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South American Monsoon in Current and Future Climate

South American Monsoon in Current and Future Climate. Ana Carolina Nóbile Tomaziello - BRAZIL Carla Natalia Gulizia - ARGENTINA Douglas Lindemann - BRAZIL Flávio Justino - BRAZIL. Objectives.

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South American Monsoon in Current and Future Climate

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  1. South American Monsoon in Currentand Future Climate Ana Carolina NóbileTomaziello - BRAZIL Carla Natalia Gulizia - ARGENTINA Douglas Lindemann - BRAZIL Flávio Justino - BRAZIL

  2. Objectives • Evaluate ENSO as representedby CMIP5 GCMs (INM - Russia, MPI - Germany, MRI - Japan, NCC - Norway) for bothpresentand future climate. • Evaluatethe South American Monsoon response to ENSO variability. (http://www.clivar.org/sites/default/files/imported/organization/vamos/Publications/vamos_pg3.htm)

  3. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (47%) Precipitation rate Surfacetemperature

  4. 4 yearspeak

  5. CMIP5 models

  6. EOF1 Variance OBS: 47% Present (1970-2000) INM (12%) MRI (13%) MPI (23%) NCC (26%)

  7. Present (1970-2000) – Precipitation rate INM MRI MPI NCC

  8. Present (1970-2000) – Surfacetemperature MRI INM MPI NCC

  9. Intothe future...

  10. EOF1 Future (2070-2100) (20%) INM (12%) (26%) MRI (13%) (32%) MPI (23%) (23%) NCC (26%)

  11. Present (1970-2000) – Precipitation rate INM MRI MPI NCC

  12. Future (2070-2100) – Precipitation rate INM MRI MPI NCC

  13. Present (1970-2000) – Surfacetemperature MRI INM MPI NCC

  14. Future (2070-2100) – Surfacetemperature INM MRI MPI NCC

  15. Conclusions • MPI and NCC (MRI and INM) could (not) reproducethe South America ENSO response as comparedtoreanalysis data; • MPI and NCC (MRI and INM) were (not) abletoreproducethe ENSO characteristictimescale; • In exceptionof NCC allmodels show stronger ENSO in future climate as comparedtopresentdaymodeledclimate; • Generally, South Americamonsoon response to future ENSO wouldbeassociatedwithdrierandwarmerclimateconditions.

  16. Obrigado! ¡Gracias!

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