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Missouri Phosphorus Issues as Viewed by an Economist in the Space Shuttle

Why are there Phosphorus Issues?. Phosphorus use history and balanceCRP impacts on P lossFarm and watershed assessmentManure P recycling potentialEnergy production recycling potentialHow do economic and environmental regulations impact P issues?What are the stakes?Solution strategies. Potash

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Missouri Phosphorus Issues as Viewed by an Economist in the Space Shuttle

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    1. Missouri Phosphorus Issues as Viewed by an Economist in the Space Shuttle

    2. Why are there Phosphorus Issues? Phosphorus use history and balance CRP impacts on P loss Farm and watershed assessment Manure P recycling potential Energy production recycling potential How do economic and environmental regulations impact P issues? What are the stakes? Solution strategies

    3. Potash & Phosphate Institute (PPI) Summary of Fertilizer and Manure Nutrients in North America (2002)

    5. US and Canadian commercial fertilizer consumption of N+P2O5+K2O products.US and Canadian commercial fertilizer consumption of N+P2O5+K2O products.

    7. PPI Soil Test Summary Results >2.5 million samples from public & private labs, from fall 2000 through spring 2001 47 % test medium or lower in P

    8. Percentage of soils testing medium or lower in P

    9. U.S. fertilizer phosphorus production and uses

    10. U.S. production compared to potential manure P available

    11. Sources of P from recycled animal manure

    12. Marketing Animal By-product Phosphorus to Areas of Concentrated Crop Production Poultry litter has considerable potential to be made into organic fertilizer products. However, the marketing of the products needs to include the feed and food grains to recycle all the embodied phosphorus. The products must be readily storable and transportable to be handle as a backhaul in the same transportation vehicle that brought the feed grains.Poultry litter has considerable potential to be made into organic fertilizer products. However, the marketing of the products needs to include the feed and food grains to recycle all the embodied phosphorus. The products must be readily storable and transportable to be handle as a backhaul in the same transportation vehicle that brought the feed grains.

    13. Phosphorus in harvested crops is an indicator of long term demand by county. Commercial phosphorus sold is an indicator of current demand. Phosphorus available from confined animal manures is an indicator of amount and location of manure phosphorus. Phosphorus in harvested crops is an indicator of long term demand by county. Commercial phosphorus sold is an indicator of current demand. Phosphorus available from confined animal manures is an indicator of amount and location of manure phosphorus.

    14. Phosphorus processes

    15. Pre-CRP simulated P loss/acre for soils with high CRP enrollment (conventionally tilled crops)

    21. Models provide us reasonable information for assessing impacts

    22. Annual average baseline P concentrations in Upper Shoal Creek To be compared with the baseline P concentrations at the outlet of the watershedTo be compared with the baseline P concentrations at the outlet of the watershed

    24. Lawrence/Barry Counties Representative Broiler Farm Projected accumulated soil phosphorus in top six inches of soil

    25. Projected phosphorus loading in field runoff

    26. Farm runoff P when no litter is applied, evaluated to illustrate solutions will not likely be immediate On the runoff side, the decrease of phosphorus concentration in runoff would be slower, 30% in 50 years. Grazing cattle bring a constant input of phosphorus at the soil surface, even though no poultry is applied.On the runoff side, the decrease of phosphorus concentration in runoff would be slower, 30% in 50 years. Grazing cattle bring a constant input of phosphorus at the soil surface, even though no poultry is applied.

    27. Annual average concentrations without litter, Upper Shoal Creek This describes what happens to average annual P concentrations at the outlet of Shoal Creek when litter is transported out of the watershed. Annual average P concentrations are estimated as flow weighed averages of the daily values. This estimation emphasizes the impact of large runoff events. Annual flow weighted average P concentrations are directly proportional to total annual loadings. Again N applications and grazing densities remained the same as they were before.This describes what happens to average annual P concentrations at the outlet of Shoal Creek when litter is transported out of the watershed. Annual average P concentrations are estimated as flow weighed averages of the daily values. This estimation emphasizes the impact of large runoff events. Annual flow weighted average P concentrations are directly proportional to total annual loadings. Again N applications and grazing densities remained the same as they were before.

    28. Demonstration strip harvesting

    29. Poultry litter demonstration

    30. Yield comparison

    32. Balance agricultural Phosphorus

    33. Producing energy from poultry & forestry byproducts

    34. How much poultry litter would it take to fuel a power plant?

    35. Litter supply – Springfield

    36. Estimated cost per Btu from coal & poultry litter Springfield, MO

    37. Riparian Buffers Buffers trap Sediment Phosphorus Fecal coliform Buffers produce Biomass

    39. Adopt/adapt new technologies biomass compressed to less than 50 % of original volume

    40. Current design of a biomass fuel compaction machine with about 3 ton/hr production rate

    41. Let’s examine the balance between regulations and feasibility of food production

    42. Field characteristics and their impact on nutrient recycling

    43. Field comparison of some of the impacts of alternative buffer width

    44. Field comparison of some of the impacts of alternative buffer width

    45. What are the impacts of buffer widths at a regional level?

    46. Competition among integrated poultry operations is required by antitrust laws

    47. Regional impacts of maintaining competition for consumer and producer products

    48. Packer and Stockyard regulations strongly encourage competition for contract poultry producers. To maintain competition, two integrated operations are assumed to exist.

    49. Integrated poultry producers in Southwest Missouri

    50. Regional impacts of 15 foot buffer widths

    51. Regional impacts of 100 foot buffer widths

    52. We’ve created impossible goals Our intentions were good at every point of the decision process Both economic and environmental decisions appear to be reasonable Holistic assessment says we’re not there yet A key issue is equitable allocation of costs and benefits

    53. Economic and Environmental Impacts Consumer impacts Farm impacts Watershed impacts Regional impacts

    54. Poultry History

    55. Consumer Savings

    56. Corn price effect of poultry feed demand

    57. Regional economic impacts of choices

    58. How do we stimulate cooperation and innovation? With lawsuits and penalties? City of Tulsa, Oklahoma sued poultry companies- settlement was $7.5 million with attorneys receiving over $7 million With rules and standards? With incentives? All of the above + public cost share? Premium Standard settlement penalty of $1 million $25 million set aside for research and capital improvement addressing air and water quality

    59. Cooperative Efforts

    60. Cooperative Efforts

    61. Thank You

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