

  2. Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse Effect • U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse gas emissions (Con’t) "Total U.S. emissions have risen by 15.8 percent from 1990 to 2004," the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said in its submission. Bush pulled out of Kyoto in 2001, saying it would cost U.S. jobs and wrongly excluded developing nations from its 2012 target. But the United States is a party to the U.N.'s broader 1992 climate convention, which aims to limit global warming. Many scientists say that a build-up of emissions is raising temperatures and could bring catastrophic changes including more heat waves, droughts, and melting ice caps that could raise world sea levels by almost a meter by 2100. Of the Kyoto backers, 17 of 30 industrialized countries were exceeding their targets by just over 300 million tons in 2004. On the positive side, however, the other 13 were ahead by more than 600 million tons--highlighting what some analysts say was a flaw in the green pact, giving over-generous targets to former communist states. Among Kyoto supporters, Spain was about 48 percent above 1990 levels and Portugal, Greece, Canada and Ireland were all at least 20 percent higher. http://news.com.com/U.S.+tops+in+2004+greenhouse+gas+emissions/2100-11395_3-6079611.html

  3. Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse Effect • U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse gas emissions (Con’t) Overall emissions in the 15 longest-standing members of the European Union edged up 0.2 percent in 2004 overall from 2003 to 4.24 billion tons. Overall, they were 1.1 percent below 1990 levels. At U.N. climate talks in Montreal last year, U.S. climate negotiator Harlan Watson had pointed to Washington's success in cracking down under Bush."Look at the data--the United States has done better in the first three years of the Bush administration in addressing greenhouse gas emissions than the EU...the U.K., France, Germany," he said. Canada's new conservative government said last month that its Kyoto goal was "unachievable" since the country was 35 percent above target and 27 percent above 1990 levels.Japan was 7 percent above its 1990 emissions levels in 2004, a difference of 83 million tons compared to its Kyoto target of a 6 percent fall. http://news.com.com/U.S.+tops+in+2004+greenhouse+gas+emissions/2100-11395_3-6079611.html

  4. Greenhouse Gases & Climate Science Concepts Definition Radiation Budget Shortwave Transmission Longwave Absorption Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Effect Changes Water Vapor Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide CFCs Ozone The Earth System (Kump, Kastin & Crane) • Chap. 1 (pp. 2, 4-5, 41-42, 44, 46-48)

  5. Greenhouse Effect http://www.igpp.lanl.gov/Climate_Images/Climate13.gif

  6. 95% of Solar Radiation 95% of Earth’s Radiation Vis- ible Near UV IR Far Infrared H O 2 CO 2 100 O O , 3 CO , 2 2 CO , 2 O H O 3 2 H O 2 Absorption (%) H O 2 50 0 0.3 0.5 1.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Wavelength (microns) Greenhouse Effect Solar and Earth-Emitted Radiation Absorption by Atmospheric Gases Atmosphere is transparent to most of Sun’s emitted radiation wavelengths Atmosphere absorbs most of Earth’s emitted radiation wavelengths

  7. Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse Effect • Earth's atmosphere is transparent to solar shortwave radiation, i.e., allows most of solar radiation to penetrate to the surface • Earth's atmosphere is opaque to Earth's longwave radiation, i.e., absorbs most longwave radiation Result of Greenhouse Effect VenusEarthMars Surface Pressure (Relative to Earth) 90 1.0 0.007 Main Greenhouse >90% CO2 ~0.04% CO2 >80% CO2 Gases ~1.4% H2O Temperature (No Greenhouse) -46°C -18°C -57°C (Greenhouse) 477°C 15°C -47°C Difference 523°C 33°C 10°C

  8. Greenhouse Gases Changes in Greenhouse Gases Since 1850 • Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have risen dramatically in this century EOS, 1999: Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases.T.S. Ledley, E.T. Sundquist, S.E. Schwartz, D.K. Hall, J.D. Fellows and T.L. Killeen. 80, p. 453.

