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Lance F. Bosart, Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., and Jason M. Cordeira

Here a TC, There a TC, Everywhere a TC: The "Spin" on the Active Part of the North Atlantic 2008 TC Season. Lance F. Bosart, Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., and Jason M. Cordeira Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at Albany SUNY, Albany, NY.

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Lance F. Bosart, Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., and Jason M. Cordeira

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  1. Here a TC, There a TC, Everywhere a TC: The "Spin" on the Active Part of the North Atlantic 2008 TC Season Lance F. Bosart, Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., and Jason M. Cordeira Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at AlbanySUNY, Albany, NY Tenth Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York6 November 2008

  2. MOTIVATION: The many United States tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls during the 2008 North Atlantic TC season provided a serendipitous opportunity to study: • Multiple TC interactions. • A potpourri of TC-related mesoscale precipitation features.

  3. OUTLINE: • Overview of multiple TC interactions: • Gustav • Hanna • Ike • Josephine • North Atlantic non-developer • Unnamed subtropical storm (ST) • Overview of TC-related mesoscale precipitation features: • Hanna and Unnamed ST • A "pseudo" predecessor rain event (PRE) • A coastal front • Ike • A "pre PRE" (TC Lowell and Bay of Campeche null TC) • A main event PRE

  4. Interacting TCs

  5. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  6. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  7. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  8. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  9. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Gustav Ridge Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  10. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Gustav Ridge Foldover Ridge Hanna Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  11. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Cutoff Ridge Gustav/Hanna Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  12. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Cutoff Ridge Gustav/Hanna Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  13. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Cutoff Ridge Gustav/Hanna Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  14. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Gustav/Hanna Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  15. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Gustav/Hanna Ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  16. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  17. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell PV streamers

  18. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) W PV streamers W=Ike upper-level ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell

  19. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) W PV streamers W=Ike upper-level ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell

  20. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) W PV streamers W=Ike upper-level ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell

  21. DT  (K), wind (kt), 925–850 hPa  (104 s1) W1 W2 PV streamers W=Ike upper-level ridge Gustav Hanna IkeJosephineLowell

  22. Overview of Predecessor Rain Events (PREs) Cote (2007)

  23. Predecessor Rain Events (PREs) • Coherent area of rain displaced poleward of tropical cyclone (TC) • Moisture transport from TC toward PRE • Max rainfall rates typically ≥ 100 mm (24 h)1 • Time lag between PRE and TC passage ~36 h Event Duration ~12 h Bosart and Carr (1978) conceptual model of antecedent rainfall for Tropical Cyclone Agnes (1972) ~1000 km Detailed study of PREs in Cote (2007)

  24. PRE TRACK-RELATIVE POSITIONS PRE Locations Relative to TC Track 1998–2006 26 12 9 47 PREs associated with 21 TCs were identified (~2 PREs per TC) ~1/3 of all U.S. landfalling TCs produced at least one PRE Five cases where TC did not make U.S. landfall Cote (2007)

  25. COMPOSITES: Time = 0 h Trough axis Ridge axis θe-Ridge axis 700 hPa h (dam) and upward vertical motion (μb s-1) 925 hPa h (dam), θe (K), and 200 hPa wind speed (m s-1) Center of composite TC Centroid of 1st composite PRE Cote (2007)

  26. Hanna: 28 Aug - 7 Sep 2008 Coastal Front and "Pseudo-PRE" in Hanna

  27. SLP (hPa), 1000-500 hPa thickness (dam), and 250 hPa isotachs (kt) http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/rmctc/DTmaps/animSelect.php

  28. GFS24 VT12Z 6 Sep08 GFS30 VT18Z 6 Sep08 SLP (hPa), 1000-500 hPa thickness (dam), 2-m temperatures (°C), and 6-h forecast rainfall (inches)

  29. PW (shaded; mm), 250 hPa heights (black contours, dam), 700 hPa winds (kt), and 925-850 hPa mean relative vorticity (magenta contours, every 0.5 x 10-4 s-1) PW (mm): 1800 UTC 5 September 2008 Base Reflectivity (dBZ): 0900 UTC 6 September 2008

