Valuation of ecosystem services II

1. Valuation of ecosystem servicesII Charit tingsabadh October 2006

2. outline • Nuisance-hazard-risk • Bads • Damage costs • Abatement costs • Valuation issues

3. Nuisance-hazard-risk • Levels of disturbances • Risk analysis format • See next slide

4. Hazard Potential Hazard situation Needs Hazard received Activities Consequences realised Release Exposure Consequence Set conditions for activities Reduce chance or amount of release Contain, avoid or Neutralize hazard Treat effects. Recovery action

5. Bads • Loss of welfare • Cost of welfare loss • Willingness to accept (WTA) • Mitigating behaviour and its costs • Who pays? Polluter or beneficiary • Who has the right to the clean environment-the right to pollute?

6. From Valuesto valuation • Identification of value • Quantification of values • Methods • Direct-stated preference • Indirect-revealed preference

7. valuation • For each type of service (damage), find appropriate valuation methodology • See from examples – new ones available today

8. Air pollution • See paper for general description: • Hernandez

9. Celebrating 100 years of Health Science, Health and Development: Achievements and Challenges in One Hundred Years of PAHO Environmental Protection and Development: Air quality Mauricio Hernández Director, Centro de Investigación en Salud Poblacional. Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Mexico

10. This most excellent canopy, the air…why it appears no other thing to me than a foul and pestilent congregation of vapors. • W. Shakespeare

11. Air quality and development

12. Presentation outline • What have we learned • Current situation in the Americas • Mexico City –Case study - Why is important to do research? • Recommendations for a research agenda in the region • Conclusions

13. Events related to air pollution control • 1930 Meuse Valley, Belgium episode (60 deaths) • 1943 First severe smog hits Los Angeles • 1946 City Ordinance against air pollution is passed in Pittsburgh • 1947 California establishes first state regulations • 1952 The “Great Fog” episode strikes London (4,000 deaths) • 1953 Five-day episode in New York City (200 deaths) • 1963 First US Clean Act passed • 1968 HC & CO exhaust controls • 1970 CAA amendments , EPA is formed • 1972 First Inspection Maintenance Program in the US • 1973 NOx exhaust controls in the US • 1975 Introduction of catalytic converters • 1986 First air monitoring network is installed in Mexico City • 1988 Canadian Environmental Protection Act is passed • 1989 First pollutant inventory is reported for Mexico City • 1990 New CAA Amendments in the US

14. Health effects • Airborne pollutants are associated with: • Premature death • Cancer • Chronic bronchitis • Asthma exacerbation • Chronic cough and other respiratory problems • Changes in respiratory function parameters • Health effects associated with short duration exposures to ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and other gaseous pollutants are reasonably well characterized • The health effects of PM components and the consequences of long-term exposure to PM and other air pollutants are still not well understood.

15. Other Harmful Effects of Air Pollution • Agricultural Crops • produce lower yields • mature more slowly, • suffer tissue damage • Forest and Rangeland Ecosystems • Aquatic Ecosystems • deposition of acidic particulates • Climate Change • Visibility

16. Sweden France Canada United States Venezuela Greece South Africa Kenya Argentina Egypt Italy Ecuador Brazil Nicaragua Colombia Costa Rica Panama Mexico Ghana Honduras Guatemala Chile Nepal Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep China India Indonesia Nigeria Pakistan Global distribution of urban PM10 concentrations Cumulative percentage of urban population 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 100 % 80 % Urban population Annual concentration 0 100 200 300 Population-weight PM10 concentrations g/m3 Adapted from Reference

17. Impact of PM10 (10 g/m3) on child and infant mortality Source: Conceicao, 2001; Saldiva, 1991; gouveia, 2000; Loomis, 1999; Ostro, 1999. Summary GBD Working Group

18. 400 Mexico São Paulo 300 Santiago Maximum concentration de MP10g/m3 200 100 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Concentrations of PM10 (24 hours maximum) in Mexico City, Sao Paulo and Santiago 1995- 1999 The arrow indicates the norms for Brazil, Chile and Mexico ( 150 g/m3)

19. Air pollution in Santiago, Chile Source:Atarxo P. Characterization fisicoquímica del material particulado inorgánico primario CONAMA, Chile. 1998

20. TSP in Lima, Peru Source: DIGESA, Lima Peru.

21. Vehicles in circulation in Lima, Peru Number of vehicles: 780,000 Average life: 18 years Gasoline consumption: 9,000 x 103

22. Trends in vehicles, miles traveled and fuel consumption In the US Source: D Schwela & O Zali Urban traffic pollution WHO, 1999

23. Indoor air pollution in Brazil • A typical pollutant released indoors is 1000 times as effective in causing human exposure as the same release to urban outdoor air

24. Some success stories, the US case Percent reductions over the 1981-1990 time period from mobile sources

25. Percent change comparing new cars to those of 1970 model

26. Some success stories, Mexico CO Percent reductions over the 1981-1990 time period from mobile sources

27. PROAIRE in Mexico

28. PROAIRE in Mexico

29. PROAIRE in Mexico

30. Research Priorities • Health and welfare effects • Exposure assessment • Pollution prevention • Global effects of air pollution

31. Answering the Key Questions • What are the estimated health effects for each region or country? • How can we update our regional surveillance systems? • What are the effects of short-term (less than 24-hour) exposures to PM? Key components? • What are the health effects of long-term exposures PM and Ozone? • What can we learn from between and within country comparisons? • How can we extrapolate findings from one country to another country?