  9. Greenhouse Gases U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2004 • U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 (million metric tons and percentage) - Metric tonne (abbreviated as ton) is a weight equivalent of 1000 kg > About 2205 lbs • Other CO2 are from non-combustion sources Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf

  10. Greenhouse Gases U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Changes • CO2 emissions changes from 1990 to 2004 indexed using 1990 • CO2 emissions per unit Gross Domestic Product have fallen relative to 1990 • CO2 emissions per capita are above 1990 levels. Increasing population growth and rising CO2 emissions per capita have resulted in increased aggregate CO2 emissions per year from 1990 to 2004. Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf

  11. Greenhouse Gases U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Changes (Con’t) • CO2 emissions changes from 1990 to 2004 indexed using 1990 • All sector CO2 emissions have increased since 1990 except for 1990-1991 when transportation and industrial sectors decreased because of an economic recession and higher oil prices following Iraqi invasion of Kuwait • Industrial sector has decreased since 1998 • Decrease in residential sector is ascribed mainly to a 3.5% drop in natural gas use because of warmer weather that reduced heating degree-days by 5.9% Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf

  12. Greenhouse Gases Not All Greenhouse Gases Are Equal • The Global Warming Potential (GWP) of a greenhouse gas is defined as the ratio of the time-integrated radiative forcing from the instantaneous release of 1 kg of that substance relative to that of 1 kg of a reference gas. The reference gas used is CO2. Global Warming Potentials (GWP; 100 Year Time Horizon) GasLifetimeGWP CO2 50-200 1 CH4 9-15 21* N2O 120 310 HFC-23 264 11,700 HFC-32 5.6 650 HFC-125 32.6 2,800 HFC-134a 14.6 1,300 HFC-143a 48.3 3,800 HFC-152a 1.5 140 HFC-227ea 36.5 26,300 HFC-4310mee 17.1 1,300 * The methane GWP includes the direct effects and those indirect effects due to the production of tropospheric/stratospheric water vapor. The indirect effect due to the production of CO2 is not included. http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/ globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/ RAMR69V528/$File/05executivesummary.pdf

  13. Greenhouse Gases Water Vapor (H2O) • Primary greenhouse gas Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Increased 10% since 1958; 25% since early 19th century • Sources - 80% of emissions from fossil fuel - 20% from burning and decay in deforestation process

  14. Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Temperature and CO2 Derived from Antarctic Ice Cores Local (Antarctic) Temperature Difference from Modern Temperature (°C) 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 -10 -10 300 300 280 280 260 260 CO2 (ppm) 240 240 220 220 200 200 180 180 0 40 80 120 160 Age (kyrs BP)

  15. 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 -175000 -150000 -125000 -100000 -75000 -50000 -25000 0 Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Atmospheric CO2 http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/slides/slideset/15/15_300_slide.html Vostok, Antarctica Siple Station, West Antarctica Mauna Loa (Annual) Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppm) Year

  16. 360 340 320 300 280 260 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Atmospheric CO2 Siple Station, West Antarctica Mauna Loa (Annual) Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppm) Year

  17. Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Mauna Loa, HI 19° 32' N, 155° 34' W, 3,397 altitude CO2 Concentration (ppmv) 2002 http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htm

  18. Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Note change in time - annual cycle • Note latitudinal variation http://gaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg.html ppm 370 340 80°N Latitude EQ 2000 Year 80°S 1984 335 370

  19. Greenhouse Gases • AVHRR Vegetation • Index • • Global distribution • of vegetation • - Red and near- • infrared - • combined for • single image • - Healthy • vegetation appears • green and arid • areas look brown. February 1992 September 1992 http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/CAMPAIGN_DOCS/LAND_BIO/Ed_Autumn_Illustration.html

  20. Greenhouse Gases AVHRR Vegetation Index • Global 1982-1998 Vegetation Index http://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Observatory/

  21. Greenhouse Gases Phytoplankton Bloom • Chlorophyll - Red most; Blue least Jan 2004 Apr 2004 Jul 2004 Oct 2004 http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi/level3.pl? DAY=20Oct2004&PER=&TYP=machl&RRW=16

