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Kathy Law Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL-UPMC-CNRS

Arctic Ozone Possible Reduction Strategies What can be done given uncertanties in the (Arctic) O 3 budget and climate change?. Kathy Law Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL-UPMC-CNRS. Outline. O 3 radiative forcing - IR altitude sensitivity

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Kathy Law Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL-UPMC-CNRS

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  1. Arctic Ozone Possible Reduction StrategiesWhat can be done given uncertanties in the (Arctic) O3 budget and climate change? Kathy Law Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL-UPMC-CNRS SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  2. Outline O3 radiative forcing - IR altitude sensitivity O3 budget (Arctic & NH) - uncertainties - photochemical lifetime vs transport timescales Which emissions? Regions NOx, CO/VOCs or CH4? Response in a changing climate (O3, CH4) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  3. O3 radiative forcing Max effect on Ts from IR heating between 4 - 22 km Surface ∆O3 less important From Forster & Shine, 1997 SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  4. Uncertainties in O3 RF: Results from IPCC models - GHGs plus strat. O3 (Gauss et al., 2006) Strat. vs trop. model differences (1850 to 2000) T=trop, S=strat. SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  5. Arctic Ozone Budget STE North Pole Flux in Flux out UT Transport Residence Time LT transport Dry Deposition SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  6. Arctic O3 Budget (TOPSE) Emmons et al., 2003 SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  7. Winter: anthrop. Europe (LT), Asia? (UT) Summer: forest fires (Siberia, Alaska) anthrop. (Asia, N. America) Transport Pathways to Arctic SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 AMAP, 2006

  8. Age of Arctic Air Stohl, 2006 SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  9. Lifetime - April - Surface Lifetime - July - Surface Ozone Photochemical Lifetime (days) Lifetime - April - 500hPa Lifetime - July - 500hPa SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 MOZART model results, courtesy Claire Granier (CNRS), NCAR

  10. Northern Hemisphere O3 Budget Brewer-Dobson/STE Local heating from local O3 Transport of heat or mid-lat O3 to Arctic 30N 30N North Pole SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Dry Deposition

  11. Key is UT O3 Budget Brewer-Dobson/STE Local heating from local O3? Transport of heat or mid-lat O3 to Arctic 30N 30N North Pole SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Dry Deposition

  12. Tropospheric O3 - where is the ∆O3? SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  13. Where is there a constant source of ∆O3? Mid-lat anthrop. plumes transported into UT • Lagrangian study using NARE-ACSOE data (Real et al., 2007) • Photochemical trajectory model initialised with obs upwind • Determine O3 change due to chemistry, mixing etc. SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  14. Where is there a constant source of ∆O3? Boreal Forest Fire plumes (ICARTT summer 2004) DC8 – 18 July Falcon – 22/23 July B146 – 20 July CO ↓ : 200 ppbv O3 ↑ : 20 ppbv Lagrangian match analysis (Methven et al.,2006), FF analysis (Real et al., 2007) Intercontinental Transport Of Pollutants SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 - ITOP campaign, July 2004

  15. Lagrangian photochemical model: chemistry + aerosols + dilution (Real et al., 2007) OHP Falcon Mozaic Jungfraujoch NPO3 depends on altitude (PAN decomp. vs H2O) plus mixing & residence time of plumes in UT Chemistry only (inc. aerosols) Chemistry + mixing SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  16. Forest Fire Plume - Trace Gas Correlation Evolution DC8 - 18 July 2004 BAe-146 - 20 July 2004 O3 (ppbv) O3 (ppbv) CO (ppbv) CO (ppbv) Falcon – 22 et 23 July 2004 O3 (ppbv) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 CO (ppbv)

  17. Forest Fire Plume Correlation Evolution - evaluation of global models - MOCAGE (Bousserez et al., 2007) and GEOSCHEM (courtesy Isabelle Bey) 140 DC8 18 July 90 200 Observations DC8 18 July O3 (ppbv) MOCAGE 0 350 0 600 50 CO (ppb) 30 180 100 75 80 GEOS-CHEM DF20 23 July O3 (ppbv) 45 45 60 100 150 0 225 CO (ppb) GEOSCHEM CO (PAN) too low on 18 July O3 too low on 23 July SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 MOCAGE O3 too high on 18 July

  18. Forest Fire Plume Transport to Arctic(ICARTT 2004) 90°N Alert 80°N Barrow SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Stohl, 2006

  19. Ozone Data (Helmig et al, 2007) Summit FF plume transport to the Arctic (Lacresson, Real, Law, 2007) Ny-Alesund surface: high O3 episode in July 2004 Summit @ 3km 2004 Ny-Alesund Broad summer Max in FT 8km 6km 2km Ozone - Ny-Alesund (Rao et al, 2004) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  20. So which regional emissions to reduce? SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 AMAP, 2006

  21. Uncertainties in Regional Emissions Courtesy Claire Granier et al. SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  22. Decadal emissions - up to date info is needed on 1990 to present Courtesy Claire Granier, Cathy Liousse et al. SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  23. Regional O3 changes from reduced emissions (1) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Bernsten et al., 2006

  24. Regional O3 changes from reduced emissions (2) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Dentener et al., 2005

  25. O3 RF from BAU (upper) & reduced emissions (lower) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Dentener et al., 2005

  26. Stohl, 2006 - Anthrop BC particle sources 30 days previously Air spending at least 5 days in Arctic in winter (left) & summer (right) Do the same for O3 precursors with some kind of RF clock related to residence time in the UT SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  27. Stohl, 2006 - BC particle sources 30 days previously Air spending at least 5 days in Arctic in summer - forest fires (left) & anthrop (right) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  28. Which Emissions - CH4, NOx, VOC or CO? 20% emission reductions in CH4, NOx CO & VOCs (West, Fiore, et al 2007) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  29. CH4 emission scenarios (Tg yr-1) - Dentener et al. , 2005 Net difference BAU - MRF ∆CH4ems = 100 Tg (1990 to 2030) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  30. Reduction in Gas CH4 by 15 Tg over 3 years led to 4 ppbv yr-1 decrease @ 66N How to reduce CH4? SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Law & Nisbet, 1996

  31. But is CH4 already going down?… and CO2 going up faster than predicted?? Hansen et al., 2007 SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  32. Stratospheric O3 recovery Eyring et al., 2007 SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  33. Climate Change Possible Impacts on O3 Budget SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  34. Climate change effects on strat. & trop. O3 SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Gauss et al., 2006

  35. Real et al.,2007 Sensitivity of PO3 to Temperature(PAN decomposition) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  36. More local anthropogenic emissions? Gas/oil extraction - CH4, VOCs (alkanes), BC? Smelters (copper) - SOx, NOx, aerosol Ships - NOx, aerosols SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

  37. 2040 Loss of summer sea-ice more O3 (ships), less halogens (not clear), more DMS, etc Holland et al, 2006 Are the models right??!! SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 Granier et al, 2006

  38. Recommendations Reduce CH4 (but need to understand current trends and climate sensitivity) - plus CO2 also of course Take into account planned O3 precursor emission reductions (CLRTAP) & post-Kyoto O3 budget - important where O3 is formed (smoking gun - boreal forest fires?) SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07

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