Will International Migration Continue Forever? Reflections on Demography and Migration

1. Will International Migration Continue Forever?Reflections on Demography and Migration Rainer Münz KNOMAD Seminar Washington DC, May 1st, 2014

2. Unequal population growth

3. Europe’s and Russia’s population is shrinking, MENA, Africa and W. Asia are growingProjected population growth, 2010-2050, in % to -20 % -20% - -5% -5% - 0% 0% - 25% 25% - 75% 75% - 100% 100% - 150% 150% - 200% above 200% n. a. Source: Berlin Institute

4. The main driver of this population change: Very unequal numbers of childrenNumber of children per woman (total fertility), 2010-2015 Source: UN DESA

5. During the last six decades, the overall number of children per woman has halved Total fertility by world regions, 1950-2015 Source: UN DESA

6. Young and ageing societies

8. Since 170 years our life span has always increasedLife expectancy, 1840-2010, in years (highest national value) Norway New Zealand Island Sweden Japan Netherlands Switzerland Australia Source: Oeppen u. Vauoel 2002

9. Europe + Japan have the oldest population, MENA, Africa, South + SE Asia are still youngShare of age group 65+ in total population, in % n. a. to 3% 3% - 6% 6% - 9% 9% - 12% 12% - 15% above 15% Source: UN DESA

10. Europa wird älter Europe is agingPopulation of EU 28 by age and gender 2050 Age 2010 1950 men women (2010) men women (2050) Source: Eurostat

11. Diverging trends affecting future labour forces and possibly labor migration

12. The working-age population will shrink in Europe and China, but not in Africa and IndiaPopulation age 20-65, 1950-2050, in mn, by major countries / regions Source: UN DESA

13. The labour supply in Europe and Russia will shrink, but it will increase in MENA and Africa Development of labour force until 2020, in % ? below -5% -5% - 0% 0% - 10% 10%- 20% above 20% Source: based on ILO data 2011

14. Economic imbalances

15. In recent years MENA and Africa were growing while Europe had a recessionAverage real GDP growth, 2008-12, in % Source: IMF

16. Emerging markets continue to outgrow the advanced economiesContribution to global GDP growth Source: Financial Times

17. Global migration in history

18. Four global flows: Slave trade European expansion Indian migration Chinese migration

19. European expansion, 1750-1960: From settlement to labour migration Central Asia, Siberia Palestine/Israel Algeria Northern and Southern America, The Caribbean Australia, New Zealand South Africa Migration from Europe to less developed peripheries Europe’s answer to rapid population growth 70 mn Europeans migrated to overseas’ destinations

20. World migration, 1945-1950 Germany/Austria, Poland/Ukraine, etc. India/ Pakistan China/Taiwan Palestine/ Israel More migrants in the global South than in the North

21. Migration pattern today

22. Migration (a) stocks: 232 million 750 million

23. Migration (a) flows: 40 million

24. The number of international migrants increases Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population 1990 2000 2010 2013 United Nations, Population Division/DESA

25. There is, however, a lot of uncertainty Double-entry matrix for selected EU countries, 2003 I = Receiving country’s reported flow E = sending country’s reported flow … = no reported data available Source: James Raymer

26. International migrants in 2013 by major macro region of origin and destination Emigrant stock: origin black Immigrant stock: destination yellow In: 53.1 m Out: 4.3 m In: 72.4 m Out: 58.5 m In: 70.8 m Out: 92.6 m In: 8.5 m Out: 36.7 m In: 18.6 m Out 30.9 m In: 7.9 m Out: 1.8 m Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision

27. Where do they come from? Where do they go to?International migrants by origin and destination, 1990, 2010, in mn Source: United Nations, Population Division

28. Magnet societies: EU, US, Asia International migrant stock by macro region, 1990 – 2013, in mn 2013 1990 Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision

29. Today migrants come from middle- and low-income countries Net migration rates 2005-2010 (annual average per 1000)

30. But most of today‘s migrant sending countries will outgrow today‘s receiving countries Average GDP growth forecast, 2012-18 (in % per year) Data Source:IMF

31. below -5% . -5% to -2% -2% to 0% 0 to +2 +2% to +5% above +5% Net migration in Europe 2001-2010Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants Source: Eurostat, UN DESA

32. Net migration in Europe 2010-2012 Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants below -5% . -5% to -2% -2% to 0% 0 to +2 +2% to +5% above +5% Direction changed recently Source: Eurostat and own calculations 2013

33. Above income levels of US-$ 9,000 per capita net-emigration stops Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants (2005-10) Data Source:UN; Erste Research

34. Migration patterns tomorrow?

35. The number of international migrants is projected to increase further Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population 1990-2000 growth rate 2000-2010 growth rate 2010-2013 growth rate 1990 2000 2010 2013 2030 United Nations, Population Division/DESA

36. The number of international migrants is projected to increase further Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population 1990-2000 growth rate 2000-2010 growth rate 2010-2013 growth rate 1990 2000 2010 2013 2050 Source: United Nations, Population Division

37. Net migratory flows to more developed countries1950-2010 (actual), 2010-2100 (different projections), in mn All more developed countries USA Gravity model UNPD estimate Linear model WPP2010 projection xx

38. Why does it matter?Contribution of international migration to population growth / decline by 2050 as proportion of the total population in 2010

39. Where does it matter?Contribution of natural growth and international migration to population growth/decline, 1950-2050 , in mn Source: Henning; Cohen

40. Thank you for your attention! rainer.muenz@erstegroup.com