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Brief About:

Brief About:. Super Flood 2010 in Pakistan. Arif Mahmood Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department. PMD. Seismology (Earthquake Monitoring). Hydrology (Flood Forecasting). Meteorology (Weather Forecasting). Specialized Early Warning Centres of PMD. National Weather

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Brief About:

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  1. Brief About: Super Flood 2010 in Pakistan Arif Mahmood Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department

  2. PMD Seismology (Earthquake Monitoring) Hydrology (Flood Forecasting) Meteorology (Weather Forecasting)

  3. Specialized Early Warning Centres of PMD National Weather Forecasting Centre Islamabad (NWFC) Marine Meteorology & Tropical Cyclone Early Warning Centre Karachi (TCWC) National Seismic Monitoring & Tsunami Early Warning Centre Karachi (NTWC) Flood Forecasting Division Lahore (FFD) Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre For Lai Nullah Basin Islamabad

  4. Risk Identification: Early warnings Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and maintenance of warnings at PMD 120 h 96 h 72 h 48 h 24 h Ensemble Pred. tools EPS, Probabilities Global models Global models Limited Area models L.A. models Nowcasting tools Nowcasting Warnings Activities

  5. HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND FLOOD FORECASTING Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) Lahore is a specialized unit of PMD for this purpose. • Responsibilities • i. Flood Forecasting • ii. River stream flow forecasting • iii Water availability Forecast for Dams • iii. Assisting Water Management at Dams specially during Monsoon

  6. Flood Forecasting System in Pakistan Meteorological Department • 10-cm Doppler Radar at (FFD) Lahore & Mangla • QPM Radar at Sialkot • Nationwide Network of Weather Surveillance Radars. • Satellite Ground Station • Numerical Forecasting Models • Meteorological Analysis Centre

  7. 5 cm radar at Islamabad RADAR NETWORK OF PMD IBD DIK RHK KHI Area covered by Doppler radar at Lahore 10 cm radar at FFD Lahore LHR

  8. Radar Image 28July 1700 Pst

  9. Radar Image 29July 0115 Pst

  10. Radar Image 29July 0140 Pst

  11. Extreme Event On July 23, 2001 621 mm of rainfall was recorded in Islamabad in just 8 hours

  12. Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD Advisory # 1 24th July 2010 Widespread Monsoon Rains predicted during the coming Week Weather Forecast for Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa Isolated rain/thunderstorm expected over Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa on Monday. Scattered rain/thundershowers with heavy falls expected on Tuesday/Wednesday Advisory # 2 26th July 2010 Widespread Monsoon Rains predicted from Tuesday to Thursday Weather Forecast for Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa Widespread rain/thundershowers (occasionally heavy falls over D.I.Khan, Bannu, Kohat, Mardan and Peshawar divisions) is expected in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa from Tuesday to Thursday.

  13. Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD Advisory # 3 27th July 2010 Time: 1400 Weather Forecast for Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa Widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated heavy falls expected over Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa on Tuesday/Wednesday, becoming scattered rain/thundershowers on Thursday. Isolated heavy falls may cause flash flooding in the hilly rivers/ravines of Hazara, Mardan and Peshawar areas. Weather Forecast for Punjab Widespread Rain/thundershowers (heavy at times over upper parts of Punjab) is expected in Punjab on Tuesday/Wednesday, becoming scattered rain/thundershowers on Thursday. Heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding in the local Naullahs/streams of Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala and D. G. Khan divisions.

  14. Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD Advisory # 4 Date: July 28, 2010/Time: 1500 PST Widespread Monsoon Rains predicted on Wednesday Night/Thursday Weather Forecast for Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa Widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated heavy falls expected over Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa Tonight/Thursday, becoming scattered on Friday. Isolated heavy falls may cause flash flooding in the local rivers/streams of Hazara, Mardan, Malakand and Peshawar areas. Weather Forecast for Punjab Widespread Rain/thundershowers (heavy at times) is expected in Punjab Tonight/Thursday, becoming scattered on Friday. Heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding in the local Naullahs/streams of Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala and D. G. Khan divisions during the period.

