1 / 22

Preparing for QE1 Politics and Psychology

Preparing for QE1 Politics and Psychology. Richard C. Johnson May 3, 2006. Outline. Review of Key Politics and Psychology Concepts Application of Concepts to 2002 QE1 on ANWR Drilling Questions and Comments. Reminder – Come in with a Plan.

burt
Download Presentation

Preparing for QE1 Politics and Psychology

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Preparing for QE1 Politics and Psychology Richard C. Johnson May 3, 2006

  2. Outline • Review of Key Politics and Psychology Concepts • Application of Concepts to 2002 QE1 on ANWR Drilling • Questions and Comments

  3. Reminder – Come in with a Plan • The background materials will give you a good idea of what the topic will be • Worthwhile to ponder likely questions • For example, poll related question in psychology, interests/coalition question in politics • Use reading day to map key isuses out in your mind and on paper

  4. Know Your Strengths and Structure Your Time • Richard’s suggestions (by no means the only way to go) • Start with statistics: often reveals key information for other sections • Move to politics and psych: if you put off until the end, you may run out of time to answer completely • Spend the afternoon wracking your brain on economics

  5. Key Politics Concepts • The Four “I”s • Interests • Electoral, policy, moral? • Institutions • Senate rules (filibuster), bureaucracy, culture • Ideology • Personal beliefs, partisanship • Information • Does complete information exist? Sources?

  6. Other Things to Remember • Role of leadership • Bureaucracy – turf wars, culture • “Markets vs. Governments” • Elections and Electoral Politics • Types of Interest Groups – strength and importance

  7. Identify Key Interest Groups and Coalitions • Background material should provide sufficient info on issue • Explain both sides of issue • Identify groups associated with pro and con, describe “winners” and “losers” • Note relative strengths of each group and connection to your policymaker • Point out “strange bedfellows” and potential divisions in policymaker’s base constituency

  8. Making a Recommendation • Does the question ask for a policy recommendation? • Be CLEAR and SPECIFIC • Moderation is usually best • Explain why recommendation is best from both a policy and political perspective

  9. Second Question – IR? • Again, key info from background materials • Realism vs. liberalism • Multilateral vs. unilateral • Role of domestic public opinion in international relations

  10. Key Psychology Concepts • “Power of the Situation” • Prospect Theory • Valuing losses greater than gains • Framing • Bounded Rationality • Discounting (Myopia) • Biases and Heuristics • E.g. availability, representative, anchoring

  11. More Psych Concepts • Status Quo Biases • Uncertainty • Choices • Procedural Justice • “Groupthink” – social proof • Influence • Social diffusion • Channel factors • Personal endorsements/credibility/authority

  12. Polling Methodology Question • Q: What do poll results tell us about attitudes toward policy? • A: How is the question framed? • Is there information in the question that could affect the response? • Availability heuristic, choices • A: Is the issue salient? Do people have strong opinions?

  13. Polling Methodology Question • A: What is the sample makeup? Are different polls using different samples? • How is issue framed? • As a loss • As a gain • What is more effective?

  14. Framing/Implementation Question • Prospect theory – loss aversion • Weighting losses more than gains • Framing as loss more effective • Status quo bias • What is the anchor?

  15. Framing/Implementation Question • Myopia/Discounting • Do people really think long term or short term? • How can you influence people to make good decisions in the long term based on short term effects? • Group Dynamics? • Social Diffusion • Channel Factors • Procedural Justice

  16. 2002 QE1 – Politics (#8) • “unusual coalitions” • Pro: conservatives, GOP, Alaskans, oil/gas companies, auto industry, • Role of organized labor • “strange bedfellows” effect • Mixed depending on union • Con: Dems, travel industry, enrivos

  17. 2002 QE1 – Politics (#8) • “Congressional elections” • Democrats • Dems will link to special interests (Enron) • Focus on negative enviro impact • Labor split will hurt Dems • Republicans • Focus on national security • Gas prices • Job Creation • Diffused impact – stronger in some areas/races than others • Current events could impact (MidEast, gas prices)

  18. 2001 QE1 – Politics (#7) • Mostly from background readings • 1970s MidEast is not today’s MidEast • US imports more diverse (Russia/Canada) • Not as wealthy, need to maintain domestic stability • Domestic opinion in Arab states • More complex that Khalilzad implies in transcript

  19. 2002 QE1 – Psych (#5) • Earlier NYT poll had more with knowledge of ANWR than later Gallup poll • Suggests weak interests or knowledge • NYT poll references “conservation” • NYT has more opposed to drilling • Gallup, more neutral, shows support but also lack of knowledge • Implies answer based on framing of question • “Hard to tell exact attitudes from polls”

  20. 2002 QE1 – Psych (#5) • Status quo bias • Could emphasize that oil was eventually going to be drilled (loss less severe) • “Cost” of not drilling is increased gas prices, market and political instability • National security could worsen • Group dynamics – identify with supportive Alaskans

  21. 2002 QE1 – Psych (#6) • People heavily discount future • Out-of-pocket costs of fuel efficient car deter purchase in short run despite long term benefits • Overcome this by: • Using personal accounts • Social diffusion/group solidarity • Make impact immediate (HOV lane?) • Personal endorsements/authority figure

  22. Good luck! Questions?

More Related