1 / 7

Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U”

Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U”. Njema Frazier, PhD Acting Deputy Director, Office of Advanced Simulation and Computing. July 2008. Stockpile Stewardship Program Decision-Basis. Computing. Balancing Act in building Confidence. Representing the Science

Download Presentation

Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U”

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U” Njema Frazier, PhD Acting Deputy Director, Office of Advanced Simulation and Computing July 2008

  2. Stockpile Stewardship Program Decision-Basis Computing

  3. Balancing Act in building Confidence • Representing the Science • Hydrodynamics • Turbulence • Equations of State • Neutron Chain Reactions • Material Properties, Strengths • Shocks and Material Interfaces • Material Deformation, Plastic Flow • Nuclear and Thermonuclear Reactions • Electronics. Electrical Systems • Energetic Materials, Chemical Reactions • Heat Flow • Opacities • Magneto-hydrodynamics • Plasmas • Lasers • Radiation and Charged Particle Transport • Solving the Problems • LEPs • SFIs • Engineering • Safety • Threat Reduction • Secure Transportation • ICF • Supplying the Tools • Codes • Models • Platforms • Vis Capabilities • Expertise • Facilities • QMU Undervalued Tool in building Confidence: A Sound Methodology for identifying, quantifying, understanding, and driving down uncertainties

  4. National Decision-Basis Computing

  5. Delivery of Validated Tools • We Know all the Science present • We Understand all the Science present • We Understand how all the Science behaves in all our Systems • We Understand how all the Science would behave with variations on our Systems • We have identified the key Science phenomena present • We Understand most of the key Science present • We Understand how most of the key Science behaves in our Systems • We Understand how most of the key Science would behave with minor variations on our Systems

  6. Balancing Act in building Confidence • Scientific Approach • Systematic • Directed • Based on Core Methodologies • Rigorous testing • Sound Results • Reproducible • Consistent • Understandable • Well Understood Uncertainties • Error Bounds • Physical-basis for free parameters • Relationship between approximations and exact solutions • Identification of Single and Aggregate Uncertainties • Measures of Progress • Predictive Capability Framework • V&V Assessments • Milestones • External Reviews • Reduced Uncertainties in baselines • Increased usage Looking to build confidence in Methodologies and Measures …in addition to tools, people, and direction.

  7. Thank you!

More Related