1 / 36

Technology Forecasting

Technology Forecasting. Data Examples provided by Technology Futures, Inc. Austin, TX by permission. Five key impacts on Technology Forecasting. Technical Social Environmental Legal Political. Types of Forecasts. Surveillance Normative (Goal Oriented) Expert Opinion

avidan
Download Presentation

Technology Forecasting

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Technology Forecasting Data Examples provided by Technology Futures, Inc. Austin, TX by permission

  2. Five key impacts on Technology Forecasting • Technical • Social • Environmental • Legal • Political

  3. Types of Forecasts • Surveillance • Normative (Goal Oriented) • Expert Opinion • Integrative (Scenarios) • Projective

  4. Surveillance • READ EVERYTHING!!!!! • The Economist • Wired • Nov 2003: Smart Bandages, Superglue for sutures, Growth Hormones, Open source computing for medicine, Modafinil for insomnia, Heart tissue regeneration • Business 2.0 • Historians • Groups exist that do this professionally • SRI • DATACOM • Technology Futures, Inc.

  5. Expert Opinion • Seeking definition of the knowable future • Single Expert • Committee • Surveys • Groups • Delphi • Structured Interviews

  6. Nominal Group Technique • Outline of goals and methods by moderator • Silent, independent generation of ideas • Silent, written presentation of ideas • Discussion of ideas • Silent independent voting

  7. Using Expert Opinion More Effectively • Surveys-Traditional Sampling • effective only if the general population knows the subject • Groups-Focus, brainstorming, nominal group technique • Delphi • effective if it is a new technology known only by a few experts

  8. Implications Wheel • Potential topics (select one-well defined • innovation, trend, decision • Write a concise statement (hub) • Areas of direct, immediate impact (1st ring) • Impacts of direct impacts (2nd ring) • Higher order impacts (3rd and 4th ring)

  9. General Rules of Thumb • If a technology achieves worldwide standardization, it will tend to see explosive growth. • Fax Machines • Standardization can be through standards bodies (CCITT, IEEE, etc.) or defacto industry standard (Windows and Intel).

  10. Trend Analysis • Looking for the roots of change • Trend Extrapolation • What happens if this trend keeps going? • Constant percentage rate of improvement • Growth models and performance envelopes • Precursor Developments • Has this happened before?

  11. Accuracy is More Critical Than Precision

  12. Will These Targets Match the Competition?

  13. The Real Competitive Targets

  14. The Compound Interest Approach to Competitive Performance

  15. Trend of Costs for Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM Chips)

  16. U.S. Farm Technology Improvements

  17. Effective Costs of Cellular Telephone Service in Current Dollars

  18. Bell System Employee Productivity

  19. Bell System Employee Productivity

  20. Constant Percentage Rate of Improvement • Most new technologies fit this trend pattern • Rates will remain the same if the basic assumptions are unchanged: • The improvement is technically possible • The product demand/need continues • Basic approach remains the same • Subsidies may increase short term rates • Laws and regulations may decrease short term rates

  21. Growth Models and Performance Envelopes • A frequently observed pattern for technologies which have natural limits • ex. how many eggs can a chicken physically lay each day? • therefore, what is the maximum possible egg production rate for a Tyson chicken farm?

  22. Growth Model Forecast of Egg Production Model

  23. Average Cost of Residential Electric Service in 1967 Dollars

  24. Airline Development-1

  25. Airline Development

  26. Airliner Development -2

  27. Airliner Development-3

  28. Airliner Development-4

  29. Airliner Development-5

  30. Natural Limits and Constraints

  31. Setting Competitive Targets

  32. Precursor Patterns and Trends

  33. Random Access Memory Historical Development

  34. Annual Sales of Consumer Electronics (sales in $1,000s)

  35. How Can You Judge a Forecast Before the Fact? • Are assumptions specified? • Is quantitative evidence included? • Does it follow a path of logic? • Is the projected rate of improvement comparable to prior rates? • If the forecast breaks from the past are substantial reasons offered? • Does it provide a basis for rational discussion?

  36. Multiple trends in life expectancy

More Related