  22. Greenhouse Gases CO2 National/Region Emissions • 1995 versus projected 2035 • Note change in distribution • Note almost doubling of total release U.S. CO2 Emissions and Source http://www.epa.gov/reg3artd/images/warm.jpg

  23. Greenhouse Gases CO2 Per Capita Emissions • Note - USA is largest - House heating and automobile travel are a large portion of emissions - USA reduced per capita emissions between 1973 and 1991; slight increase between 1991 and 1997 http://eetd.lbl.gov/newsletter/cbs_nl/nl15/ghg.html Carbon emissions per capita 1973 versus 1991 by major end use

  24. Greenhouse Gases CO2 Per Units of Economic Output (Gross National Product) Emissions GNP Emissions/GNP Ratio Country (metric tons CO2/year) (billions of $/year) (metric tons CO2/year) China 2,236.3 372.3a 6.01b South Africa 284.2 79.0 3.60 Romania 220.7 79.8a 2.77b Poland 459.4 172.4 2.66 India 600.6 237.9 2.52 East Germany 327.4 159.5a 2.05a Czechoslovakia 233.6 123.2a 1.90b Mexico 306.9 176.7 1.74 U.S.S.R. 3,982.0 2,659.5a 1.50b South Korea 204.6 171.3 1.19 Canada 437.8 435.9 1.00 United States 4,804.1 4,880.1 0.98 Australia 241.3 246.0 0.98 United Kingdom 559.2 702.4 0.80 Brazil 202.4 323.6 0.63 West Germany 669.9 1,201.8 0.56 Spain 187.7 340.3 0.55 Italy 359.7 828.9 0.43 Japan 989.3 2,843.7 0.35 France 320.1 949.4 0.34 a Estimates of GNP for centrally planned economies are subject to large margins of error. These estimates are as much 100 times larger than those from other sources that correct for availability of goods or use free-market exchange rates. b The emissions/GNP is also likely to be underestimated for centrally planned economies. Source: National Academy of Sciences, Policy Implications of Global Warming (Washington, D.C.: 1991). National Academy of Sciences, 1992: Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base

  25. Greenhouse Gases Number of pounds of carbon dioxide emitted into the air for each mile driven in a passenger car that gets 22 mpg: 0.9 Number of pounds of carbon dioxide produced by burning 1 gallon of gasoline: 19 Gasoline is a hydrocarbon such as “heptane” or C7H16. “Burning” gasoline means to oxidize or to chemically combine it with oxygen. Ideally when gasoline combines with oxygen it produces carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O). Heptane + Oxygen => Carbon Dioxide + Water C7H16 + 11 O2=> 7 CO2 + 8 H2O Carbon (C) “weighs” 12 atomic units; hydrogen (H) 1 atomic unit; and oxygen (O) 16 atomic units. So C7H16 + 11 O2 => 7 CO2 + 8 H2O (7)(12)+(16)(1) (22)(16) (7)(12)+(14)(16) (16)(1)+(8)(16) 100 units + 352 units => 308 units + 144 units Gasoline weighs ~ 5.666 lb per gal. Thus, C7H16 + 11 O2 => 7 CO2 + 8 H2O 5.666 lb + 19.94 lb => 17.45 lb + 8.15 lb

  26. Greenhouse Gases • In the United States, transportation consumes 67% of petroleum used, over half of which is imported. • Over three-quarters of transportation energy use is by highway vehicles—60% by cars and light trucks (including minivans and SUVs) and 16% by heavy trucks. Transportation energy consumption is increasing by 1.8% per year, faster than any other major category of energy use. http://www.aceee.org/energy/cafe.htm • Motor vehicles are responsible for about 31% of all carbon dioxide emission in the U.S. • Worldwide the percentage is about 15% Lyman, Francesca, 1990: The Greenhouse Trap. Beacon Press, Boston. pp. xiii-xiv. Lyman, Francesca, 1990: The Greenhouse Trap. Beacon Press, Boston. p. 38. Source: 1980, 1990, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/appendixe.html 2002, preliminary estimate calculated for the flash estimate.

