1 / 11

Value of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Information: A Methodological Review

Value of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Information: A Methodological Review. Asim Zia, Rebecca Morss and Jeff Lazo National Center for Atmospheric Research Societal Impacts Program (SIP) 25 th International Symposium on Forecasting June 15, 2005. Context and motivation.

amela-blevins
Download Presentation

Value of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Information: A Methodological Review

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Value of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Information: A Methodological Review Asim Zia, Rebecca Morss and Jeff Lazo National Center for Atmospheric Research Societal Impacts Program (SIP) 25th International Symposium on Forecasting June 15, 2005

  2. Context and motivation • QPF feed into high-impact weather forecasts (floods, snow storms, hurricanes) • QPF is research focus for USWRP • SIP objective - synthesize knowledge about societal impacts and value of weather forecast information

  3. Outline • Research objectives • Methods • Results • Recommendations

  4. Research Objectives • Which methodological frameworks have been or could have been used to measure the value of QPF/weather information? • Synthesize existing knowledge about value of QPF/weather information

  5. Methods • Literature review • Qualitative meta-analysis • Informal expert interviews

  6. Bayesian decision theories Psychology Public management Economic valuation theories Sociology Environmental / natural resource management Results: Methodological frameworks

  7. Results: Methodological frameworks • Bayesian decision theory • one shot game: static Cost/Loss • sequential game: dynamic Cost/Loss

  8. Results: Methodological frameworks • Economic valuation • non-market valuation • stated preference • contingent valuation • conjoint analysis • market valuation • producers under risk and uncertainty • partial equilibrium analysis • Weather derivatives • general equilibrium

  9. Results: Methodological frameworks • Psychology • descriptive decision models • risk management models • Sociology • group theory models • ethnographic and anthropologic

  10. Results: Methodological frameworks • Public management • emergency management • organizational behavior • Environmental / natural resource management • water conservation • water quality

  11. Recommendations • Extend Bayesian decision models • n-person non-cooperative and cooperative games • organizational decision making • Extend economic valuation • non-market valuation studies with focus on QPF information • general equilibrium analysis • More research on • psychological and sociological aspects • descriptive decision models • Public management • Environment • Extend to valuation of other (weather) forecast information

More Related