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Update of Monthly Tourism Indicators 24 March 2010

Update of Monthly Tourism Indicators 24 March 2010. Reflections on 2009.

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Update of Monthly Tourism Indicators 24 March 2010

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  1. Update of Monthly Tourism Indicators 24 March 2010

  2. Reflections on 2009 • Thanks to better-than-anticipated year-end data, we now estimate that visitor arrivals contracted by 5.2% in 2009, as against our previous estimate of -5.6%, but this was still worse than our January 2009 forecast of -4.6%. • The upward revision reflects widespread improvements, particularly in Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East. • Although the downturn was truly global, strong evidence of regional variations was apparent. • Reflecting a broader macroeconomic trend, emerging markets typically benefited from earlier and more vigorous rebounds.

  3. Reflections on 2009 cont • The clear exception was Central & Eastern Europe, where the collapse in business activity led to a very severe drop in visitor arrivals. • 2009 was also notable for the dramatic retrenchment of tourists as average spending fell sharply. • This may have been linked to a wider trend of consumer deleveraging in mature economies, as the global economic crisis sapped confidence and sparked a sharp deterioration in labour market conditions.

  4. Outlook for 2010 • IATA data shows that airline passenger traffic growth has continued to rebound strongly, no doubt on the back of significant base effects. Volumes were up 6.4% in January compared to a year ago. • Looking ahead, our forecast is for overnight visitor arrival growth of 2.5% in 2010, with the strongest gains concentrated in emerging markets. However, this would still leave arrivals down on 2008 levels. • Moreover, spending is unlikely to gain real traction, with the scars of the global recession still painfully visible. Real visitor export growth is projected at less than 1%, constrained by continued weakness in mature economies. In short, the recovery will be fairly subdued.

  5. Downturn not as bad as previously estimated…

  6. …but still worse than forecast in January 2009…

  7. …and arrivals trends mask a deeper retrenchment in spending

  8. Significant regional variations

  9. Airline passenger traffic growth continues to rebound strongly…

  10. …driven principally by improvements in emerging markets

  11. All countries have now released 2009 results

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