aviation security impact assessment working group asia-wg report to asac

1. Aviation Security Impact Assessment Working Group(ASIA-WG)Report to ASAC January 11, 2006 (R2)

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3. 3 ASIA-WG Accomplishments Full Working Group membership met October 2005 Elected Asst Administrator Randy Null as Co-chair for Government Sector Sustained Ron Robinson (Boeing) as Co-chair for Industry Sector Held monthly face-to-face meetings with USCAP and RMAP-TWG�s Baseline Application Output Progress and Plan Reviews Problem and Issue resolution Oversight and detail path forward plan direction Held monthly Co-chair dialogue and coordination discussions

4. 4 US Commercial Aviation Partnership (USCAP) Technical Working Group Progress Model Baseline, Operational and Economic Outputs Reset to FY 2004 Results Model has reached operational readiness Macro, dynamic developmental and veracity testing complete TSA to determine Future Application Needs per Charter Anticipated Air Cargo Security Screening Rule Change Initial results two months following published rule change Final results one month later USCAP Econometric Model selected as finalist for 2006 Franz Edelman Competition Award Final six of twenty-two entrants Highest recognition for Operational Research excellence in management sciences and innovation International annual competition of the Institute for Operational Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

5. 5 Risk Management Analysis Process (RMAP) Technical Working Group Progress Initial Risk Management Tool (Evolution to Revolution) Based on best practice CAST spreadsheet and existing LANL-LED capability Enhanced LANL-LED functionality for full Attacker/Defender Uncertainty Fuzzy Logic Spanning Sets with limited Advanced Hierarchal Processing Planning to Event Monte Carlo gaming Manual capability Gated progress from Evolution to Revolution Revolution extends Evolution best practices Automated interactive approach (Attacker, Defender, Detection, Interdiction) Advanced Gaming strategies including Time Effects and Resource Variability Robust Monte Carlo simulation and uncertainty modeling Robust AHP primary logic Evolution target May 2006 Revolution target November 2006 Initial Stepped Plan, changed to Revolution Only Revised Revolution Development Path Forward Plan Reassign resources and develop path forward technical plan Initial Revolution target July 2006 Refined Revolution capability by year end

6. 6 Back-Up Material

7. 7 Relative Economic Impact of Security Changes --- 20 Year Horizon --- What the model is: Macro operational and economic relationships of key elements of U.S. Commercial Aviation � 20 year time scale An �order of magnitude� dynamic tool to estimate impacts resulting from aviation security initiatives A mechanism to facilitate stakeholder discussions and analyses on operational and economic impacts of security initiatives � to define areas of consensus and disagreement What the model is not: A security/regulation decision making tool A detail cost estimating tool

8. 8 USCAP Econometric Model�The Pachinko Machine� Excel Model 79.2 Megabytes of Files 13 Linked Workbooks 191 Worksheets 15,676 Lines of Data One Scenario Recalculation Produces 1.5M Values Run Time up to 3 minutes Iterative Options (Revenue) can take up to 90 Min. �Pachinko Machine� = Progressive Airline Computational Heuristic Interactive Numeric Kinetic Output Machine

9. 9 Requested USCAP Analyses Summary --- 20 Year Horizon ---

11. 11 Chart reflect revisions of Sept 29, 2005. Chart reflect revisions of Sept 29, 2005.

12. 12 Dynamic Risk Management  ASIA � WG Role The RMAP and USCAP team�s study boundaries are depicted in the right side of the chart. RMAP is an assessment of the various countermeasures relative ability to protect the aviation system.They describe what type of countermeasure is to be installed, its threat deterrent capabilities; is it an improved technology for an existing threat, a productivity improvement or does it target a new threat or risk? USCAP taking the RMAP data and the best understanding of the current US commercial aviation airport security processes (passenger and cargo) adds the proposed changes to the US airport system (443 airports). The relative impact of these changes in terms of employees, equipment, real estate are determined. In addition, because these changes have direct effect on the passengers willingness and ability to travel (or ship) the consequential impact on entire commercial aviation system is captured.The RMAP and USCAP team�s study boundaries are depicted in the right side of the chart. RMAP is an assessment of the various countermeasures relative ability to protect the aviation system.They describe what type of countermeasure is to be installed, its threat deterrent capabilities; is it an improved technology for an existing threat, a productivity improvement or does it target a new threat or risk? USCAP taking the RMAP data and the best understanding of the current US commercial aviation airport security processes (passenger and cargo) adds the proposed changes to the US airport system (443 airports). The relative impact of these changes in terms of employees, equipment, real estate are determined. In addition, because these changes have direct effect on the passengers willingness and ability to travel (or ship) the consequential impact on entire commercial aviation system is captured.

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