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CAPS Early Commercialization Activities 1996-2000

CAPS Early Commercialization Activities 1996-2000. Richard Carpenter Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. June 2014. Project Hub-CAPS 1996-1999. 3-year, $1M R&D effort between OU and American Airlines “CAPS + Hub airports” Goals:

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CAPS Early Commercialization Activities 1996-2000

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  1. CAPS Early Commercialization Activities1996-2000 Richard Carpenter Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. June 2014

  2. Project Hub-CAPS1996-1999 • 3-year, $1M R&D effort between OU and American Airlines • “CAPS + Hub airports” • Goals: • to demonstrate the practicability of storm-scale numerical weather prediction for commercial aviation • to customize and integrate the CAPS forecast system into AA operations • to end with a usable system that can be run daily for or by AA • Prompted by 29 Apr 1995 DFW Hailstorm • Severely damaged 80 AA aircraft

  3. Hub-CAPS Personnel • CAPS Director • Kelvin Droegemeier • American Airlines • Warren Qualley, Roy Strasser • Hub-CAPS Staff • Richard Carpenter, Gene Bassett, Jason Levit • Other CAPS Staff • Keith Brewster, Ming Xue, Steve Weygandt, David Jahn, Al Shapiro, Fred Carr, Min Zou • Students • Project COMET-Tinker: Capt. Chris Stock, John Mewes, Eric Kemp • Chris Hudgin, Casey Crosbie, Mike Klatt, Jason Lynn, Shannon Stevenson

  4. Year 1: 1996-97 • Built Perl-based ARPSControl forecast system • Humble beginnings • One 9 km grid, 9 hr forecast each day • 12Z RUC, surface obs, 16Z ADAS analysis • Early forecasts had issues • Convective spin-up, surface physics, coarse grid, lateral boundaries • Cray J90 upgraded from 8 to 16 processors • Presentations at 1997-99 AMS Aviation Conferences • Resistance from AA’s union forecasters • Added workload • Effect of automation on job security • Distrust of early forecasts

  5. Year 2: 1997-98 • Added outer 27-km grid • 4x daily on 27 km, 6-hr 20Z forecast on 9 km • Greatly improved the spin-up problem • Added satellite and radar data • ADAS cloud analysis • More and better products • Aviation Impact Variables • Improved quality and timeliness of products • Added animations to web page • Began reporting on forecast system health • Opened up web access • Used by airlines, TV stations, NOAA, USAF, FAA • Onsite at AA Weather Services • Conducted training sessions • Forecast evaluation and interviews • 62% rated forecasts good to excellent • 36% felt Hub-CAPS made a positive impact on their forecast

  6. Hub-CAPS gets noticed • Mentioned in NWSFO and SPC discussions • THE ARPS SHOWS PRECIP STREAKING DIRECTLY ACROSS DFW • LATEST ARPS MODEL INDICATES THAT MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NWD • “We at the Fort Worth ARTCC Center Weather Service Unit have been using your Hub-CAPS site for some time now, and we find it to be one of the best forecast tools for the D/FW area” • Tom Hicks, Meteorologist-in-Charge, Center Weather Services Unit, Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center • “We live and die by your web page” • Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN TV-9, Chicago

  7. Year 3: 1998-99 • CRAFT – Real-time Level II NEXRAD data • Implemented during AMS-99 • KTLX, KFWS • Improved grid nesting • 30/8/4 km • Introduced Ensembles and Forecast Cycling • Ingested AA MDCRS data • AA endowed professorship in OU School of Meteorology • Currently Alan Shapiro

  8. AMS Annual Meeting 1999 (AMS-99), Dallas • Real-time ARPS Forecasts and Analyses • Dedicated 128-node Origin-2000at NCSA • 32/9/3 km forecasts • Real-time Ingest of Fort Worth radar • Kiosks provided by SGI • Daily Weather Briefings (Steve Weygandt) Kelvin, Chancellor Hans Brisch, AA EVP Bob Baker, John Snow

  9. 6 January 1999 Fog Burnoff Forecast

  10. Humble beginnings of a web page

  11. Final configuration of web page showing time index and past runs

  12. Sample ARPSView Products Downburst Potential Surface Isotachs & Streamlines CAPE & Helicity Downburst Potential Surface Isotachs & Streamlines CAPE & Helicity Surface Visibility Clear-Air Turbulence Icing Potential

  13. CAPS/wx web page today

  14. Weather Decision Technologies • “Launched out of OU” • OU 10% ownership • Royalties for exclusive licenses to ARPS and WxScope (Oklahoma Climate Survey) • Incorporated 1999, began operations 2000 • Continued providing 6-km forecasts to AA • Collaboration with CAPS • Williams Energy • ADAS-WRF for Paraguay (2004) • Western Resources, Kansas (2000-2002) • MetroCast for Kavouras/Meteorlogix (2000-2003) • Run ARPS at TV stations on 4 proc SGI workstation

  15. Weather Decision Technologies– Today • Located across the street in Partners Place 3 • 86 full-time employees, 38 with MS or higher • 6 CAPS alumni • AMS Fellow (Mike Eilts) • 4 CCMs • 2011 AMS Award for Outstanding Contributions by a Corporation • Serving on AMS committees • Areas of Expertise • NWP, Radar/Nowcasting, Asset Protection, Enterprise and Consumer Alerting, Scalable Data Delivery • Licensed and patented technologies • NWP • ARPSControl (Perl)  WRFControl (Python) • 200+ forecasts/day on 4 continents • Dedicated systems in Philippines, Dubai, Thailand

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