  27. Greenhouse Gases Note Changes (1975, 1987, 1997, 2006) • Combined mpg 13.1, 22.1, 20.9, 21.0 mpg • Light truck & SUV percentage 19, 28, 42, 50% • Combined weight 4060, 3220, 3727, 4142 lbs • Combined horsepower 137, 118, 169, 219 hp • Examples (2006): Honda & Toyota Hybrid ~60 mpg GM K1500 Sierra AWD 15 mpg Best SUV Ford Escape Hydrid FWD 33.3 mpg Heavenrich, R.M., 2006: Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2006, EPA420-R-06-011 http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm

  28. Greenhouse Gases NBC’s Today Show • May 13, 2005 - Will this summer's travel plans become a pain in the pump? As part of an NBC News series looking at increasing gas prices, "Today" sent three families driving from L.A. to N.Y. in six days, using three different vehicles, for its "Today's Great American Gas Challenge." "Today" touches base with the families as they report back live about their experiences from that day's destination. - "Today's Great American Gas Challenge" contestants were: 
 
 Riley family (Redding ,CA)Vehicle: Lincoln Navigator (SUV; 15 mpg) Fowler family (Long Beach, CA)Vehicle: Ford 500 (Midsize; 25 mpg) Pletcher family (Thousand Oaks, CA)Vehicle: Honda Civic Hybrid (40 mpg) - Most expensive gas for trip 
- Ludlow, CA - $2.96/gallon Cheapest gas for trip - Howe, IN - $1.91/gallon - Gas Mileage and Total Amount Spent on Gas Riley Family (SUV): 17 mpg - $459.27 Fowler Family (Midsize): 26 mpg - 
 $277.98 Pletcher Family (Hybrid): 42 mpg -
 $172.67

  29. Greenhouse Gases New Hummer H1 2006 4X4 Engine = 300-horsepower turbo-diesel V8 Curb Weight = 7,847 lbs Full Capacity = 52.5 gal Crusing Range = Nearly 600 miles Why are gas prices so high? “Who’s to blame? Americans point fingers at the oil companies, foreign nations that control the oil supply, and politicians.” Huntsville Times, Friday 22 April 2005, Front page http://www.hummer.com/ “Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.” Leo Tolstoy - Russian novelist (1828 - 1910) “The basic question is this: given human nature, are any of us really capable of change?” Sue Grafton - R is for Ricochet, p. 1

  30. Greenhouse Gases Steps to Save Gas and Reduce Pollution • Never top off your tank. Expansion will cause your excess to spill out. • Keep your tires properly inflated. You lose 2% fuel efficiency for each pound of pressure you're low. • Tighten your gas cap. Gas can evaporate, causing your check-engine light to come on. • Make sure you are ready to go. Idling for 2 min uses enough fuel to drive one mile. • Make sure your wheels are aligned. Poor alignment causes the engine to work harder. • Drive 55 mph instead of 65. That can get you up to three more miles per gallon. • Keep steady pressure on the gas pedal and use cruise control when possible. • Remove bike racks, carriers, etc. They can increase fuel consumption by five miles per gallon. • Use your air conditioner in town as little as possible. It uses 3 to 5% more fuel. But opening windows on the highway can cost you 10% in fuel economy. • Travel light. Make sure you are not carrying extra weight that could be left out. The lighter the car, the better gas mileage you get. • Make sure you car is properly maintained. Get a tuneup and get the car serviced if the check-engine light comes on. • Plan trips so that you take the shortest, most direct routes and make trips in one outing. Huntsville Times (Sunday March 13, 2005) Source: AAA Alabama

  31. Greenhouse Gases Meat Grain Energy * Water (per lb)(lbs)(gals of gasoline)(gallons) Pork 6.9 0.44 430 Beef 4.8 0.25 390 Chicken 2.8 0.19 375 Eggs 2.6 0.14 n/a Milk 0.1 0.02 n/a * Energy equivalent of a gallon of gasoline is used for comparison, most of the energy is natural gas used in fertilizer production for grain. American’s annual consumption of red meat and poultry together is at an all-time high of 178 lbs per person for 1990, up from 137 lbs in 1955. The average American consumed in 1990 65 lbs of beef and veal, 63 lbs of poultry, 49 lbs of pork, 139 eggs, products made from 70 gals of milk. Durning, Alan B., 1991: Fat of the land. World-Watch. 4:3, pp. 11-17.

