Climate Trends and Wheat Straw Supplies

1. Climate Trends and Wheat Straw Supplies Dave Sauchyn, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina North American Mushroom Conference, Vancouver, 23 June 2013

2. What is climate change? • Climate: from klima (ancient Greek) meaning inclination: • a tendency, characteristic likelihood • climate is the statistics of weather • “weather is what we get, climate is what we expect” Climate change: a statistically significant variation in the mean climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (decades or longer).

3. Source: NASA <data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3>

4. April 2013 was the 339th consecutive month (more than 28 years) with a global temperature above the 20th century average. Every month has been warmer than average since May, 1985.

5. Question 1 A recent study reviewed 13,950 scientific articles on the topic of climate change. How many of these articles concluded that there was no human caused global warming? 6950 209 24 3210

7. Question 2 Anthropogenic (human caused) global warming is a relatively recent scientific discovery True False

8. Joseph Fourier (1768 –1830) – 1824 Svante August Arrhenius (1859 –1927) - 1896 Guy Stewart Callendar (1898 – 1964) - 1938

10. Question 3 The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere currently is 300 ppm 330 ppm 375 ppm 400 ppm

11. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Source: NASA <climate.nasa.gov/evidence>

12. The level of the most important heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, has passed a long-feared milestone, scientists reported Friday, reaching a concentration not seen on the Earth for millions of years. Scientific monitors reported that the gas had reached an average daily level that surpassed 400 parts per million – just an odometer moment in one sense, but also a sobering reminder that decades of efforts to bring human-produced emissions under control are faltering.

13. data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

14. Average Winter Temperatures (° C), Edmonton, 1881-2010 1969: - 20° C

15. David Sauchyn - 6° F = - 21° C

16. Thanks to: Lawrence Zimmermann, Highline Mushrooms (Ontario) Burton Loveday, Loveday Mushrooms (Manitoba) Mike Manion, All Seasons Mushrooms (Alberta & BC) Don Needham, Hy-Tech Compost (U.S.)

17. Planting intentions for 2013 in M acres (Statistics Canada)

18. Global Crop Production http://storymaps.esri.com/stories/feedingtheworld/

19. Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions in Canada Qian et al. 2010

20. GSS: growing season start GSE: growing season end Qian et al. 2010 EGDD: effective growing degree-days computed by applying a day-length factor to GDD

21. Percentage of stations showing a significant positive trend (++) or a significant negative trend (--) EGDD: effective growing degree-days computed by applying a day-length factor to GDD

22. Observed Long-Term Trends for Agroclimatic Conditions in Canada We find a significant increasing trend in the length of the growing season and in the associated available heat. The winter temperature is less damaging and the frost-free periods are longer. We also find trends in precipitation-related indices that indicate more availability of water, though the trend in the main agriculture region is less significant. QIAN et al. 2010

23. Interannual Variation in Moisture www.unesco.org CMI is a measure of variability in the ratio of plant water demand to precipitation. It is an indicator of highly variable climates potentially vulnerable to periodic water stress.

24. Inter-Annual Moisture Variability, North America

25. From: Sokhansanj et al. 2006. Production and distribution of cereal straw on the Canadian prairies.

26. Question 4 Have you ever experienced a shortage of wheat straw due poor growing conditions, too little or too rain, in a wheat producing area? Yes No

27. Annual Crop Yields (bu/ac), RM of Biggar, 1938-2010 Source: www.agriculture.gov.sk.ca/rmyields Precipitation deficit, Saskatoon

29. October 2010 817 Natural Disasters

30. 1. Drought: Prairie provinces, 19803. Drought: Prairie provinces and Central and Southern ON, Jul 5-11 19884. Drought: Prairie provinces, 19795. Drought: Prairie provinces, 1984 2. Freezing rain: Ontario to New Brunswick, Jan 6-10 1998 * Drought, Prairies, 2001-02, $.58 B

31. 9. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1931-1938 10. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1989 12. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1961 14. Drought: Western Canada, 1985 16. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1977 17. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1990 18. Drought: Prairie Provinces, 1992 11. Hailstorm: Calgary AB, Sept 7 1991 13. Flood: Assiniboine, Red and Winnipeg Rivers MB, May 1997 15. Tornado: Edmonton AB, Jul 31 1987

35. Mean annual flow (m3/s) North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, 1063-2006 Sauchyn et al. 2011 departures from the 1912-2007 mean

36. Cycles in the tree rings

37. El Niño remote impacts: Teleconnections La Niña teleconnections have the opposite effect Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP

40. Munich Reinsurance (2012) Severe weather in North America

41. "Best Management Practices: For the Agricultural Climate of Tomorrow” Vegreville, AB, March 26, 2009

45. THANKS! aaog.blogspot.ca