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European Climate Assessment

European Climate Assessment. CCl/CLIVAR ETCCDMI meeting Norwich, UK 24-26 November 2003 Albert Klein Tank KNMI, the Netherlands. Guide. ECA project Indices Daily dataset Regional workshop planning Available web resources. Guide. ECA project Indices Daily dataset

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European Climate Assessment

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  1. European Climate Assessment CCl/CLIVAR ETCCDMI meeting Norwich, UK 24-26 November 2003 Albert Klein Tank KNMI, the Netherlands

  2. Guide • ECA project • Indices • Daily dataset • Regional workshop planning • Available web resources

  3. Guide • ECA project • Indices • Daily dataset • Regional workshop planning • Available web resources

  4. ECA project • initiated by EUMETNET in 1998; coordinated by KNMI • project report issued in 2002; next report in 2006 • daily station data collated and processed at KNMI • at present 41 participants from 39 countries • joint paper on ECA dataset published in Int. J. of Climatol, 2002 • only reliable series kept for trend analyses • four common homogeneity tests applied on derived monthly and annual series (see examples)

  5. ECA project –continued– • core set of indices for extremes calculated • public website presents all results as time series plots and trend maps >> primarily used for discussion • website keeps dictionary of agreed definitions for core set of indices (Peterson et al., WMO-TD1071) • standardization makes it easy to compare results to other regions • results serve as input to worldwide analyses(Frich et al., 2002; Alexander et al., in prep.) • results are used for impact studies (e.g. EEA)

  6. Temperature Precipitation Wijngaard, Klein Tank and Können, Int. J. of Climatol., 2003 Data quality control and homogeneity

  7. ECA website: www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca

  8. Guide • ECA project • Indices • Daily dataset • Regional workshop planning • Available web resources

  9. Klein Tank and Können, J. Climate, 2003

  10. WMO status of global climate in 2002 www.wmo.ch

  11. 3x 6x Day-count indices of extremes Relation between relative trend bq/X required for 80% detection probability (5% level) and series length N for extreme events with average return period Tret Klein Tank and Können, J. Climate, 2003

  12. “Amplified” response of very wet days Linear trends in rainy season, last ~50 years Easterling et al. (BAMS, 2000) in IPCC-TAR

  13. Klein Tank and Können, J. Climate, 2003

  14. Frich et al. (Clim. Res., 2002) in IPCC-TAR

  15. Indices –work in progress– • study properties of daily distributions other than expressed in core set of indices • consider more advanced statistical methods to supplement the ‘simple’ descriptive indices(cf. Beijing IPCC workshop) • consider multi-element indices and impact-specific indices • address the possible causes of observed trends by studying the relation with circulation (e.g. NAO) • compare observation results to GCM model simulations (e.g. 62mem 1940-2080 CCSM ensemble in Challenge)

  16. Guide • ECA project • Indices • Daily dataset • Regional workshop planning • Available web resources

  17. Daily dataset • at present over 900 series (Tmin, Tmean, Tmax, Precip) from 300 European stations in ECA-dataset • 100% available as derived indices series(cf. dataset used in Frich et al., 2002) • 80% available as public daily series through website >> important for additional analyses • ECA dataset = European contribution to GSN? • in case you hold daily data for Europe or Mediterranean, you should join!

  18. Daily dataset –work in progress– • improve station density in data sparse areas • provide additional metadata on observations and sites (cf. Aguilar et al., WMO, in prep.) • improve data QC procedures (cf. GDCN) • explore homogenisation methods for daily series • disseminate data in netCDF/DODS for easy model comparison and in STARDEX-, GDCN-, etc. formats • explore possibilities for gridded data products • blend and auto-update station series using SYNOPs from ECMWF archive (see example)

  19. Data blending and auto-updating 1900 2003 interrupted station series nearby station SYNOPs blended series >> makes it possible to include up-to-date monitoring type of indices products; see example: 2003 summer warmth in Europe >>

  20. Guide • ECA project • Indices • Daily dataset • Regional workshop planning • Available web resources

  21. ECA website: www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca

  22. Available ECA web resources • All information for ECA partners available at(public) website • website will remain operational at least until 2008(under EUMETNET contract) • concept can easily be shared with other regions, e.g. those of the upcoming workshops(technical support (webserver, etc.) available from KNMI)

  23. Consider that: • maintenance is crucial for success:frequently update indices results (and daily data)and check links to other sites (if portal functionality)(ECA at least 6-monthly updates) • one should be prepared for significant amount of questions that will be generated by the website(ECA: about 10/week at 30k pageviews/week) • future redesign of web interface/software is necessary(at present ECA improves data access and includes monitoring type of indices products like auto-updated indices such as summer heatwave example)

  24. the end … questions?

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