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Verification of the ARPS Model Forecast of Sea Breeze Related Cloud Systems

Verification of the ARPS Model Forecast of Sea Breeze Related Cloud Systems . Jaclyn Shafer Department of Marine and Environmental Systems Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, Florida July 20, 2005. Overview. The ARPS Model Other ARPS Verification Studies Cloud Base Height Study

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Verification of the ARPS Model Forecast of Sea Breeze Related Cloud Systems

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  1. Verification of the ARPS Model Forecast of Sea Breeze Related Cloud Systems Jaclyn Shafer Department of Marine and Environmental Systems Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, Florida July 20, 2005

  2. Overview • The ARPS Model • Other ARPS Verification Studies • Cloud Base Height Study • Review

  3. The ARPS Model • What is ARPS? • Advanced Regional Prediction System • Forecasts in 30 minute Intervals • 20 Vertical Pressure Levels

  4. Other ARPS Verification Studies • Convective Initiation – J. Bellemore • ARPS Prediction of Position and Timing • Sea Breeze Front – K. Howell • Evaluation of NAM and ARPS

  5. Convective Initiation Study June 14, 2005 ARPS Radar Reflectivity Prediction Observed Radar Imagery 2:30 pm Forecast 6:30 pm

  6. Sea Breeze Front Study June 16, 2005 NAM Convergence Forecast ARPS Convergence Forecast 2:00 pm 2:00 pm

  7. Cloud Base Height Study • What is a Cloud Base? • Why is the Model Cloud Base Height Prediction Important? • Aviation • Military Operations • Storm Development

  8. Cloud Base Height StudyDetermining Cloud Base Height

  9. Cloud Base Height StudyDetermining Cloud Base cont… INSERT SOUNDING

  10. Cloud Base Height StudyDetermining ARPS Cloud Base Height Predictions Example of ARPS file

  11. US-1 Melbourne Causeway US-192 Front Street Park Triple N Ranch US-192 Study Locations Indialantic Beach A1A Maps Courtesy of Terra Server

  12. June 8, 2005 ARPS Predicted 1000 meters Higher than Observed Poor Prediction June 16, 2005 Times from IRT and ARPS Did Not Overlap Inconclusive Cloud Base Height StudyConclusions

  13. Review • Other ARPS Verification Studies • Convective Initiation • ARPS Very Good at Predicting Positions • Early 1 to 4 hours • Sea Breeze Front Study • ARPS Depicted Front Better than NAM • Cloud Base Height Study • ARPS Predicted Higher than Observed

  14. Acknowledgements • Jonathan Bellemore – Convective Initiation • Kyle Howell – Sea Breeze Front • National Weather Service – ARPS Model Any Questions? Daniel Tyndall

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