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1. 1104 The ALERT signal of ground level enhancements of solar cosmicrays: physics basis, the ways of realization and development Anashin V., Belov A., Eroshenko E., Krjakunova O., Mavromichalaki H., Ishutin I.,Sarlanis C., Souvatsoglo G., Vashenyuk E.and Yanke V. Russian Institute of Space Device Engineering, Moscow, Russia Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation RAS (IZMIRAN), Moscow, Russia Institute of Ionosphere of National Center of Space Research and Technologies, Almaty, Kazakhstan Nuclear and Particle Physics Section, Physics Department, Athens University, Greece Polar Geophysical Institute, Apatity, Russia IGY

2. Using the data from neutron monitornetwork observation the system of the ALERTsignal generation is elaborated about, as groundlevel proton enhancements, so for search for solarneutron increases. On this basis the service with the warning notification by e-mail about the onset ofSolar CR increase is organized. Possibility of self-testingof system isprovided. Fluxes of high energy protons of solar flaresreach huge sizes (>1000 pfu) and, hence, the forecastand an estimation of such fluxes is extremely importantpractical problem. Having definedaccording to ground level cosmic ray stations of thespectra of particles responsible for GLE, it is possible toestimate fluxes and behaviour of the protons, in particular,>100 MeV, outside ofmagnetosphere on sometens hours prior to maximum danger flux. Forautomatic start of corresponding programs on spectradefinition and the solving this problem in real time,it is necessary to have a signal ALERT, warning on the beginning of GLE. The presentwork becamepossible with creation of a database of the neutronmonitor network in real time (NMDB project)

3. Time scale of the response to solar disturbances at Earth and scale of prognosis by NOAA+ GLE+SolarNeutrons IGY

4. ALERT OF SOLAR PROTONS IGY Illustration oftime delay in different energy profiles from the onset of X-ray flare (for the event on July 14, 2000)

5. IGY The onset of GLE60 at different polar stations; Insertions at a level of 5% shows the onset

6. IGY Block-scheme of the system for generation of ALERT signal for proton ground level enhancement

7. This approach is realized on the IZMIRAN server The picture of interface is presented in this figure The presentwork becamepossible with creation of a database of the neutronmonitor network in real time (NMDB project) IGY Interface of ALERT Service: http://cr0.izmiran.ru/GLE-AlertAndProfilesPrognosing/index.htm

8. You can look at the results in digital form of calculated at every minute in real time, clicking the button “Protocol of working program” IGY

9. Resulting Table updated each minute in real time and presenting the information for the last 12 minutes IGY For each minute we can see: total number operating stations in the list of NMDB; number of stations used for analysis; number of stations showed an increase of counting rate higher of fixed threshold. The program works out ALERT signal if an increase is observed at more than 80% of used stations

10. ALERT OF SOLAR NEUTRONS Solar neutron observations are 10 times more rare events as compared with protons, however these data together with data on X-ray flares and gamma radiation allow to get important information about the source of accelerated particles on the Sun. For observation of solar neutron the high mountain equatorial stations are ideal if observe the event in the summer at local midday. We considered only detectors which publish their data in real time. Applicants for possible neutron increase can be only those which are accompanied by X-ray flares of a class above X1. The program auto-testing of a system Solar Neutron Alert is elaborated and included in the internet project. IGY

11. ALERT OF SOLAR NEUTRONS IGY Block-scheme of the system of producing ALERT signal of the solor neutron

12. ALERT OF SOLAR NEUTRONS http://cr0.izmiran.ru/SolarNeutronMonitoring/index.htm IGY Interface of ALERT Service Clicking the red sign of station we get the resulting Table which shows calculations in real time of the CR variations at this stations, results of testing analysis and conclusions, if this station at this moment records real solar neutron effect (after comparing with X-ray data).

13. Example of resulting Table on searching of solar neutron effect at station Jungfraujoch (3NM64) IGY

14. CONCLUSION • The algorithm of generation of alert signal about ground level proton increase on the basis of the one-minutedata of the neutron monitor network is developedand realized. The developed Internet project providespossibility of formation of the electronic warning signaland its automatic dispatch. • Thedeveloped system of selection of applicants for solarneutron increase allows to form the list of possibleincreases in real time and carry out the internal controlof system. • The developed Internet project providespossibility of formation of the electronic message andits automatic dispatch. At the given stage the cone ofreception of solar neutrons got out wide enough, namely2 hour relatively local midday. • In project developmentit is supposed to involve results of another work when suchchoice can be detailed taking into account probabilitiesof arrival of neutrons in the given point and at presentdays.