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Present Status of the Climate Forecast System (CFS)

Present Status of the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Twice daily 9-months forecasts making a monthly ensemble of 40-60 members. 15-member reforecasts per month 1981 – 2005 Calibration Skill estimate Analog and statistical forecasts

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Present Status of the Climate Forecast System (CFS)

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  1. Present Status of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) • Twice daily 9-months forecasts making a monthly ensemble of 40-60 members. • 15-member reforecasts per month 1981 – 2005 • Calibration • Skill estimate • Analog and statistical forecasts • Products available on operational servers and on CPC and CTB web sites

  2. CFS development work in progress • 5-year 4-times daily 60-day forecasts using a 100-km version of the CFS 2000 – 2004 for 2+ months for summer and winter • Look for useful products to fill the forecast gap between week2 and seasonal. • NCO computer resource allocated • Toward a seamless suite of products • Multi-model ensemble • Test run the GFDL model, toward ESMF • GMAO very interested in participating in ESMF and reforecast • Working with COLA to get NCAR interested

  3. CFS model development • Sensitivity experiments with newer versions of the GFS (CMIP) • Sensitivity experiments with the new land model of the GFS (reforecasts) • CTB sponsored sensitivity experiments • MOM4 tests plus new sea-ice model. Both in higher resolution • Efficient coupler is nearly ready and will reduce computer resource demands • Making better use of the CFS forecasts (PNA, MJO, NAO, analogs)

  4. Plan and challenge • Look for improved model (for ENSO and North America predictions) in 2006-2007 to start the next upgrade of the CFS, With help from CTB, work on improved products from the CFS • Look for resources (cpus, disks, people) for the reanalysis and reforecast to be completed in 2007-2008 in time for 2008 upgrade of the CFS • Accelerate model improvements through CTB funding for future CFS upgrades • Reanalysis was the weak link (tropics); Need Reanalysis with each model upgrade.

  5. 15-member CFS reforecasts

  6. 15-member CFS reforecasts

  7. 15-member CFS reforecasts 15-member CFS reforecasts

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