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a greener faith in a black swan world

a greener faith in a black swan world . David W. Orr Society of Entrepreneurs and Ecology April 23, 2014. s ystems dynamics. non-linearity . . . 2 + 2 = 22 leads & lags . . . skate to where the puck will be leverage points and tipping points i.e. irrevocable & irreversible

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a greener faith in a black swan world

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  1. a greener faith in a black swan world David W. Orr Society of Entrepreneurs and Ecology April 23, 2014

  2. systems dynamics • non-linearity . . . 2 + 2 = 22 • leads & lags . . . skate to where the puck will be • leverage points and • tipping points i.e. irrevocable & irreversible • surprise, synergy, & creativity

  3. 700 CO2 in 2100 (w/BAU) CO2 in 2050 (with business as usual) 600 500 400 CO2 PPMV CO2 now 300 10 Degrees Celsius 200 0 100 –10 The last 160,000 years and the next 100 years 2-4°C 2061 IEA/RCS Temperature difference from now °C CO2concentration (ppmv) 160 120 80 40 Now Time (thousands of years)

  4. The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge. Longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste, far longer than the age of human civilization so far. Each ton of coal that we burn leaves CO2 gas in the atmosphere. The CO2 coming from a quarter of that ton will still be affecting the climate one thousand years from now. David Archer, 2009

  5. ecological design revolution . . . • sustainable agriculture & forestry • architecture & greenbuilding • whole systems engineering • urban design/new urbanism • biomimicry & materials science • landscape design • ecological engineering • industrial ecology • information technology for quick feedback • least-cost, end-use • systems analysis

  6. smarter solutions . . . don’t cause other problems solve for pattern/security by design technically feasible competitive . . . CO2/$ can be deployed quickly resilient, redundant, repairable

  7. so, what do we do?? buildings as systems

  8. “one of thirty milestone buildings in 20th century,” DOE “most important green building in past 30 years,” AIA panel

  9. first entirely solar powered, zero-discharge building on a U.S. college campus

  10. level 2 cities as systems

  11. The Oberlin Project 2009 Founded 1832 City of ~10,000 28% below poverty 52% free/reduced lunch Photo courtesy of John Petersen

  12. goals . . . • 13 acre development—Green Arts District • USGBC Platinumnd & economic revitalization • Climate neutral—City and College • Clinton Climate Initiative • 20,000 acre greenbelt: local foods 70% • education—1000 students/10 years • College, LCCC, LCVS, & public schools • replicate: National Sustainable Communities Coalition

  13. full spectrum sustainability: parts reinforce the resilience of the whole

  14. economic development food/agriculture SE Quadrant food hub policy business creation

  15. 3MW output solar array $15M public school . . . ~$40M* Lewis Center Greenacres, $50M Apollo theater $9M Allen Arts Museum $11.2M Gateway . . . ~$32M* Green Arts District ~$75M East College St $17M Station Sq& housing ~$20-25M*

  16. Oberlin Project to date . . . • City/College partnership • one of 18 Clinton Climate positive cities • 90%+ carbon free 2013 • $1.1M DOE study on energy policy NE OH • office & staff • community organized in 7 teams • College “Star index” Gold • 3 MW output solar array • $60M expended through 2012 • hotel, conference center 2016

  17. working model of a prosperous, sustainable economy in U.S. rust-belt

  18. level 3 regions as systems

  19. regions as systems . . . • buying/investing power of higher education • focus: cities, food systems, solar energy • import substitution (Jane Jacobs) • can’t solve Detroit’s problems in Detroit! • high multiplier ( 2 + 2 = 22)

  20. 1. we pay for sustainability whether we get it or not. health security environment social stability economy climate justice

  21. 2. optimize whole systems, not parts

  22. 3. there are few accidents, only the working out of the rules of the system

  23. Now is the time for telling new tales, for retelling old dilemmas: how to live in the world andpreserve it; how to sustain tradition and foster invention; how to promote freedom andcultivate order; how to forge identity and value difference; how to appreciate the parts andgrasp the whole. Anne WhistonSpirn, The Language of Landscape, 1998

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