What is the next big thing Going to be?

1. Using “half-life” theory to guess What is the next big thing Going to be? Dr. Ron Fulbright Chair, Department of Informatics University of South Carolina Upstate rfulbright@uscupstate.edu

2. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • Has nothing to do with radioactive decay • Not a scientific theory • It is an interesting way to get students to see themselves in context of history and to get them thinking and talking about technological lifecycles • It does promote lively classroom discussion. • Try it in any course.

3. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • In class one day I just blurted out “I lived half of my life without a cellphone but you have always had one.” • That got me thinking. I’m sure professors have been saying that for decades but what they had lived without would not be the same.

4. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • My great-grandparents went ½ of their lives without electricity.

5. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • My grandparents went ½ of their lives without a telephone.

6. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • My parents went ½ of their lives without a television.

7. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • People retiring now went ½ of their life without a computer.

8. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • If I live until I am in my 80s, I will have lived ½ of my life without Google, Wikipedia, Facebook, cell phones, smart phones, email, and texting. • How did I manage to survive without all of these “must-have” technologies?

9. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • What will the current college-age generation do without for ½ of their lives that will one day seem absolutely necessary? • Whatever it is this will be the “next big thing.”

10. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • The next big thing won’t be any of these (we already have these) • Google • Wikipedia • YouTube • Ebay • Facebook/MySpace • Cell phone • Instant messaging • Email

11. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • Life expectancy in the USA is about 79 years according to the World Bank. • This year’s college sophomores are about 20 years old so were born about 1995. If they live 80 years, their lifetime will span 1995-2075 or so. • Their “half-way point” is about 2035. • That is only 20 years away from now.

12. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory • Every technology goes through a lifecycle from basic discovery, through research and development, production, and adoption to become a mainstream product. Then all technologies follow a decline ultimately being replaced by the next “big thing.”

13. Fulbright’s Half-Life Theory

14. Rate of Technology Adoption

15. The Next Big Thing • It takes at least 20 years for a technology to go from the research lab to wildly successful mainstream product. • So the next big thing for our college students is currently in research labs.

16. The Next Big Thing • Personalized medicine and healthcare services delivery- In 20 years, we may hardly ever physically go to a doctor’s office and we will receive medication and treatments personally designed for us and our ailment. Our body’s condition will be continuously monitored and analyzed. Cancers will be detected before tumors.

17. The Next Big Thing • Telepresence, holograms, VR glasses- concert and sporting events, like the World Cup, with virtual attendance of 1 billion or more per event by virtue of immersive virtual reality

18. The Next Big Thing • 3D printing- primitive currently, think Star Trek-like replicators

19. The Next Big Thing • Cognitive augmentation- IBM Watson style of natural language interface, deep reasoning, and learning applied to any and every kind of human cognitive activity

20. The Next Big Thing • Flexible electronics- credit card sized smart phones expandable to full-sized desktop computer-sized devices or anywhere in between

21. The Next Big Thing • “Doclets”-paper-sized displays/tablets you can place across your desk to handle multiple documents (not just one computer screen

22. The Next Big Thing • UAVs- pervasive use of unmanned aerial vehicles for monitoring, sensing, police, delivery, etc.

23. The Next Big Thing • Quantum computing- computers solving currently intractable problems, 1,000,000 times faster, new kinds of Big Data analysis

24. The Next Big Thing • Automated vehicles- driverless vehicles, freight, public transportation, new age “cruise control” for personal vehicles

25. The Next Big Thing • Digital friends- (e.g. the movie Her), people having relationships with artificial entities possessing rich and varied personalities

26. The Next Big Thing • New energy- locally-owned modular energy units

27. The Next Big Thing • Nanotechnology- affecting nearly every area of technology. Smart surfaces, intelligent coatings, drug delivery, molecular-up construction (“4D printing”)

28. The Next Big Thing • Device-less communication- just talk, ambient computing technology delivers the message –no devices needed

29. The Next Big Thing • Device-less communication- just talk, ambient computing technology delivers the message –no devices needed

30. Using “half-life” theory to guess What is the next big thing Going to be? Dr. Ron Fulbright Chair, Department of Informatics University of South Carolina Upstate rfulbright@uscupstate.edu