Climate Test Bed (CTB) and CPC/CTB-RISA Program

1. Climate Test Bed (CTB) andCPC/CTB-RISA Program Briefing to Dan Walker Chief, CASD CPO November 12, 2009 Fiona Horsfall Director, Climate Test Bed

2. Advancing Climate Prediction:The Climate Test Bed • Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office • Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research communities • Mission • To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services • Research to Operations (R2O) • Operations to Research (O2R) • Focus Areas • CFS Improvements • Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems • Climate Forecast Products • Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series • CPC/CTB - RISA Program • Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY10)

3. Announcement of Opportunity (AO) NCEP collaborators for projects LOI / Proposals Links to NIDIS CRM Proposal / grants process managed by CPO (Jin Huang) 1/3 NCEP research computer Projects Balance available for internal experiments CTB Basic Structure New Terms of Reference (under development) • Steering Committee • To provide guidance and knowledge on CTB issues • Contribute to setting priorities • Oversight Board • Science Advisory Board Moving 2012?

4. Climate Test BedCurrently Funded Projects • 10 ongoing projects • 1 transitioned in FY08/9 • 1 approaching transition (not funded for FY09) • 1 identified as unsuitable for transition FY08 • 3 for transition in FY09 • 4 for transition in FY10 • FY09 • 3 new starts • Support for NIDIS pilot project CPC/OHD/CBRFC • Support for post doc at COLA to evaluate GFDL model for MME

5. Focus areas Dynamics Physics Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Land Cryosphere CFS V1 (Aug 2004) Atmosphere & ocean DA Real time 9-month forecasts 25 years of hindcasts CFS V2 (Jan 2010) CFS Reanalysis & Reforecast (CFSRR) project (ongoing) Coupled O-A-L-Sea Ice DA 1979-2009 Coupled reforecasts initialized from coupled reanalysis, 1981-2009 Focus Area:CFS Improvements Goal To accelerate improvements of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use as a skillful tool in providing NCEP’s climate predictions for decision making.

6. Focus Area:Multi-Model Ensembles Goal A multi model ensemble prediction system that leverages the best national and international models for improved predictions on intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales • Activities • Consolidation techniques • Verification • MME Prediction System • International MME (NCEP, EUROSIP Models) • National MME (NCEP,GFDL,NASA,NCAR) • Developing strategy / white paper • Post-doc at COLA to evaluate MME with GFDL and NCEP

7. Climate Forecast Products Goal To provide reliable climate forecast products that are responsive to the needs of users and incorporate state-of-the-art science and research. • Relationships with partners • Delivery of useful products • Continuous flow of user requirements • Strong research component • Activities • Forecast Evaluation Tool • Forecast evaluation; data access and display capability • GIS in GRADS • Drought (NIDIS) products • Through CPC/CTB-RISA collaboration • Extreme events products • Regional applications • User identification / needs / feedback

8. CTB Seminar Series For 2008-2009 Schedule of Speakers Schedule and past presentations available at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb

9. Looking Ahead: Proposed Activities • Expand CPC/CTB-RISA Program • POCs to new RISAS • Targeted products/regional applications • Visiting Scientist Program (VSP) • Model Test Facility (MTF) • Climate and Health: links to Oceans and Human Health Initiative (OHHI) • Coasts, Marine Spatial Planning, Ecosystems, Air Quality, Water, Arctic, etc. • What are climate information needs for delivery systems?

10. CPC/CTB-RISA Program • “White Paper” outlined strategy for working with partners FY08 • Workplans developed for Points of Contact (POC) at CPC to work with RISA counterparts • Accomplishments (selected) • Several NIDIS activities, including engaging the NIDIS community to share objective drought monitoring products • Developed the Multimodal Surface Water Monitor to improve drought monitoring (U. Washington) • Post-doc at CPC for 4 weeks to use CFS datasets for research on cotton yield forecasts over the southeastern US (SECC) • Updated the Pacific Rainfall Atlas, “A Precipitation Climatology for Stations in the Tropical Basin; Effects of ENSO” for publication (Pacific RISA) • Identified western region users for feedback on ENSO products (WWA) • Collaboration on storm track monitoring and outreach (ACCAP)

11. CPC/CTB-RISA Program • Seed funding from CPO RISA Program • $25K – FY07 • $35K – FY08 • FY09 – expanded program to incorporate CTB • CPO funding increased ($60K) to support CTB and CPC/CTB-RISA Program activities • Focus: Improving CPC (NWS) Products and Services in Partnership with the External Community

12. CPC/CTB-RISA Program • Activities supported FY09 • Engaging the external community in collaboration with RISAs in the development of CPC products and services • CPASW (~$10K) • AASC • Climate Working Group (program discussion) • CR Regional Climate Services Development meeting • Hydrometeorological Test Bed meeting in SE US • Sponsorship to support outreach • Hawaii Conservation Conference • AMS Applied Climatology Committee Short Course Datasets for Use in Climate Applications: Access, Use and Tools • Mini-Proposals (~$30K)

13. Status/Request • The CPC/CTB-RISA Program is active, productive • CPC has fostered strong, mutually beneficial relationships with the RISAs and related entities to improve NOAA’s service to stakeholders • With $100K for FY10, the program will be responsive to a broader community by improving climate services in support of NOAA’s Climate Services