  15. Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD S.No.08                                                                Dated: 28th July 2010   Time of Issue: 1600 PST Significant  Flood Forecast For River Kabul and its Tributaries.                According to latest meteorological observations heavy rainfall has been recorded in upper Khyber Pakhtonkhwa. Under this scenario, the inundation in low lying areas and flash flooding is expected in River Kabul and its tributaries during next 24 to36-hours

  16. Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD S.No.09                                                                                                                               Dated: 28th July 2010 Time of Issue: 1900 PST Significant  Flood Forecast For River Indus at Tarbela              According to latest meteorological conditions heavy rainfall is expected in the upper catchments of river Indus. It is predicted that river Indus at Tarbela is likely to attain a medium to high flood level ranging between 3, 90,000 to 5, 30,000 cusecs during the period from 1930 hrs. PST of 28-07-2010 to 1000 hrs. PST of 29-07-2010.  

  17. Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD S.No.  10                                                               Date: 28-07-2010   Time of Issue: 2200 PST Significant  Flood Forecast For River Indus at Kalabagh           According to latest meteorological conditions heavy rainfall is expected in the upper catchments of river Indus. It is predicted that river Indus at Kalabagh is likely to attain a medium to high flood level ranging between 4,00,000 to 5, 40,000 cusecs during the period from 0400 hrs. PST of  29-07-2010  to 2200 hrs. PST of  29-07-2010.  

  18. 03-Aug-Rainfall recorded in different parts of country as predicted

  19. 04-Aug Rainfall recorded in different parts of country as predicted

  20. Flood Situation as on 17th August 2010 Pakistan Meteorological Department First Flood Wave Second Flood Wave (All values in Cusecs) Present inflow = 347000 Present Peak 832000 H.Peak=520000 (1992) Tarbela Kabul Present Peak 2,49,100 Present Flow: 116500 Present infow = 434744 Present Peak 937453 H.Peak=950005(1942) Kalabagh/Jinnah Chashma Present inflow=490878 Present Peak 1038873 H.Peak=786600(1976) Present inflow=580002 Present Peak 959991 H.Peak=788646(1958) Taunsa Present inflow=1037610 Present Peak 1148738 H.Peak=1199672 (1976) Guddu Sukkar Present inflow=1025455 Present Peak 1130995 H.Peak=1166574 (1986) Present inflow=353918 Fcst Peak 750000 H.Peak=980329 (1956) Kotri

  21. Guddu Present inflow=1037610 Present Peak 1148738 H.Peak=1199672 (1976) First Flood Wave Pakistan Meteorological Department First Flood Wave Second Flood Wave (All values in Cusecs) Sukkur Present inflow=1025455 Present Peak 1130995 H.Peak=1166574 (1986) Kotri Present inflow=353918 Fcst Peak 350000-500000 H.Peak=980329 (1956)

  22. 2nd Flood Wave (All values in Cusecs) Pakistan Meteorological Department Trimmu Present inflow=208345 Tarbela Present inflow = 347000 Kabul Present inflow =116500 Kalabagh / Jinnah Present infow = 434744 Chashma Present inflow=490878 Taunsa Present inflow=580002

  23. 2nd Flood Wave (All values in Cusecs) Pakistan Meteorological Department Second Flood Wave Guddu Present inflow=1037610 Present Peak 1148738 H.Peak=1199672 (1976) Sukkur Present inflow=1025455 Present Peak 1130995 H.Peak=1166574 (1986) Kotri (Fcst) 350,000 - 500,000 21st Aug, 2010

  24. Outlook for Monsoon Season (July-Sep) 2010      Meteorological data suggests that on all Pakistan basis the monsoon rains during Jul-Sep (2010) in most parts of the country are likely to be normal (+10%), which means that the over all availability of water in the country from monsoon rains would be sufficient.      Due to sharp sea-land temperature contrast, the development of some mid-tropospheric circulations are likely in north Arabian Sea that may cause heavy rainfall events over southern areas of Pakistan (Sindh) during Jul-Sep. Due to the interactions of westerly-easterly waves, few very heavy rainfall events would also occur over north Pakistan that may cause urban/flash flooding during Jul-Sep.

  25. Thank You

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