  32. Greenhouse Gases • 40% of the world’s grain production, and more than 70% of the U.S. production, is fed to livestock. If all this grain were used to feed people, it would feed five times as many people as it does after being converted to meat, milk and eggs. It would also use less energy and produce less carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. • A one pound steak has about the same greenhouse-warming effect as a 25-mile drive in a typical American car. Durning, Alan B., 1991: Fat of the land. World-Watch. 4:3, pp. 11-17.

  33. Greenhouse Gases Global Warming/CO2 Effects?? • From 1982 to 1999, in addition to increased CO2, the climate grew warmer, wetter and sunnier, and for the most part, plants flourished (Green areas) • Note global primary productivity (NPP) between 1982-1999 25% of Earth’s vegetated area experienced increased plant productivity,total increase of ~6% • Note El Niño years decreased overall plant growth • Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo also decreased NPP El Niño Years http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/GlobalGarden/

  34. Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide Effects • Increases in CO2 stimulate the growth of plants while reducing their water requirements • As plants grow more, they remove more CO2 from the atmosphere and contribute additional organic carbon to the food web • Will benefits to plants help offset the deleterious effects of rising CO2 concentrations? • Exposing portions of ecosystems to elevated CO2 in outdoor chambers ` to test http://www.serc.si.edu/ SERC_web_html/ research.htm http://www.serc.si.edu/SERC_web_html/resglobal.htm

  35. Greenhouse Gases Methane (CH4) • 3.5 billion years ago, there was 1,000 times more CH4. Earliest CH4 formed by volcanoes and ancient bacteria that converted H2 and CO2 into CH4 and H2O • Makes up 96% of natural gas • 50 million more tons per year into atmosphere • Sources - Rotting of organic matter in peat bogs - Wetlands, rice patties, landfills - Bacteria living in digestive tracks of farm animals such as cattle - Termites Pounds of Garbage Produced Per Person Per Year U.S. 1,637 Norway 1,183 Netherlands 1,100 Germany 823 Sweden 662 France 572 Italy 548 Portugal 367 Recycling Advocate

  36. 1700 1675 1650 Methane Concentration 1625 Methane Concentration (ppm) 1600 1575 1550 1912 1924 1948 1960 1972 1984 1996 1900 1936 Year Greenhouse Gases Methane (CH4) • Global CH4 change since 1900 • U.S. CH4 source and change since 1990 Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf

  37. Greenhouse Gases Nitrous Oxide (N2O) • Globally N2O increased 10% since 1880; 0.2-0.3% per year • In stratosphere, helps destroy ozone • U.S. sources and change since 1990 • Sources - Coal burning - Forest fires - Bacterial action on chemical fertilizers Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf

  38. Greenhouse Gases Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) • Sources - Refrigeration and air conditioning - Aerosols - Blowing agent in plastic foams - Solvent for cleaning electronic parts - Some fire extinguishers

  39. Greenhouse Gases Ozone • 10% in troposphere; 90% in stratosphere • Lifespan hours to days • Sources - Photochemical chemistry - Some manmade 100 90 300 80 250 70 200 60 Height (kft) 50 150 Height (km) Ozone 40 Concentration 100 30 Stratosphere 20 50 10 Troposphere 80 -120 -80 -40 0 40 Temperature (°F)

  40. Greenhouse Gases Growth Rate of Greenhouse Gases • Growth rate is decreasing since high in 1980s • Largely because of reductions in CFCs http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/

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