Climate change signals in the Greater Horn of Africa and possible adaptation options

1. Climate change signals in the Greater Horn of Africa and possible adaptation options Christopher Oludhe Department of Meteorology University of Nairobi/ICPAC THE 3RD CRAM (CROP AND RANGELAND MONITORING) WORKSHOP IN NAIROBI, 26 - 30TH September, 2011,RCMRD,Nairobi, Kenya.

2. Some Definitions • Climate – Is the average weather conditions (taken over a period not less than 30 years), including seasonal to inter-annual extremes and variations locally, regionally and across the globe. • Weather is the day to day variations in the climate parameter. • Climate variability – Is the year to year fluctuation or the variation in mean state of climate on all spatial and temporal scales. • Climate Change refers to a change in the state of the climate that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to naturaland anthropogenicprocesses.

3. The science of climate change The climate of any given place is determined by the global climate system that includes the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (liquid water), the cryosphere (ice and snow), the lithosphere (rock and soil) and the biosphere (plant and animals, including humans). The Earth’s climate is influenced by the amount of energy coming from the sun, and also by other factors including amount of greenhouse gasesand aerosols in the atmosphere, and the properties of the Earth’s surface, which determine how much of this solar energy is retained or reflected back to space.

4. Climate Change Concept:Change in mean, frequency and magnitude

6. CO2, NH4 and N2OConcentrations before Industrialization and Now

7. SOURCES OF GHG Carbon dioxide (CO2): combustion of fossil fuels, solid waste, wood, and wood products; cement manufacture. Human activities can also enhance or reduce removals of CO2 from the atmosphere by vegetation and soils (e.g., via reforestation or deforestation). Methane (NH4): coal mining, natural gas handling, trash decomposition in landfills, and digestion by livestock. Significant natural sources include wetlands and termite mounds. Nitrous oxide (N2O): nitrogen fertilizers, certain industrial manufacturing, and combustion of solid waste and fossil fuels. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6): commercial, industrial, and household products. ;

8. Global air temperatures amomalies

9. Observed effects of Climate Change • Sea level is rising. • Arctic sea ice is melting • Glaciers and permafrost are melting.  • Sea-surface temperatures are warming. • The temperatures of large lakes are warming. • Heavier rainfall cause flooding in many regions. • Crops are withering • Extreme drought is increasing. • Ecosystems are changing • Hurricanes have changed in frequency and strength. • More frequent heat waves. • Warmer temperatures affect human health. Seawater is becoming more acidic

10. Courtesy: NASA

11. SOME REGIONAL INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE It is now evident thatsome climate change signals are already making themselves apparent in the GHA subregion. They include: Temperature rises; Decreasing rainfall trends Melting and retreat of mountain glaciers; Increasing frequency of ENSO events (extreme climate events- Frequent occurrence of droughts and Floods); These change signals have been associated with the following observed impacts: Sea level rises Resurgences of some diseases; Rivers becoming more seasonal or disappearing altogether; Shrinking of lake levels and sizes; and Shifts in rainfall seasons among others.

12. Shrinking Lake Nakuru Drying of Rivers Mt. Kilimanjaro in 1990 and 2000

13. Observed Climate Change Signals in the Eastern Africa Temperature rise

14. INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA: OND Rainfall Trends In Kenya Marsabit Nyahururu Nyahururu Narok

15. Kenya and Tanzania Rainfall Trends

16. Trends of Maximum and Minimum Temperature over Mandera

17. Rainfall Trends in Moyale

18. Rainfall Trends in the GHA

20. Vulnerability of the African Continent

22. Climate Projections • The future climate will be determined partly by the amount of the greenhouse gases that will be emitted, which in turn is determined by future developments in the economy, technology, and population growth. • Population size, affluence, fossil fuel consumption, and energy efficiency all have tremendous influence on the overall global emissions.

23. Visualising Family of Scenarios

24. Family of Scenarios A1FI (fossil fuel intensive), A1B (balanced), and A1T (predominantly non-fossil fuel)

25. Future Climate Projections • By 2100, temperature will rise 1.8 – 4 ˚C. • Sea level will rise: 18 - 59 cm. • Oceans will become more acidic. • Hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will become more frequent. • There will be more precipitation at high latitudes and less precipitation in most subtropical regions. • Tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense.

26. Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Africa Temperature and precipitation changes over Africa. Differences between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099, averaged over 21 GCMs

27. Areas with >20% loss in length of growing season by 2050 Projected Impacts of Climate Change • Climate variability and climate change are already a threat to food security. • Frequent droughts mean famines as a result of loss in livelihoods. • Temperature rises have been accompanied by an increase in vector-borne diseases such as highland malaria, typhoid and cholera. • Decrease in length of growing season, and areas suitable for rain-fed agriculture.

28. Reducing Climate Impacts • The severe impacts associated with extreme climate events in the various sub-sectors can be reduced through good understanding of the climate patterns/events, enhanced monitoring, early warning, effective and timely dissemination of early warning products and awareness creation on the usefulness of climate information and prediction products.

29. Proposed Activities for reducing climate impacts • Examine, Identifyand document the extreme weather and climate events that affect the various sectors. • Develop relevant policies that will factor climate information and prediction products into disaster preparedness and management. • Encourage closer collaboration between the producers of climate information and the users of these information.

30. Cont.. • Setup early warning units for disaster preparedness and management within the above sub-sectors • Build Capacity in the usage, understandability and relevance of climate information products within each of the sectors. • Document the potential benefits of utilizing climate information products in the sectors. • Encourage collaborative/joint research amongst the research institutions in addressing the devastating impacts of extreme weather and climate events. • Document the climate information repackaging needs for the various sectors.

31. Adaptation strategies in the Water Sector • Management of water outflows from dams • More efficient water use • Proper management of water resources • Rain water harvesting • Catchments protection • River bank protection • Soil water conservation measures • Crop diversification • Intercropping so as to spread the risk • Adoption of drought resistant crops • Stocking of hay as well as livestock destocking prior to drought period and restocking when the season improves • Timely, Efficient and effective early warning systems on climate anomalies

32. Adaptation Technologies in Agriculture

33. Conclusions • Climate change impacts have the potential to undermine and even, undo progress made in improving the socio-economic well-being of many countries in Africa. • There is need to focus on reducing the risks associated with the current climate variability and extremes in order to be able to adapt to future changes in climate.

34. RECOMMENDATIONS • Need to Conduct studies to understand of local / regional climate systems • Understand and Predict regional variability / change • Need for mapping regional climate hazards • Need to Address Regional climate data gaps, Capacity building needs, Climate modelling and the use of various climate change impact tools.

35. END Adapt or Perish THANK YOU