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Summary of Dr. Jonathan Gruber’s Health Insurance Exchange Modeling

Summary of Dr. Jonathan Gruber’s Health Insurance Exchange Modeling . Jeff Bontrager Colorado Health Institute Marketing, Enrollment and Outreach Workgroup (MEOW) Meeting September 21, 2011 bontragerj@coloradohealthinstitute.org. Background and caveats.

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Summary of Dr. Jonathan Gruber’s Health Insurance Exchange Modeling

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  1. Summary of Dr. Jonathan Gruber’s Health Insurance Exchange Modeling Jeff Bontrager Colorado Health Institute Marketing, Enrollment and Outreach Workgroup (MEOW) Meeting September 21, 2011 bontragerj@coloradohealthinstitute.org

  2. Background and caveats • This presentation was given by Dr. Jonathan Gruber from MIT to the Colorado Health Benefit Exchange Board on Sept 16, 2011 • Data source is the 2008-09 Colorado Household Survey and the Gruber Microsimulation Model • All numbers are estimates, limited to ages 0-64 • The final report, including narrative, methods and assumptions, is planned for release within the next month

  3. Table 1: Colorado Enrollments

  4. Table 2: Estimate of ACA Effect, 2016

  5. Table 3: Summary of Previously Uninsured, 2016 Post-ACA

  6. Table 4: Movements due to ACA: 2016 Note: “-” indicates a movement that is less than 10,000 but greater than 0.

  7. Table 5: Reformed Market Participation and Tax Credit Uptake: 2016

  8. Table 6: Premiums and Actuarial Values for those Remaining on Nongroup: 2016 Note: The changes in this table do not reflect removal of pre-existing conclusions restrictions, reuse of any funds that fund the high risk pool (which is now folded into the reformed market), or reinsurance/risk adjustment/risk corridor mechanisms.

  9. Table 7: Household Budget Effects: 2016

  10. $1,500*

  11. $1,150*

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