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Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsildulko, Youhua Tang, Geoff DiMego NOAA/NCEP

Recent Upgrades of the NOAA WRF-CMAQ Air Quality Forecast System 14 February 2007. Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsildulko, Youhua Tang, Geoff DiMego NOAA/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center Rohit Mathur, Hsin-Mu Lin, Daiwen Kang, Shocai Yu, George Pouliot

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Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsildulko, Youhua Tang, Geoff DiMego NOAA/NCEP

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  1. Recent Upgrades of the NOAA WRF-CMAQ Air Quality Forecast System 14 February 2007 Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsildulko, Youhua Tang, Geoff DiMego NOAA/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center Rohit Mathur, Hsin-Mu Lin, Daiwen Kang, Shocai Yu, George Pouliot U.S. EPA/ORD/ASMD and NOAA/OAR/ARL Paula Davidson NOAA/NWS/OST

  2. 2006 Developments • WRF Transition • Improved vertical coupling • Continued lateral boundary condition tests • CMAQ Improvements • Optimized Advection scheme • Emissions upgraded for 2006 • AQF system retrospective & Real-time testing • July 2005 with experimental CONUS configuration • Real-time Verification • Spatial map comparisons to observations (03 & PBL hgt) • Inclusion of AIRNOW PM 2.5 observations • Improved Analyses & Visualizations • Focus group, TEXAQS06 projects

  3. NAM-WRF Implementation • Major Components of Upgrade Package for NAM • Replace Eta Model with WRF version of NMM(Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) • WRF Common Modeling Infrastructure • Non-hydrostatic dynamics • Use of hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinate with top at 2 mb • Refined advection, diffusion, numerics and physics • Replace Eta 3D-Var analysis with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis • Unified (regional + global) 3D-Variational analysis adapted to WRF • Begin use of background errors based on WRF-NMM to 2 mb • Use of new variable for moisture analysis • Use of tendency in constraint terms • Use of dynamically retuned observational errors

  4. Forecast Domains (2006) 259 grid cells CONUS “5x” Domain 2. Experimental WRF-CMAQ-ozone 3. Developmental WRF-CMAQ- aerosol 1. Operational East “3x” Domain 268 grid cells

  5. 2006 SystemsWRF-CMAQ 48 h forecasts

  6. Summer 2006 PerformanceOverall biases Oper. 3X Exp CONUS over 3X http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq/fvs/web-test1/html/regular.html Courtesy M. Tsidulko Temp interpolation Bug fixed (5X) Isoprene Fixed (5X) NAMY

  7. California AQ Forecastsunder-prediction http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq/fvs/web-test1/html/airnow.html

  8. Isoprene Correction improved forecast Max.-8hr O3: 7/19/06 Loose Old Tight Isoprene Fix Tight Improvements but further retrospective experiments needed

  9. Summer 2006 Performance1h errors after Isoprene/NAM-Y corrections Oper. 3X Exp CONUS 1h RMSE by Forecast Hour 1 h Max Bias by day • Avg RMSE reduced by 2-4 ppb in experimental CONUS system • CONUS biases also improved over operational E. U.S. system

  10. Summer 2006 PerformanceSub region 1h avg O3 RMSE NE US: 3X, 5X SE US: 3X, 5X Mid-West : 3X, 5X Low. Miss: 3X, 5X • Avg RMSE reduced by 2-4 ppb in experimental CONUS (5X) system • Little improvement in Mid-West, Miss. Valley

  11. Retrospective Run Case Study 1 h Max O3 Biases c August 2, 2006 August 4, 2006 August 3, 2006 • Best performance over the Northeast and Midwest. • High bias in Southeast. Courtesy: Pius Lee & Shocai Yu

  12. Developmental Case Study: Aerosols Daily Biases • Best performance over the Northeast • Low Bias in Southeast U.S. • Courtesy: P. Lee, D. Kang, S. Yu

  13. PBL Height Verification WRF/NMM (green) and estimated with RAOBS (RED) NAMY NAMY M. Tsidulko Western U.S. Eastern U.S.

  14. Isoprene Correction improved Experimental Forecast Max.-8hr O3: 7/19/06 Loose Old Tight Isoprene Fix Tight Improvements but further retrospective experiments needed Rohit Mathur

  15. Mid-Atlantic Ozonesondes August 2, 2006 at 17:00 UTC NAM-Y CMAQ vs Obs With CMAQ Isoprene Corrections sgma Beltsville, MD Wallops, VA

  16. Western Mountain Ozonesondes August 4, 2006 at 20:00 UTC NAM-Y CMAQ vs Obs With CMAQ Isoprene Corrections sgma Boulder, CO Socorro, NM

  17. California Ozonesondes August 4, 2006 at 20:00 UTC NAM vs Obs With CMAQ Isoprene Corrections Default RAQMS LBC sgma Table Mtn,CA Holtville, CA

  18. Trinidad Head, California August 2, 2006 August 4, 2006 CMAQ static LBC CMAQ RAQMS LBC

  19. Summary • Experimental O3 testing (5X) revealed significant errors in WRF-Post, biogenic emissions, PREMAQ code and emission files • Biogenic errors had largest impact:  when correctly included, produced genl incr. in surface ozone • Corrections to NAM improved performance in all AQF products: • operational, experimental, and developmental testing • NAM-Y-CMAQ: More localized but strong impacts • Warmer, well mixed PBL esp. during stable conditions • Positive impact on CMAQ performance except continued under-prediction over California & South Texas • Further retrospective testing being conducted with WRF-Launcher and CMAQ

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