The African Centre of Excellence for Studies in Public and Non-motorised Transport.

1. An Investigation of the Perceived Consequences to Employees of Reducing Employment Related Trip End Choices in Cape Town HazvineiTsitsiTamukaMoyo Romano Del Mistro ______________________ University of Cape Town The African Centre of Excellence for Studies in Public and Non-motorised Transport. A University of Cape Town, University of Dar Es Salaam and University of Nairobi collaboration. This project was funded by the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations | www.vref.se

2. 2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Motivation -Transport poverty • Background - Climate change • - Peak oil • Literature - Job housing balance • - Sufficient choice • Methodology • Results - The Cape Town Case • -Application to Global South Cities

3. TRANSPORT POVERTY • Affordable transport for work commutes • Transport poverty in global –more than 10% spent on transport • South Africa –National Household Travel survey • over 80% of the low income use public transport. • 38% spending more than 10% of income • 28% spending more than 20%. (DOT, 2003) • Above the 10% benchmark (Behrens , 2005)

4. 4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND PEAK • Climate change - 23% of carbon emissions (2007) from transport • - Need to reduce carbon emissions • Peak Oil - this increases, food prices, transport costs • - marginalised groups are the most vulnerable • - they can not change modes • - potentially stuck in a cycle of transport poverty

5. 5 SOLUTIONS TO THE HIGHLIGHTED PROBLEMS • Traditional Interventions - Sustainable development • - Sustainable energy • (these solutions are not applicable to developing countries) • Proposing “city/urban restructuring” • There is a possibility of having a win-win outcome with this strategy

6. 6 DEFINING “CITY RESTRUCTURING’ FOR THIS STUDY • Small cities (sub-cities) which have “radii” that provide “sufficient” internal accessibility and limited external mobility

7. 7 IS THERE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR “CITY RESTRUCTURING” • Cities in developing countries are expected to double in size and in population in the next 25 years • Need for a new growth strategy that locates/direct this growth • - reduction in urban sprawl • - shorter commutes • - job-housing balance • Cape Town is not an exception - apartheid planning has greatly influenced the urban architecture • Economic polarisation by concentrating employment in Southern and northern suburbs (Turok, 2001; Sinclair-Smith & Turok, 2012)

8. SOME SOLUTIONS • Job Housing balance • Reducing excess travel has been suggested • However-this is unlikely to produce results- 16% for the affluent and 6%/for the marginalised

9. 9 THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES OF CITY RESTRUCTURING • Limited external connectivity implies a reduction in access to other employment nodes • Limited external mobility implies limited access to other employment nodes • Need to ensure that there is “sufficient" access to employment What is “sufficient” access

10. 10 10 “TOO MUCH CHOICE THEORY • No literature on sufficient access in transport studies • Made use of literature in psychology and marketing to understand the notion of sufficient access • Transport the “too much choice theory onto a job choice framework to investigate the question, how much accessibility should cities provide? • City restructuring will reduce the employment catchment size available

11. 11 11 HYPOTHESIS FOR THE STUDY • “There is a point beyond which the provision of a larger catchment size from which individuals choose jobs from will have negligible or lower benefits to employees” • A large catchment area is associated with more employment c choices • Literature on choice showed 3 aspects of choice • in small quantities choice is beneficial • as the number of options increases, the benefits increase at a decreasing rate • as the number of options increases, utility reaches a maximum and thereafter results in negative effects (Schwartz, 2004, Markus &Schwartz, 2010) • “these three aspects are the ones we are trying to transpose onto a job choice framework”

12. 12 MORE CHOICE EXPLAINED That’s the point that would provide “sufficient access”

13. 13 METHOD • THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK • Presenting individuals with hypothetical job scenarios • This was identified as a utility maximisation problem set • Individuals making trade-offs to identify a job that provided them with the highest utility

14. 14 SAMPLE SIZE SELECTION • 200 respondents from the low income - All Media Products Survey • Earning R3000-6400 in 2013 prices • These were identified to be living in transport poverty

15. 15 VARIABLES • Literature review (Kolstad, 2011; Chimanikire, et al., 2007; Tversky, 1972)and focus groups informed on variables and attributes • Travel time- calculated based on distance • Distance from home - 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 kilometres • Cost of transport-calculated based on distance • Changes in salary- focus groups informed • Number of job opportunities in an area- based on distance (Proctor & Del Mistro, 2013) • Levels for attributes allowed individuals to make trade-offs without bias • These were informed by focus groups

16. 16 DISCRETE CHOICE EXPERIMENT EXAMPLE

17. 17 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS • Random utility - McFadden (1974). • Multinomial logit • Assumption that the alternative chosen yields the highest utility and the decision making equation

18. 18 SOME ESTIMATED MODELS

19. 19 DISCUSSION OF RESULTS FOR THE CAPE TOWN CASE • Aspects that provoke debate on city restructuring and the current city structures • RECAP ON HYPOTHESIS • “There is a point beyond which the provision of a larger catchment size from which individuals choose jobs from will have negligible or lower benefits to employees” • Utility decreasing with distance - this is consistently observed • Large part worth utility for shorter distances - shorter distances preferred • Significant reduction in part worth utility between 15km to 30km

20. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UTILITY AND DISTANCE

21. 21 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UTILITY AND CATCHMENT SIZE • Key relationship in this study • Each commuting distance was converted to a catchment by use of a dummy variables • Relationship between utility and catchment size was observed • OUTCOMES • A consistent decrease in utility with distance • Utility turned to negative for distances greater than 20km • Currently some individuals in Cape Town are commuting further than 20km • These individuals are only aware of transport cost, they do not make job and home locations decisions from a utility perspective • the role of policy to intervene

22. 22 TOWARDS POLICY AND ACCESSIBILITY TO JOBS • cities are shaped by market forces of demand and supply BUT individuals locations choices also play a part • Same individuals who lobby for subsidies “CITY RESTRUCTURING” • ”Provides a nudge in the way individuals make their job and location choices • It provides “sufficient” access to job opportunities while at the same time discouraging trips that may results in government subsidies. • For this study is was observed that cities sizes greater than 20 km were not appropriate as shown by negative utilities • Need to identify where utility is at optimal

23. 23 CONCLUSIONS • This study presented a case for the need to relocate future growth and how city restructuring is a plausible solution • Unless there are interventions commuting distances will be even longer. • Potential decrease in commuting distance - climate change and peak oil solutions WIN –WIN SITUATION • Need to accept the role of individuals choices in spatial locations

24. …….CONTINUED • Unsustainability of current urban accessibility • Need for a new planning rhetoric that places emphasis on “sufficient” accessibility • Possible lessons for other global South cities • Further research on finding the actual city sizes that would provide sufficient access

25. Thank You !! This project was funded by the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations | www.vref.se