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MLB Prediction

MLB Prediction. Group 25 陳乃群、趙冠琳 2011.06.07 Intro CS - Project presentation. MLB. Major League Baseball. Idea. Predict MLB games by own-made formulas . Analyze separately on pitchers and batters. Formula - batters. [(AB-SO) × (TB/AB)+BB+SB} × (H/AB)+HR Inning ( 局 )

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MLB Prediction

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  1. MLB Prediction Group 25 陳乃群、趙冠琳 2011.06.07 Intro CS - Project presentation

  2. MLB • Major League Baseball

  3. Idea • Predict MLB games by own-made formulas. • Analyze separately on pitchers and batters.

  4. Formula - batters • [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR • Inning (局) • AtBats(AB, 打數) • StrikeOuts(SO, 三振數) • Total Bases (TB, 壘打數) • Base on Balls (BB, 保送數) • StolenBase(SB, 盜壘數) • Hits (H, 安打數) • Home Runs (HR，全壘打數)

  5. Total bases (TB) • A single (一壘安打) -> TB+1 • A double (二壘安打) ->TB+2

  6. Formula - batters • [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR • Inning (局) • AtBats(AB, 打數) • StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數) • Total Bases (TB, 壘打數) • Base on Balls (BB, 保送數) • StolenBase(SB, 盜壘數) • Hits (H, 安打數) • Home Runs (HR，全壘打數) ↑ 打擊率 Battingaverage ↑ TotalBases (afteradjustment)

  7. Formula - batters • [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR • The scores that the batters can get in a game

  8. Formula-pitchers

  9. the possibility that a batter can be on base ↓ Formula–starters • {[(BF-SO)/IP]×[(BB+H)/IP]×BA‘×IP/G}/α+HR/G • totalBattersFaced(BF, 面對打者數) • StrikeOuts(SO, 三振數) • Innings Pitched (IP, 投球局數) • Base on Balls (BB, 保送數) • Games(G, 投球場數) • BA’(BAoftheopponent, 被打擊率) • α (own- set scalar for adjustment) ↑ BA of the opponent ↑ number of batter

  10. Formula–starters • {[(BF-SO)/IP]×[(BB+H)/IP]×BA‘×IP/G}/α+HR/G • The scores that a starting pitcher may lose in a game

  11. Formula - relievers • Starters : scheduled • Discussing each pitcher separately • Relievers : unscheduled • Use the average statistics

  12. Formula – relievers • WHIP×(H/IP)×IP‘/α • WalksandHitsperInningPitched(WHIP) • IP’ (average innings that the relievers may pitch, depending on the starter) • H/IP: the average hits that a pitcher may allow in a inning

  13. Ratio • 60% pitcher (starters and relievers) • Ratio of starters and relievers depend on the average innings that a starter can pitch • Starters • 66.7% last-3-game • 33.3% last-10-game • Relievers • 100% Season • 40% batter • 62.5% last-7-day • 37.5% season

  14. Result

  15. Result

  16. Future • Adding more factors • Standings (戰績) • Home/away (主客場) • Fielding (守備)

  17. Goal • 60+% success rate

  18. The End • Thank you for listening!

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