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Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit

GETTING TO GRIPS WITH HOUSEGROUP. Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit. Piers Elias. Introduction. JSU’s Previous Model Aims Reality Nature of the Challenge Solutions & Problems Conclusion. HISTORY. FORTRAN Model from the 1970s Cohort Component, Housing Led

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Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit

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  1. GETTING TO GRIPS WITH HOUSEGROUP Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit Piers Elias

  2. Introduction • JSU’s Previous Model • Aims • Reality • Nature of the Challenge • Solutions & Problems • Conclusion

  3. HISTORY • FORTRAN Model from the 1970s • Cohort Component, Housing Led • Transfer to PC Version in late 1996 • Added Darlington 1997 • POP HOUSE LAB GROUP Late 2005

  4. AIMS • Run modles in parallel to check • Use POP, House, LAB Group • Replace and enhance existing information • Sit back and relax

  5. Reality • Purchased December 2005 • POPGroup - sorted • HouseGroup - not got there yet • LabGroup – not even looked at

  6. The Challenge • Mid 2001 Resident Pop Household Pop  Household Representative Rates (HRR) Households

  7. 2001 to 2003 • Net Change in Households vs Net Build

  8. 2003 •  Households beginning to diverge

  9. 2003 - 2006 • Net Change in Households vs Net Build

  10. 2006 •  Households beginning to diverge

  11. 2021 •  Long term variation

  12. DCLG Model • Uses long term trends from 1971 • Doesn’t reflect local changes in build or economic environment • Need for alternative

  13. Replicating “OLD” Model • Migration for Tees Valley determined by Trends • District Migration determined by Net House Build with trends in mind & Age Profile • Net House Build & Migrant Age profile determines Household Population • Use HRR to squeeze Household Population into estimated Target Households.

  14. HOUSEHOLDS POPULATION MIGRATION

  15. Household Targetting - Options • Use POPGROUP - Alter Migration rates to alter Total Pop, hence HHld Pop • Use POPGROUP - Use Dwelling Change option in HHDWELL • Use HOUSEGROUP - Alter Household Representative Rates to give Number of Households (INRATES) • Use HOUSEGROUP to alter the Household Population (POPHH & HHPop_forecast)

  16. Option 1 – POPGROUPMigration rates • Along with a basic HOUSEGROUP run • Hard to control to hit target Households • Uses DCLG rates which doesn’t help LA level projections

  17. Option 2 – POPGROUP HHDWELL • Needs HOUSEGroup to be set up beforehand • Input your Dwelling Change and Migration is adjusted after comparing with DCLG Households But… Lose control over Migration

  18. Option 3 – HOUSEGROUPINRATES • IN_RATES - Set up calculation to target Households but …. • Concealed Households • Couldn’t resolve different figures…ongoing • Most potential

  19. Option 4 – HOUSEGROUPPOPHH & HHPop_forecast • Not sure if or how this would work – probably not

  20. CONCLUSION • Altering Household Rep Rates shows most potential • Reading the manual helps • Course on Manipulating Household projections? • Anyone already there, please let me know!

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