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Walter E. Baethgen (IRI Columbia University-INIA, Uruguay) Agustin Gimenez (INIA, Uruguay)

Observed changes in climatic variables relevant for agricultural production during 1930-2000 in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay (AIACC Project No. LA27). Walter E. Baethgen (IRI Columbia University-INIA, Uruguay) Agustin Gimenez (INIA, Uruguay)

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Walter E. Baethgen (IRI Columbia University-INIA, Uruguay) Agustin Gimenez (INIA, Uruguay)

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  1. Observed changes in climatic variables relevant for agricultural production during 1930-2000 in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay (AIACC Project No. LA27) Walter E. Baethgen (IRI Columbia University-INIA, Uruguay) Agustin Gimenez (INIA, Uruguay) Graciela Magrin (INTA-Argentina) Maria I. Travasso (INTA-Argentina) Gilberto Cunha (EMBRAPA, Brasil) Mauricio Fernandes (EMBRAPA, Brasil)

  2. Objectives Explore changes in the last 70-100 years observed in climate variables that are relevant for agricultural production Establish the basis for one of the methods used in our project to create climate change scenarios: project changes observed in the last 70-100 years to the next 10-20 years using a weather generator (G. Magrin’s presentation)

  3. Remaining Question: Were changes uniform throughout the entire period? Time Methods Linear regression of mean trimester rainfall and temperatures for the entire available period (1930 – 2000) Stat significance using parametric and non-parametric (Kendall) tests Plot slopes using a contouring and surface mapping program (Surfer) to study spatial distribution of changes Expected Result Annual mean changes of the trimester means for Rainfall, T Max, T Min in the entire period (1930 - 2000)

  4. Methods (2) Compare rainfall and temperature means for different periods: 10-year periods: 1930-40, 1940-50, …, 1990-2000 20-year periods: 1930-50, 1940-60, …, 1980-2000 30-year periods: 1930-1960 vs 1970-2000

  5. RESULTS Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year) Linear regression Analysis

  6. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  7. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  8. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  9. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  10. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  11. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  12. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  13. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  14. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  15. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  16. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  17. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  18. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year) Linear regression Analysis Significant Slopes (P<0.10)

  19. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  20. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  21. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  22. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  23. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  24. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  25. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  26. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  27. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  28. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  29. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  30. Changes in Rainfall (mm Trimester / year)

  31. Summary by Trimester

  32. Fall

  33. Winter

  34. Spring

  35. Summer

  36. Comparing two Periods: 1930-1960 vs 1970-2000

  37. Changes in Temperatures Mean monthly T Max Mean monthly T Min Regression Analysis

  38. T Min T Min MJJ JFM T Max T Max JJA JFM

  39. Comparing two Periods: 1930-1960 vs 1970-2000

  40. T Max: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000 (Summer 1931-1960)

  41. T Max: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000 (Summer 1970-2000)

  42. T Min: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000 (Winter 1931-1960)

  43. T Min: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000 (Winter 1970-2000)

  44. T Min: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000 (Summer 1931-1960)

  45. T Min: 1931-1960 vs 1970-2000 (Summer 1970-2000)

  46. Relevance for Agricultural Production: Frost Regime

  47. UY = Estanzuela AR = Pergamino

  48. Changes in frost regime estimated with regressions (1930-2000)

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