E N D
1. Getting the Green Light:An Environmental Assessment of Today’s Passenger Vehicles James Kliesch
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
3. Why be concerned? Every 2 seconds in this country, a new vehicle is purchased
Every other one of those is a light duty truck (pickup, minivan, SUV), typically with higher tailpipe emissions and lower fuel economy
U.S. passenger vehicles consume ~125 billion gallons of gasoline each year.
4. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue to grow
5. How do you address consumption & emissions? One way: promote the manufacture and purchase of clean, efficient vehicles.
6. ACEEE’s Green Book® Consumer guide, produced annually since Feb 1998
7th edition (model year ‘04) released 2/10/04
Available at www.GreenerCars.com
7. GreenerCars.com Three main aspects to the website:
Popular Tables (Greenest, Meanest, Best-in-Class)
General consumer info on vehicles and the environment, how to buy green, etc.
Database of all MY2000-2004 vehicles/configurations (approx. 6,200 listings), and their “Green Scores”
8. What Determines a Vehicle’s Green-ness? Fuel Economy
Affects overall GHG emissions, plus non-regulated tailpipe pollutants (ex. SOx, N2O)
Affects upstream emissions
Tailpipe Emissions
A vehicle’s emission standard specifies quantity of CO, HC, NOx, PM emitted
Embodied Emissions (to lesser degree)
9. Emission Standard Primer California
LEV I
ULEV I
LEV II
ULEV II
SULEV II
PZEV Federal
Tier 2 bin 11
Tier 2 bin 10
…
Tier 2 bin 5
...
Tier 2 bin 2
Tier 2 bin 1
10. Select Tier 1 and Tier 2 Full Useful Life Exhaust Emission Standards
11. Green Vehicles Have... High Fuel Economy
Low Tailpipe Emissions
Generally, what are those today?
Hybrid-electric vehicles
Fuel efficient gasoline vehicles that meet stringent emission standards
CNG vehicles
12. Mean Vehicles Have... Low Fuel Economy
Bare-minimum Tailpipe Emissions
Generally, what are those today?
Large SUVs
Large pickup trucks
Performance-oriented sports cars
Diesels (interesting case, because high FE)