  30. 1830 UTC 5 Sep 2008 0230 UTC 6 Sep 2008 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/GFS_ARCHIVE/

  31. 0830 UTC 6 Sep 2008 1730 UTC 6 Sep 2008 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/GFS_ARCHIVE/

  32. 2030 UTC 6 Sep 2008 2330 UTC 6 Sep 2008 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/GFS_ARCHIVE/

  33. Midwest PRE with TC Ike: 11-14 September 2008

  34. QPE (inches) for 24-h periods ending 1200 UTC 11 (left) and 12 (right) September 2008 Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/npvu/archive/rfc.shtml

  35. QPE (inches) for 24-h periods ending 1200 UTC 13 (left) and 14 (right) September 2008 Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/npvu/archive/rfc.shtml

  36. PW (shaded; mm), 250 hPa heights (black contours, dam), 700 hPa winds (kt), and 925-850 hPa mean relative vorticity (magenta contours, every 0.5 x 10-4 s-1) 1200 UTC 6 September 2008 0000 UTC 8 September 2008 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/GFS_ARCHIVE/

  37. PW (shaded; mm; from 700 hPa (left) and from surface (right)), 250 hPa heights(black contours, dam), 700 hPa winds (kt), and 925-850 hPa mean relative vorticity(magenta contours, every 0.5 x 10-4 s-1) 1200 UTC 11 September 2008 1200 UTC 11 September 2008 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/GFS_ARCHIVE/

  38. Potential temperature (shaded, K) and winds (kt) on the dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface), and 925-850 hPa layer-mean relative vorticity (black contours every 0.5 x 10-4 s-1) 1200 UTC 6 September 2008 0000 UTC 8 September 2008 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/GFS_ARCHIVE/

  39. 1202 UTC 11 September 2008 1803 UTC 11 September 2008 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/RADSFC/radar.html

  40. 0303 UTC 12 September 2008 1501 UTC 12 September 2008 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/RADSFC/radar.html

  41. 0002 UTC 13 September 2008 0600 UTC 13 September 2008 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/RADSFC/radar.html

  42. 1201 UTC 13 September 2008 1804 UTC 13 September 2008 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/RADSFC/radar.html

  43. Source: http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

  44. Source: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/

  45. Source: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/

  46. 2145 UTC 12 Sep'08 1445 UTC 13 Sep'08 2045 UTC 13 Sep'08 Source: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/

  47. Ike tropical moisture arrives by 06 UTC PRE ORD L L Ike Ike ORD rainfall in 6-h periods: 00–06 UTC 13  5.1 mm 06–12 UTC 13  75.4 mm 12–18 UTC 13  72.6 mm 18–00 UTC 13  19.8 mm 00Z/13 12Z/13 WSR-88D base reflectivity mosaic PRE PRE L L Ike Ike Source: NCAR case-selection archive 06Z/13 18Z/13

  48. ORD Ike Ike ORD rainfall in 6-h periods: 00–06 UTC 14  1.3 mm 06–12 UTC 14  5.6 mm 12–18 UTC 14  25.7 mm 18–00 UTC 14  5.3 mm 06Z/14 15Z/14 Ike Ike 12Z/14 18Z/14

  49. 700 hPa h (dam), 700 hPa wind (m s1) 700 hPa ascent (103 hPa s1) 900–400 hPa relative humidity (%) 925 hPa h (dam), 925 hPa wind (m s1) 925 hPa e(K) 200 hPa wind speed (m s1) PRE H H Ike Ike 1200 UTC 13 September 2008

  50. 0000 UTC 13 September 2008 1200 UTC 13 September 2008 PRE L L Ike 925 hPa h (dam) 925 hPa e(K) 200 hPa wind speed (m s1) 56 mm Ike 56 mm 250 hPa h (dam), 700 hPa  (105 s1) precipitable water (mm), 850–500 hPa mean wind (m s1)

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