32. Research Priorities • Characterization of personal exposure to pollutants from both indoor and outdoor sources. • A person spend about 90 percent of their time in enclosed environments • Best estimates of exposures and potential health risks • Helps regulatory activities by targeting interventions • Best estimates of population exposures to air pollution • Helps to identify the primary sources of exposures

33. Research Priorities • Economic analyses of air pollution’s effects on public health and the environment are urgently needed. • Costs of air pollution, which can be viewed as benefits when air pollution is reduced. • Large percentage of research on exposure assessment and development of dose-response relationships was conducted in developed countries. Extrapolation of this results to LAC region is not possible.

34. Research Priorities • Different demographics and varying chemical compositions of air pollutants • Extrapolation of dose-response estimates for ranges outside of those observed • Correlation between ambient exposure and personal exposure may not be the same • Environmental and socioeconomic conditions, diet, lifestyle and income, may modify the effects. • The role of selected survivor and competing causes limits inference

35. Economic externalities of air pollution • To compare benefits and costs. • To set priorities. • To get the attention of decision makers and legislators.

36. Answering the Key Questions • What are the relative health benefits of improving air quality? • What is the public’s willingness to pay to avoid the health effects of air pollution? • Are people at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale exposed to higher levels of pollutants? • Best technology transfer and training?

37. Economic savings from reduced mortality if diesel exposure is eliminated in California US Source: State of California. California Environmental Protection Agency ARB Strategic Plan for Research:2001 to 2010

38. Economic savings (in US millions) from reduced health care costs if particulate pollution were reduced. Santiago, Chile Source: Eskeland, G.S. (1994) Report No. 13061-CH, pp. 91-120. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.

39. Research Priorities • Richhouseholds spend a higher proportion of their budgets on gasolinethan do poor households; gasolinevehicles give rise to a number of externalities among them air pollutant emissions • Gasoline engines may affect poor households more than rich households. • What are the appropriate levels for gasoline taxes?

40. Research Priorities • Emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gases: • carbon dioxide • Methane • Chlorofluorocarbons • nitrous oxide. • Climate change will be one of the most challenging and complex environmental problems that future generations will be facing

41. Research Priorities • Concerns about global warming must be taken seriously: • Rapid warming pathway • Greenhouse gases have lifetimes of decades or even centuries • Warming of the oceans occurs over many decades

42. Answering the Key Questions • What will be the effects of global climate change on human health? • What are the possible economic impacts of global climate change in the LAC region?

43. Conclusions • Controlling air pollution is difficult and complex • Progress has been made despite opposing factors • Motor vehicles are doing reasonably well • There is some spirit of cooperation between governments, the public, and industry and the banks (IDB and WB) • Despite some successes, there is still a long way

44. Conclusions • The vision: • that all individuals, especially children and the elderly, can live, work, go to school, and play in a healthful environment. • Promote environmental justice • Environmental justice relates to those communities that are disproportionately impacted by air pollution sources due, primarily, to socioeconomic factors.

45. Conclusions • Air pollution control is viewed as an expensive luxury that diverts resources from more urgent health problems. • We must promote the view that every member of the population has a stake and a responsibility in environmental public health, • Societies most understand that as environments deteriorate, so does the physical and mental health of the people who live in them. Neglecting or retarding interventions will impose a high economic cost to future generations and will jeopardize their well being

46. 1 All ages Child mortality Chronic bronchitis Asthma attacks Children: Acute bronchitis Mortality Chronic morbidity Morbidity Preventable health effects due to a 10% reduction of environmental levels of PM10 and ozone between 2000 and 2020 cases 10,000,000 Mexico City Sao Paulo Santiago 1,000,000 New York 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 Source: Cifuentes et al , 2001

47. Economic Analysis of air pollution Deadly Smog Impacting Communities Across Ontario New data reveals the regional impact of smog in cities throughout the province. Toronto, June 24, 2005 - Alarming new data released today shows smog is taking lives and hurting economies in communities across Ontario. The Ontario Medical Association's (OMA) report, Illness Cost of Air Pollution (ICAP) 2005, shows the negative impact of smog on the health and economy in specific cities across the province. "We hope these numbers will provide the evidence needed for municipal leaders to make the changes necessary to improve the health and economic well-being of Ontario's communities," said Dr. Greg Flynn, President of the OMA. "Smog affects everyone, which is why we need all levels of government to use this new information to push forward with improvements to the quality of air we breathe."

48. response Die Very sick sick unwell Dose

49. Analysis II • We have new health information to share with you, and put in the context of updated demographic, economic and air pollution data, a compelling story to tell. • Unfortunately, the health impacts are much worse than we had initially estimated, and the cost of not taking action to address air pollution is much higher. • According to our Illness Cost of Air Pollution report for 2005 that we are releasing today, approximately 5,800 premature deaths will be related to exposure to air pollution - this year alone. • If the province does not take action to further improve the quality of air in Ontario, the number of premature deaths associated with air pollution is estimated to hit a staggering 10,000 lives by the year 2026. • The loss of lives must be our greatest concern, but the cost to our healthcare system is also very startling. • The combined healthcare and lost productivity costs will reach almost a billion dollars in 2005. And again if nothing is done, that number is expected to reach well over a billion dollars by 2026.

50. Analysis III Using model to analyze the risk and estimate the damage cost