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CEO Roundtable: Critical Issues in Today’s Media

CEO Roundtable: Critical Issues in Today’s Media. Patrick Kenealy CEO, IDG . Using the Past to Sell Internal Change. IDG is coping with 3 major, simultaneous changes. Fundamental technology change business cycles and vendor “waves” A major new media cycle.

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CEO Roundtable: Critical Issues in Today’s Media

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  1. CEO Roundtable: Critical Issues in Today’s Media Patrick Kenealy CEO, IDG

  2. Using the Past to Sell Internal Change

  3. IDG is coping with 3 major, simultaneous changes • Fundamental technology change • business cycles and vendor “waves” • A major new media cycle

  4. Was this slope obvious in 1970?

  5. Was this trend obvious in 1956?(Price/MB of disk space) • 1956: $10,000/MB • 1980: $200/MB • 1990: $9/MB • 2000: 2 cents/MB • 2004: 8.7MB/cent

  6. DJIA PC Stocks 2,500 2,000 Dow 30 1,500 1,000 A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1983 Source: JGantz Infoworld Stock Index A Typical IT Stock Crash 1984

  7. $ Trillion of PC Shipments! $ Billions 80 U.S. PC Shipment Revenues 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 The PC Crash, and after Source: IDC 2001

  8. Cause of Boom And Contraction Cycles When Promising New Technology Appears: • Many new firms launched with Venture Capital to try to exploit this new technology. • Potential Buyers are confused by too many choices of vendors and products. • Lower than expected sales cause many firms to drop out of market or to consolidate with competitors. • When surviving suppliers reduced to less than twenty, buyers gain confidence and make major commitments.

  9. 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 Computing Industry “Cycles” Can Be Deceptive

  10. Computing Waves: 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 Mainframes: Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox IBM

  11. Computing Waves: 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 Mainframes: Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox, IBM Minicomputers: Digital, Data General, Prime, Stratus, Tandem, Wang, IBM, H-P

  12. Computing Waves: 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 Mainframes: Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox, IBM Minicomputers: Digital, Data General, Prime, Stratus, Tandem, Wang, IBM, H-P PCs: ALR, AST, Atari, Compaq, Everex, Leading Edge, Micron, Packard Bell, TI, Tandon, IBM, H-P, Apple, Dell, Acer, Legend

  13. 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 Computing Waves: Mainframes: Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell, RCA, GE, Xerox, IBM Internet: 24/7, AltaVista, Etoys, Exodus, Goto.com, Globalcomm, US Web, AOL, Amazon, eBay, Expedia, Yahoo Minicomputers: Digital, Data General, Prime, Stratus, Tandem, Wang IBM, H-P PCs: ALR, AST, Atari, Compaq, Everex, Leading Edge, Micron, Packard Bell, TI, Tandon, IBM, H-P,Applw, Dell, Acer, Legend

  14. 1980 2000 1990 1960 1970 So, what is the next wave? Security/Privacy PC Gaming Autonomous Computing BioIT/Life Sciences Gaming networks Web Services Job function Gadgets/Pers Auto RFID Console gaming Digital Home Mobile Apps/Svcs/Data

  15. New technology creates new media • Movable type: broadside and pamphlet journalism • Steam-powered rotary press: Giant metropolitan newspapers • Railroad: Big national magazines • Telegraph & fax: Newspaper chains • Radio • Television • Computers and databases: Controlled-circulation publishing • Cable: the 500 channel universe • Satellite: the global network • PCs, Internet, broadband: Web publishing

  16. Some new media thoughts • New market measurements are usual • Ad format experimentation and standardization are usual • Church/state boundary shifts are usual • Employee training – and turnover – are usual • New products, new leaders, and new fortunes emerge • Metros - McClure, McCormack, Ochs • Newspaper chains - Pulitzer, Scripps, Hearst, Knight-Ridder • Radio – Sarnoff • TV – Paley • Cable – Dolan, Malone • Satellite – Murdoch, Turner • Internet – Case, Yang, Philo, Brin,

  17. In conclusion… • The world of technology is always changing • The technology business is always changing • Journalism is changing • Change is the only constant

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