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OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?. THE WAR ON TERROR. U.S.-imposed rules of geopolitical game Co-existence with geo-economic game Latin America: “spectator” role in geopolitics active participation in geo-economic game. PREVAILING CONDITIONS. Ideological divisions: left, right, center

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OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

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  1. OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

  2. THE WAR ON TERROR • U.S.-imposed rules of geopolitical game • Co-existence with geo-economic game • Latin America: • “spectator” role in geopolitics • active participation in geo-economic game

  3. PREVAILING CONDITIONS • Ideological divisions: left, right, center • Prevalence of democratic discourse • Focus on “strategic options” • Unavailable alternatives: • Bolivarian dream of collective unity • Rule of international law, organizations • Social revolution • Thus: geo-economic option (with U.S. focused on geopolitics)

  4. GE0-ECONOMICS 1. TURN TOWARD THE NORTH • Vicente Fox (Mexico) • Hopes for immigration reform • NAFTA constraints • Opposition throughout Latin America • Comrades in the War on Terror (Geopolitics too) • Colombia • Guatemala • The FTA Club • Chile [special case] • Central America + DR • Peru • Colombia • Panama

  5. GEO-ECONOMICS 2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY • Brazil (Lula + Dilma) • Grandeza brasileira • Role in Haiti • Resistance to FTAA • Venezuela (Chávez) • ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas) • International assistance programs • Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries • Denunciations of Bush and USA • Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)

  6. GEO-ECONOMICS 3. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY • Brazil (Lula) • WTO • Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21) • G3, G5 • Venezuela (Chávez) • Non-Aligned Movement • UN Security Council • Petroleum exporters (including Iran)

  7. GEO-ECONOMICS 4. BEYOND THE HEMISPHERE • Europe • Divisions over Iraq • Concern about EU future • FTAs with Mexico, Chile • Distancing from/by Spain • Asia • Withdrawal of Japan • Eruption of “China fever” • PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and cooperative relations” with Cuba • Iran? • Really?

  8. ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS • Exports to China, 2008: • Argentina 9.0% • Brazil 12.4% • Chile 4.8% • Mexico 0.7% • Cuba 18.4% • Liberation from IMF: • Argentina 2005 ($9.8 bn) • Brazil 2005 ($15.5 bn) • IMF “relegated to sidelines”

  9. U.S. SHARES OF TRADE, 2000-2010 • Imports __2000__ ___2010___ • Argentina 19.1 13.8 • Brazil 23.1 15.0 • Chile 17.8 17.0 • Mexico 72.0 60.6 • Venezuela 33.5 26.6 • Exports __2000__ ___2010___ • Argentina 12.0 5.4 • Brazil 22.4 9.6 • Chile 16.8 10.4 • Mexico 88.7 73.5 • Venezuela 51.9 38.7

  10. POLITICAL DIMENSIONS • Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies • Resuscitation of Cuba • Regional organizations w/o USA: • Rio Group (1986, 23 members) • Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008, 33 members) • CELAC (2010, 33 members) • Ibero-American Summits (1991) • MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus) • UNASUR (2005)

  11. BILATERAL DIMENSIONS • Argentina: “a distant relationship” • Brazil: “getting better all the time” • Chile: “cooperative friendship” • Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”

  12. THE BENEFITS OF INATTENTION?

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