Weathering the Change Action Plan 2

1. Weathering the Change Action Plan 2 ACT Climate Change Council 8 November 2011

2. Overview • How did we get to this point? • The Government’s commitment • Elements of Action Plan 2 • Consultation and processes • Questions

3. How did we get to this point? 2000 • ACT Greenhouse Gas Strategy • Australia’s first institutionalised response to climate change • evidenced weak understanding of data measurement • targets proved to be unachievable 2006 • ACT Weathering the Change • improved understanding of science and measurement • concentration on awareness and demonstration projects • some good results but overall disjointed outcomes

4. A new focus • The Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act 2010 sets out voluntary greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets: - per person emissions peak by 2013 - 40% below 1990 level by 2020 - 80% below 1990 level by 2050 - zero net emissions by 2060 • ACT Government Carbon Neutral framework (draft) • zero net emissions by 2020

5. Action Plan 2 underlying vision The vision • By 2060, the ACT is a sustainable and carbon neutral city that adapts to a changing climate. Measured by • minimising the ACT’s impact on global climate change by achieving the ACT’s legislated GHG reduction targets • ensuring a fair society in a low-carbon economy • strengthening the ACT’s capacity to respond to a changing climate, and • creating a more sustainable future.

6. Business as usual Projected emissions with current measures (includes the national carbon price) 2200 kt CO2-e reduction by 2020 Target trajectory to zero net emissions by 2060

7. The Challenge Source: ACT Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2009

8. Getting there The four key outcomes of Action Plan 2 are: • Reducing emissions in the ACT • Ensuring a fair society • Adapting to climate change • Leading to a sustainable future

9. The modelling • pitt&sherry were commissioned to report on measures that the ACT could adopt to meet our emissions reduction targets • The measures examined are presented as ‘pathways’ i.e. a mix of measures • The analysis focuses on: • the amount of emission reductions (abatement potential) that could be achieved by each measure and • the net cost of achieving those emission reductions

10. Pathways for reducing GHGs Five possible pathways are presented in Action Plan 2 to initiate discussion on the appropriate measures that the ACT could take to meet its GHG targets: • Renewable energy • Buildings, transport, waste and renewable energy • Buildings, transport, waste plus gas generated electricity and offsets as required • Buildings, transport, waste and offsets • Carbon offsets

11. Pathways (contd) Each pathway has different implications for: • reduction in emissions from different sectors such as electricity, gas, transport, waste; • cost-effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions; • time-frames before a significant outcome is achieved; • sources of emissions that remain in 2020 and the ability to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060; and • practicalities of implementation in a small jurisdiction.

12. What is not addressed in the Action Plan • Not prescriptive. The final outcome could be one or none of the proposed Pathways or a combination of them. • Does not recommend any particular pathway. • Does not commit expenditure to any specific initiatives. • All steps (initiatives) along the final Pathway will be subject to usual Cabinet and Budget processes.

13. Pathway 1: Renewable energy • Assumes a steady increase in uptake of renewable energy • Assumes no new energy efficiency measures are adopted, and that the ACT community makes no further adjustments to their behaviour • Remaining emissions (largely from transport fuels) managed by purchase of offsets • Capital investment (for example) • a 1,066MW wind facility • No ACT-based generation

14. Pathway 2: Buildings, transport, waste and renewable energy • Commercial buildings are upgraded and energy- efficient technologies adopted • Co- and tri-generation installed in large buildings • Improve residential heating and phase out electric hot water systems • Reduce transport emissions by shifting to sustainable options and electric vehicles • Assumes continued uptake of renewable energy • No carbon offsets required in 2020 • Capital investment (for example) • - a 30MW energy-from-waste facility • a 650MW wind facility

15. Pathway 3: Buildings, transport, waste, gas-fired electricity generation and offsets • Similar to Pathway 2, but with a shift in source of renewable energy (e.g. wind) to gas • Phased out prior to the 2060 target • Offsets required to meet target • Capital investment (for example) • a 250MW combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) • complemented by a 30 MW energy- from-waste-facility

16. Pathway 4: Buildings, transport, waste and offsets • Similar to Pathways 2 & 3, but relies on the purchase of offsets rather than changes in energy generation • Heavily reliant on offsets to meet target • Significant ongoing cost to the ACT Government and the community • Capital investment • nil

17. Pathway 5: Carbon offsets • No change in the use or supply of energy • Complete reliance on offsets to meet target • Significant ongoing cost to the ACT Government and the community • Capital investment • nil

18. Consultation and processes • Submissions will be invited from the public • Community engagement • Launch of Draft AP2 (est. 14 Nov 2011) • World Cafe event (est. 30 Nov 2011) • Focused workshops (est. 1-10 Dec 2011) • Written submissions (est. close Jan 2012) • Final Action Plan 2 to be developed incorporating community feedback on the preferred pathway

19. Questions