13. What a difference a half-decade makes...
14. Greenest VehiclesModel Years 2000 & 2004 Model Year 2000
GM EV1
Nissan Altra EV
Honda Civic GX
Honda Insight
Toyota RAV4 EV
Toyota Camry CNG
Ford Electric Ranger
Chevy Metro
Toyota Echo
Nissan Sentra CA
Mitsubishi Mirage
Honda Civic HX Model Year 2004
Honda Civic GX
Honda Insight
Toyota Prius
Honda Civic Hybrid
Toyota Echo
Nissan Sentra
Honda Civic HX
Mazda 3
Toyota Corolla
Hyundai Elantra
Scion xA
Honda Civic
15. Then again...
16. Meanest VehiclesModel Years 2000 & 2004 Model Year 2000
Chevy Suburban
Dodge Ram 2500
Ferrari Maranello
Chevy Silverado
Ford Excursion
Dodge B2500 Van
Chevy K2500 Pickup
Cadillac Escalade
GMC Yukon Denali
Toyota Land Cruiser
Ferrari 456M
Land Rover Range Rover
Model Year 2004
Volkswagen Touareg
Land Rover Range Rover
Ford Excursion
Dodge Ram 1500
Lexus LX 470
Toyota Land Cruiser
Hummer H2
GMC Yukon XL K2500
Chevy Suburban K2500
Toyota Sequoia
Lamborghini Murcielago
Land Rover Discovery Ser. II
17. Top Stories of Model Year 2004 (1) Federal Tier 2 and California LEV II tailpipe emission standards go into effect.
Greater #’s of SULEVs & PZEVs -- cleanest emissions levels of gasoline vehicles ever
On the whole, modest improvement federally, although standout models exist
18. Increasing Number of SULEV and PZEV Nameplates
19. Top Stories of Model Year 2004 (2) Hybrids continue to be a big story
New Toyota Prius, now midsize car, gets 3rd highest overall score, and highest rating of gasoline powered sedans (meets PZEV/Tier 2 bin 3 emissions; FE: 60/51)
Mild hybrid GMC Sierra Hybrid/Chevy Silverado Hybrid (FE: 19 mpg hybrid vs. 17 mpg conventional)
20. The Growth of Hybrid-Electric Vehicles MY2000
Honda Insight
MY2001
Toyota Prius
MY2003
Honda Civic Hybrid
MY2004
Toyota Prius (New)
GM Silverado/Sierra Hybrid MY2005 and beyond high-profile hybrids
Ford Escape HEV
Lexus RX400H
Toyota Highlander
Honda Accord
Saturn VUE
Rumored
Honda Odyssey
21. HEV Sales Figures/Estimates
Today: ~40,000 annual
50% Prius
47% Civic Hybrid
3% Insight
2007: ~500,000 annual
22. Top Stories of Model Year 2004 (3) Overall, FE continues to decline
Most recent confirmed information shows combined car/truck fuel economy at lowest level since 1980
Due to high sales of large SUVs and pickups
These market segments have been aggressively pursued by import companies (i.e., not just a Big 3 problem)
23. Passenger Car/TruckFuel Economy Trends (Hellman and Heavenrich 2003)
24. Improvements in Low-Fuel Economy Vehicles are Critical 14 mpg --> 16 mpg
(a 14% improvement)
Saves 134 gallons annually 35 mpg --> 51 mpg
(a 46% improvement)
Saves 134 gallons annually
25. SUVs on the Rise(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)
26. The Changing SUV Segment(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)
27. Reason For Entry/Luxury SUV Growth: Crossover Vehicles
28. Are Crossovers Environmentally Friendly? Eco-friendliness depends on use:
Is it a greener alternative for ski trips to mountains? Perhaps.
Can you save the planet by using it to zip around town? No.
Eco-friendliness depends on vehicle:
Pontiac Vibe? Yes.
Infiniti FX45? No.
29. What Lies Ahead?
30. Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball Near-Term (Present-2010)
Continued improvement of gasoline-powered vehicles
Release of new hybrid vehicles
Continued deployment of an alternative technologies portfolio
Room for diesel?
31. Near-Term (Present-2010) Continued improvement of gasoline-powered vehicles
Lightweight materials use; engine operation (EGR, VVT, etc.); transmission improvements (CVT); improved OBD
Seen today in Honda Civic, Nissan Sentra CA, Honda Accord PZEV, Ford Focus PZEV, others
32. Near-Term (Present-2010) Release of new hybrid-electric vehicles
Ford Escape HEV
Lexus RX400H
Toyota Highlander
Honda Accord
Saturn VUE
Others: Chevrolet Equinox (2006), Malibu (2007)
33. Near-Term (Present-2010) Continued deployment of an alternative technologies portfolio
Alt fuel vehicles, primarily in fleet use (at least initially)
Electric minicars
Test deployment of fuel cell vehicles
34. Near-Term (Present-2010) Room for diesel?
Numerous questions remain about the viability of significant light duty diesel penetration
35. Diesel Car and Light Truck Retail Sales, 1970-2001
36. Technology Costs
Health Impacts
Regulatory Constraints
Fuel Quality
Technical Developments
Consumer Attitudes
37. Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball Mid-Term (2015-2030)
Stronger presence of hybrid-electric vehicles
Introduction of fuel cell vehicles
38. Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball Far-Term (2030 and beyond)
Stronger presence of fuel cell vehicles
Need time to develop cell technologies and production techniques
Need time to address dual-conundrum of (1) using hydrogen and dealing with storage/infrastructure, or (2) using liquid fuel (such as methanol) and dealing with processing
39. Thank You
James Kliesch
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
1001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 801
Washington, DC 20036
(202) 429-8873
jkliesch@aceee.org